Wot Happens Next?

[foroom lluzers]

So if you risked £10 on a trade that went £1000 to the good and then came right back and triggered your stop loss then you'd pat yourself on the back for just losing £10 would you? I'd be going hairless because I'd lost £1010.

The difficulty with breakeven move is that it increases the probability of getting taken out of a £1,000 profit , more frequently than not.It becomes very rare to see the £1k ,then you end up in a cycle of making brokers rich , by re-entering trades and paying the same spread a dozen times .This is very good , if you operate a bucket shop or are on rebates ,but not good for traders

 

[barjon]

Well, the trade is still open (although I've chickened out as fl would have it ) despite a reluctance to follow through on the morning momentum each of the last three days. Higher closes each day though.

One of the reasons I closed on Thursday is that I really had no business still being in the trade after Wednesday's action. The (my) rationale for the trade was to to catch momentum on the assumption that it would follow the break. The stoploss there to limit loss if that assumption didn't pan out and placed on a possibility that the initial move might be to close the opening gap..

In this case there was indeed good momentum taking price to new highs whereupon it turned tail and ran to the extent that a 27 point gain became a 17 point loss by the close. Offends the fourth commandment that .

 

[foroom lluzers]

Trading is simple , but you have made it very complex .

Up channel , break of major resistance ,trend breakout with higher highs .Good entry was at 23.35 .
I meant earlier option at 2300 not 2400 .Presumably you mean stop @ 2300?yeah

Good trade.

 

[barjon]

Trading is simple , but you have made it very complex .

Up channel , break of major resistance ,trend breakout with higher highs .Good entry was at 23.35 .
I meant earlier option at 2300 not 2400 .Presumably you mean stop @ 2300?yeah

Good trade.

Er, but the up move is gonna fail - you've told us so several times.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Er, but the up move is gonna fail - you've told us so several times.

You trying to second guess this trade is going to make this trade fail , your emotions of fear (closed it) , your frustration of no move for hours .

Don't watch screen , it played into your mind trap and you closed.

 

[barjon]

You trying to second guess this trade is going to make this trade fail , your emotions of fear (closed it) , your frustration of no move for hours .

Don't watch screen , it played into your mind trap and you closed.

Don't you read? I'm quite content with my mind, thanks.

 

[mitch mconal]

Wonderful thread...another problem chart please.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Er, but the up move is gonna fail - you've told us so several times.

I was the only person positive on this trade , the others were hesitating and pussy footing , you yourself felt the reactive " cat amongst the pigeons " , and were getting scared.See your own posts!

That tells how many people given a profitable system , trend trade or set up will miss it.

 

[mitch mconal]

I'll comment I'm ready, give me another problem chart.

i will nail 8 out of 10.

 

[malaguti]

You trying to second guess this trade is going to make this trade fail , your emotions of fear (closed it) , your frustration of no move for hours .

Don't watch screen , it played into your mind trap and you closed.

you are second guessing that all breakouts fail, and here we are with a breakout that hasn't yet

 

[foroom lluzers]

you are second guessing that all breakouts fail, and here we are with a breakout that hasn't yet

80% of the trends turn into consolidation/ ranges , it is a statistical fact.Go do some research.

 

[malaguti]

80% of the trends turn into consolidation/ ranges , it is a statistical fact.Go do some research.

all trend will at some point go into a range dummy. you saying 20% of trends go on forever? go do your own

 

[foroom lluzers]

all trend will at some point go into a range dummy. you saying 20% of trends go on forever? go do your own

There are plenty of skeletons of breakout gurus here and on the internet , just search hard on free google with breakout t2w .The indices are currently trending higher , due to lack of yields on fx and money chasing fewer opportunities.These are exceptional times.

One breakout trade ,which he closed , but let us assume he re-entered in foresight for the benefit of the discussion.In normal situations , without so much money chasing fewer equities , 80 % of these trends breakouts fail .A chart of 90 % failures is attached.

Eur usd on this chart may have trended ,only to hindsight traders , but in reality you can only see one trend in so many years .

