Wilder Delta and Adam

[DaveJB]

I think Skim confused a little bit of info here, combining a cycle period with a cycle count. The lunar cycle repeats at 28 day intervals, Skim is I believe talking about making a longer term cycle up out of 4 lunar ones. Skim was pointing out an observation - that when looking for significant effects every full moon or whenever you go off the idea pdq as it doesn't seem to work, and suggesting that a multiple of that period might be the appropriate value to use.
I would caution anyone reading this, or any of the usergroup stuff on the web, that nobody has published 'The' Delta method or enough to join the dots, as far as I've seen so far anyway... in fact you can get more accurate info from analysing the charts posted publicly on the Delta site!
I HAVE seen some very misleading stuff generated by obvious dot joining - the only way to learn Delta is to buy the book. It isn't for the faint hearted - to use it you'll either spend a huge amount of time hand charting stuff or pay a couple of grand for the software.
Dave

 

[Bigbusiness]

Has anyone read the Ocean Theory book?

It is written by Jim Sloman, the man who originated the Delta theory.

http://www.genesisft.com/ocean/TheOceanBook.asp

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Yes.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Hi Skim,

I can't find much information about the book. Did you find it useful? I am pleased with the Delta book but I had an idea of what I would get from it before I bought it. Ocean theory is something I know nothing about.

 

[Skimbleshanks]

I bought my Ocean book in 2002; its number is in the early 200s, so there weren't that many around when I bought my copy. I've never come across anyone else who knows about Ocean or who has the book which is a pity as it would be nice to discuss it (just like with Delta, it's nice to know if you've reached the same conclusions for a particular market).

The book is simplistic in layout and functional. It's obviously protected by copyright so I'll just tell you the things it covers: the ocean equation, the ocean index, natural market mirrors, natural market rivers, the Zen moment, and the law of reverse effect.

The book goes through each, explaining what it is and why, and gives a way for you to work it out these 'indicators' using a spreadsheet. It's all quite mathematical. I may have done pure maths and applied maths at A level, but it certainly didn't help me when reading the book.

But there is still an element of arbitrariness to Ocean as it is presented in the book; and that is an invitation for those who love to take things further. In other words it is a mathematician's delight.

In the book Sloman states: "... it is advantageous to develop at least partially your own approach to markets. The Advanced Ocean Software that is part of the Ocean Master program is designed to give you a set of tools with which to develop your own market innovations, should you wish to do that."

And as with anything at this level of sophistication, it is definitely not for beginners, or even intermediates, as there is virtually nothing on how you actually trade using ocean. The book is actually called 'Ocean Theory; an Introduction' so that says it all.

All in all, it's very much like Delta - great to know about, but virtually impossible to use in isolation for trading, yet when mixed with other knowledge, it is good to have. And just like Delta, it tells you the theory and how to work it out, and leaves you to get off your backside and put in the work. So the lazy and mathematically-challenged will find it a waste of money ...

 

[Bigbusiness]

Thanks Skim. That was just what I was looking for. Having enjoyed the Delta book, I think I will probably buy this one at some point. Mathematics does fascinate me and I enjoy spending hours working out ideas with spreadsheets.

 

[a320]

Hey BB...

If you like this kind of stuff, then Lubicz work is a must for some core grounding imho... nothing to do with trading for the mainstream! but everything is covered for those who aren't part of the indicator world.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...102-7654289-9271305?v=glance&s=books&n=507846


CJ

 

[Skimbleshanks]

I'm always amazed at how 'heavy' your bedtime reading is, a320. :cheesy:

 

[Bigbusiness]

That book certainly looks interesting. You don't see this written about many books:-

Editorial Reviews
Atlantis Rising

The Temple of Man is an accomplishment of truly Herculean proportions. Nothing written in the past two hundred years, with the exception of only one book, even approaches it in enormity of purpose, scope, subject matter, majesty and profundity. . . . One needs to learn to read this book and then immerse oneself in it. Were one to do this, and assuming diligence, sincerity, determination and some ingenuity by the reader, the outcome toward which all human life is aimed, the evolution of consciousness is assured.

 

[Peter]

Hi SS

I dont know if you feel your allowed to discuss the delta cycles in any detail,

BUT a few things I dont think were very clearly stated in TDP ( delta book )

I only recently obtained it and only have read it once so i may have overlooked something.

Theres mention of a 4 yearly, 1 yearly 4 monthly and 4 day cycle.

I reallise some are classed as Lunar cycles, BUT IM still not clear on for eg the Yearly one

A normal year as we know it is about 365 cal days or 12 months

But the eg of this lunar year in Delta as i understand it is 1 lunar year is how many cycles of the moon is in a year. SO IF its on average a 28 day cycle for the moon to orbit the earth as I understand it, THEN is there 12 or 13 lunar cycles in 356 cal days?

12 x 28 cds is 336 days and 13 x 28 cal days is 364 days VERY close to a normal year.

Yet the eg given in the book OF WHICH THERE IS ONLY ONE related to the yearly cycle is ONLY about 353 days.. Tide to Tide Something like Feb 18th 1984 to Feb 6th 85 if i recall.

On checking the dow for eg I DONT THINK this 353 day cycle has great consistancy although some are close.

If one then uses a 4 year cycle UNLESS they have an accurate yearly cycle How on earth( pardon the pun ) can you expect a 4 yearly to be any where near correct

I have noted however there is a regular 4 yealy cycle on the Dow which impresses me, BUT its NOT very consistant in accuracy of being all near the same ammount of days.

So the 4 monthly Im assuming is 4 lunar cycles of approx 28 x 4 = about 112 days

To me so far they DONT make it clear.

Id appreciate any feed back on this..

Thks pete

Perhaps I didn't make my statement that clear - I meant that the general assumption is that if a lunar cycle is 28 days (full moon to full moon or new moon to new moon) then the vast majority of people when looking for a lunar cycle concentrate on the 28 days period. And then pooh-pooh astronomy because they can't find any consistent cycle within the 28 days.

So the majority rubbish moon cycles, because they're looking in the wrong time frame!

I agree with you - it is great to have in your tricks of the trade box, but I would not be able to make money using Delta in isolation.

 

[Peter]

But the eg of this lunar year in Delta as i understand it is 1 lunar year is how many cycles of the moon is in a year. SO IF its on average a 28 day cycle for the moon to orbit the earth as I understand it, THEN is there 12 or 13 lunar cycles in 356 cal days?

Sorry typo error meant 365 days NOT 356 days

 

[a320]

Hi peter I'm not sure what you asking....but for the esoteric stuff R J Skinner is a good place for reference.. I think its even free to read on Kessinger.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos...1639/sr=1-6/ref=sr_1_11_6/026-3500879-0123633

http://site.ebrary.com/pub/kessinger/

Easier to go a lot more in depth on the other site....

 

[Peter]

Hi CJ

IF I recall you have the delta book.

What I was asking Skimble shanks was about the Delta yearly cycle.

If you look in the Delta book there is an example of How Jim Solman ( Forgive me if ive got his name wrong without rechchecking ) found the yearly lunar cycle based on tidal tables.

When one works out the amount of days between the two dates he mentioned it was 353 cal days.

I was trying to compare this to the ammount of moon cycles in 1 year , ie the amount of times the moon revolves around the Earth in 1 standard year as we know it ( 365 cal days )

IF the moon Averages 28 cal days to complete its revolution around the Earth, then in one period of 365 cal days it makes 13 cycles. 13 x 28 cds = 364 cal days. ( HOWEVER I DONT doubt 28 cal days is only an estimate and it could be 28.6 or even 29 cds Ill Have to try and re check )

If it was only 12 revolutions in a year this is 12 x 28 = 336 cal days

What I was saying in the Delta eg as I describe above, It was 353 Cal days. THIS is inbetween the 12 or 13 revolutions of the Earth.

Upon testing this 353 day cycle I DIDnt find it greatly consistant.

In the 12th March 03 Low on the SPX to the March 5th to 8th Top we did see a turn in the mkt of about 366 - 7 days = 359 Cds

( I say 366 as year 2000 was a leap year) and if I take the 12th and - 5th I get 7 days. IF I took the 8th from the 12th id get 4 days to take away from 366 which would give 362 days NEAR to 13 moon cycles.

So that example is close to the Lunar year based upon 13 lunar revolutions in 1 year or 365/366 cal days

BUT ITs NOT 353 ! MAYBE IM being to critical as its only 6 to 9 days out.

BUT thats ONLY one example that Ive found it relatively close.

IM just trying to find out if it has any real true accuracy.

Hope you understand roughly what im trying to find out..

Pete

 

[Peter]

I say 366 as year 2000 was a leap year) and if I take the 12th and - 5th I get 7 days. IF I took the 8th from the 12th id get 4 days to take away from 366 which would give 362 days NEAR to 13 moon cycles.