How many traders would want to spend 6 months infront of a screen for £1,000 less losses , suffering 7 /8 trend breakout failures and 2 wins .When traders have 7/8 failures , they give up , humans simply can't take this.

Breakout trading is difficult , except for people who are all talk and no trousers , they can't put up 10 consecutive breakout trades in advance .

So Barjon you have 9 more breakout calls to make in foresight.

 

[foroom lluzers]

all trend will at some point go into a range dummy. you saying 20% of trends go on forever? go do your own

Barjon is a great trader , he caught the trend .For years traders would have gotten chopped out , with breakout failures.


Traders would be better off buying at bottoms , supports of djia , as opposed to using this snake oil of breakouts.See chart on right , left is mr failure.

 

[foroom lluzers]

January 2017

Diageo’s reported operating profit rose by 28% to £2,065m during the six months to 31 December. Sales were 14.5% higher at £6,421m.

These figures were given a big boost by the collapse of the pound after the EU referendum. Excluding currency effects, Diageo’s organic operating profit rose by 4.4% during the last six months. However, that’s still a strong performance, and is double the 2.2% gain expected by analysts.

 

[darktone]

Wot Happens Next?

fl's gona post some bullsh!t :smart:

 

[tomorton]

fl's gona post some bullsh!t :smart:

Post of the year!

 

[malaguti]

There are plenty of skeletons of breakout gurus here and on the internet , just search hard on free google with breakout t2w .The indices are currently trending higher , due to lack of yields on fx and money chasing fewer opportunities.These are exceptional times.

One breakout trade ,which he closed , but let us assume he re-entered in foresight for the benefit of the discussion.In normal situations , without so much money chasing fewer equities , 80 % of these trends breakouts fail .A chart of 90 % failures is attached.

Eur usd on this chart may have trended ,only to hindsight traders , but in reality you can only see one trend in so many years .

How many traders would want to spend 6 months infront of a screen for £1,000 less losses , suffering 7 /8 trend breakout failures and 2 wins .When traders have 7/8 failures , they give up , humans simply can't take this.

Breakout trading is difficult , except for people who are all talk and no trousers , they can't put up 10 consecutive breakout trades in advance .

So Barjon you have 9 more breakout calls to make in foresight.

words are really escaping me on this one Lluzer. truly your statistical "research" is... and whats the best word...astonishing. Darktone indeed may have summed it up a little more succinctly, however I always assume there is a brain cell missing and I try to give the benefit of the doubt but in this case well i'm beaten
hands down. Yes this is statistical evidence (nay research) that 90% of all breakout trades do indeed fail. or was it 80%. I'm sure you said 80%
theres another chart you're not showing us, isn't there?
come on you ol' tease. show us another chart where 7 out of 10 have failed

anyway look, every village has one, and you are ours so for that we should be grateful

 

[foroom lluzers]

words are really escaping me on this one Lluzer. truly your statistical "research" is... and whats the best word...astonishing. Darktone indeed may have summed it up a little more succinctly, however I always assume there is a brain cell missing and I try to give the benefit of the doubt but in this case well i'm beaten
hands down. Yes this is statistical evidence (nay research) that 90% of all breakout trades do indeed fail. or was it 80%. I'm sure you said 80%
theres another chart you're not showing us, isn't there?
come on you ol' tease. show us another chart where 7 out of 10 have failed

anyway look, every village has one, and you are ours so for that we should be grateful

Oh I get it , this place is about snake oil marketing of breakouts to noobs , any one else who opens his mouth , is considered a village idiot.He gets pissed on by the fls.

 

[barjon]

............So Barjon you have 9 more breakout calls to make in foresight................

Oh, fl, what are we going to do with you.

Let's make a couple of things clear since you must have missed it:

1. The thread is supposed to be about using TA as a tool for trading - both entry and exit (more important)

2. It is NOT about the merits or otherwise of a break out strategy
3. It is NOT about the merits or otherwise of trading Diageo
4. It is NOT about making successful calls
5. It is NOT about giving you a platform to air your trading prejudices

In fact, since you seem to regard TA as a load of hogwash, I'm surprised that you comment at all. You certainly don't have anything constructive to offer.