I WAS Writing too quickly I should have said 2004 was a leap year NOT 2000 in the above eg
( although year 2000 was a leap year four years before)

 

[Peter]

Just found this link on the moon

http://www.astro.uu.nl/~strous/AA/en/antwoorden/maan.html#v283


this was under a question How many times does the Moon orbit around the Earth each year? in the Question and Answers section

I gets a bit Complicated AND IM NOT sure which Value I should consider

27 days 7 hours OR even upto 29 days are mentioned between whats described as Sidereal and Synodical months.. ANYone any Ideas ????

the sidereal month: the period after which the Moon has returned to the same position (longitude) between the stars. On average, the sidereal month is now 27 days, 7 hours, and 43 minutes long. There are on average about 13.37 sidereal months in a tropical year.
the synodical month: the period after which the Moon attains the same phase again. The synodical month is now 29 days, 12 hours, 44 minutes, and 3 seconds on average. The are on average about 12.37 synodical months in a tropical year.



The Month
It takes the Moon one month to orbit around the Earth. There are no mile markers in space, so you can only tell if the Moon has completed another orbit if you compare its position with something else. You can pick different things to compare its position with, so you can define different kinds of months.

the calendar month: a period of between 28 and 31 days that divides calendars. In some calendars, such as the Gregorian calendar that is used in the West, the months are no longer directly tied to the phases of the Moon. In other calendars, such as the Jewish and Islamic calendars, each month starts with a specific phase of the Moon. In some calendars (such as the Gregorian calendar and the Islamic calendar) each year has 12 calendar months, in other calendars (such as the Jewish calendar) some years have 12 months and some have 13 months, and in yet other calendars there are still other numbers of months in a year.
the sidereal month: the period after which the Moon has returned to the same position (longitude) between the stars. On average, the sidereal month is now 27 days, 7 hours, and 43 minutes long. There are on average about 13.37 sidereal months in a tropical year.
the synodical month: the period after which the Moon attains the same phase again. The synodical month is now 29 days, 12 hours, 44 minutes, and 3 seconds on average. The are on average about 12.37 synodical months in a tropical year.
the tropical month: the period after which the Moon returns to the same position relative to the vernal equinox. On average, the tropical month is now 27 days, 7 hours, 43 minutes, and 12 seconds long. There are about 12.37 tropical months in a tropical year.
the anomalistic month: the period after which the Moon returns to the same position relative to its perigee. This month is currently 27 days, 13 hours, and 19 minutes long on average. There are about 13.26 anomalistic months in a tropical year.
the draconitic month: the period after which the Moon returns to the same node of its orbit. On average, this month is now 27 days, 5 hours, 5 minutes, and 6 seconds long. There are about 13.42 draconitic months in a tropical year.
Except for the calendar month, none of these months fits into a calendar year a whole number of times, so there is always a bit left over.

 

[Peter]

I just discoved this !!!!

If I use the moons revolution around the Earth as 27 hrs and 5 hrs ( Draconitic month )as one of the examples and x it by 13

I get 353 cal days This is the cycle used in Deltas 1 year cycle... ......

27 days x 13 = 351 calendar days

5 hrs x 13 = 65 hrs...... 65 / 24 hrs = 2.7 days

351 days + 2.7 days = 353.7 cal days.


I wonder !



(the draconitic month: the period after which the Moon returns to the same node of its orbit. On average, this month is now 27 days, 5 hours, 5 minutes, and 6 seconds long. There are about 13.42 draconitic months in a tropical year.
Except for the calendar month, none of these months fits into a calendar year a whole number of times, so there is always a bit left over.)

 

[AndyGadget]

Welles Wilder wrote a brilliant book (new concepts in technical trading) as well as developing some useful indicators. Then He went and wrote the Delta Phenomenon, which is apparently about how the markets are cyclical and in tune with lunar and solar cycles. Normally I would dismiss this as utter rubbish, but its difficult given Wilders pedigree.

My thoughts exactly.

I got my copy of The Delta Phenomenon via eBay; copies do come up occasionally. It was shipped from the states and cost about £35 all in. I'm currently writing my own (basic, in more ways than one) software to 'solve delta' for medium, intermediate and long term. It's encouraging that some posters here have found the Delta principles to be of use.

I hate the style of the book, though.

Andy.

 

[DaveJB]

I'd not get too bogged down in decimal points of days in a Delta period, Delta doesn't for a start!
I'd agree with the presentation comment - the small book that accompanies it (the secret to wealth or whatever it's called) is cringingly bad, however, making the Delta book itself almost normal by comparison <g>
One thing you can't say about W-W, 'modest, unassuming guy, isn't he?'
Dave

 

[a320]

Its hard to do when there's two inversion points ( At the end on the 4 day cycle & the start) ie blue & orange days...( which our friend mr wilder leaves out of the book)

Btw today was a blue day..... ( On the S&P)

 

[TheBramble]

Gentlemen, step back and take a look....please.