AsifA said:
I would hope a surgeon would also show up with the most important tool of all - A calm collected mind not fused with multifarious, confused peptides. I would also hope he brought the character borne of living a balanced, examined life. This topic is about the 79.8% that flat out fail. A huge portion of that group are no where close to being emotionally balanced enough to adapt and persist long enough to make it. And most of them misallocate their energies acquiring and honing new ‘tools’. Won’t work - just as handing them a set of much better golf clubs would not make their golf game “thrive”
counter_violent
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Felix1 said:
Has to be true, like any other walk of life ....someone be it comparing individuals or companies or funds or whatever has to be top and then varying degrees thereafter.
rols
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counter_violent said:
Few thoughts....
I personally wouldn't believe any kind of statistics...
The 80/20 law was evident from schooldays. Define 'succeed'
Over which period of time (there are many big name traders who blew out twice or more who 'succeeded')
My Uncle Harry lived in a yukky bedsit, lived off meals-on-wheels and died with £350K in penny shares. Is that success? (He wasn't my real uncle BTW)
Someone who starts out with £250K inherited from granny is going to have more chance of 'succeeding' than the guy who gambles with his rent money.
How many traders here are actually sufficiently capitalised?
There again thinking correctly may have something to do with it..
Jack o'Clubs
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What, he liked you to go round to his yucky bedsit and just asked you to call him 'uncle'rols said:
charliechan
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Felix1 said:
here is some correspondence from victor niederhoffer which perfectly illustrates the benefits of
deciding where the bottoms and tops of markets occur...
What caused the stock market to go up 15% last year? (Aside from the fact that stock yields (with growth) were 6 percentage points or so higher than bonds, as they are this year, and since 1980, there have been nine of nine big rises on such occasions.) It was certainly the big decline in May. It got everybody on the wrong foot. It set up hope among the bears and fear among the bulls. And it allowed the big brokers to make a fast profit before they raised their allocations of stocks and buy recommendations for the techs, the better to make a few billion for the bonus pool without making too much of a dent in the trillions of longs that they must carry at low borrowing rates, that must go up or else by the end of the year.
My arguement is that trading is simple, and doesn't require the intellect of a rocket scientist. There is so much wool over the core rationale of trading, and its become all so mystic and voodoo ! You can be in any state of mind as long as your faculties are still present. You could be angry or in an enlightened state of bliss, but if you can read what is before you then there is no issue. If the market is going up before your eyes, irrespective of what state of mind you are in why would you go short ? As to this 80% failure rate, URBAN LEGEND ! To quote .." there are lies, lies, and statistics
Re: The accuracy of “the statistic”. That’s a reasonable question. I don’t really know. However, industry and academic studies indicate a failure rate of about 80 – 90 % in the futures markets on a ‘by account’ basis. Anecdotally, in another lifetime, at another place far away, for severaI years I was in the discount futures IB business, and those stats held up there big time! My working conclusion – generally the Pareto Principle is alive and well in the leveraged trading of paper and I suspect it’s alive and well throughout the whole financial ‘industry’ on a ‘by account’ basis. This ‘statistic’ is misused, though, in that all the losers are lumped together when there are actually many ‘why’s ‘so few’ succeed… and losers looking for answers will ultimately need to turn away from software, forums, books, other traders, even coaches, etc and turn to self…
‘forty efn uncles’ contributed to uncle harry’s pot. few of them were below average intelligence some of them didn’t learn how to handle heat. some of them didn’t learn how to handle prosperity. some of them didn’t know how to truly be resilient and make instant recovery from losses. some of them unconsciously but genuinely preferred delusions to reality. some of them never became aware of the conflicts and polarities they swung through in their trading lives. some of them gave up right before breakthroughs. some of them brought in pre-existing patterns to their trading world that did them in (ppl cling to patterns – whether those patterns are really adaptive or not) … and we’re still not to the real meat of these ‘whys’…
AsifA, re: “You can be in any state of mind” – I must disagree. Across time (ie consistently) - An unbalanced trader is attracted to ‘bad’ deals. A disturbed trader cannot see opportunities AND cannot train his computer to see same opportunities. An emotionally flooded or depleted trader cannot correctly know which “cool tool” to grab. A conflicted trader cannot manage exits… To compete at a high level (whether taking on the ‘big boys’ is in one’s gestalt or not) absolutely requires having an immaculate mental game. AsifA, it could be that you are so together that you simply cannot comprehend the possibility of ‘psychological’ issues or maybe you had them, dealt with them, and can no even longer relate to them – this is feasible and I’m being serious and respectful, not facetious. If so, I urge you to participate in threads where you have authentic insights instead of encouraging ‘seekers’ to ignore the very things they must master before taking on more tools and techniques.
“90% of the game is half mental” Yogi Berra
http://www.rinkworks.com/said/yogiberra.shtml
‘forty efn uncles’ contributed to uncle harry’s pot. few of them were below average intelligence some of them didn’t learn how to handle heat. some of them didn’t learn how to handle prosperity. some of them didn’t know how to truly be resilient and make instant recovery from losses. some of them unconsciously but genuinely preferred delusions to reality. some of them never became aware of the conflicts and polarities they swung through in their trading lives. some of them gave up right before breakthroughs. some of them brought in pre-existing patterns to their trading world that did them in (ppl cling to patterns – whether those patterns are really adaptive or not) … and we’re still not to the real meat of these ‘whys’…
AsifA, re: “You can be in any state of mind” – I must disagree. Across time (ie consistently) - An unbalanced trader is attracted to ‘bad’ deals. A disturbed trader cannot see opportunities AND cannot train his computer to see same opportunities. An emotionally flooded or depleted trader cannot correctly know which “cool tool” to grab. A conflicted trader cannot manage exits… To compete at a high level (whether taking on the ‘big boys’ is in one’s gestalt or not) absolutely requires having an immaculate mental game. AsifA, it could be that you are so together that you simply cannot comprehend the possibility of ‘psychological’ issues or maybe you had them, dealt with them, and can no even longer relate to them – this is feasible and I’m being serious and respectful, not facetious. If so, I urge you to participate in threads where you have authentic insights instead of encouraging ‘seekers’ to ignore the very things they must master before taking on more tools and techniques.
“90% of the game is half mental” Yogi Berra
http://www.rinkworks.com/said/yogiberra.shtml
rols
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ZDO said:
Good post.
When I see something like this it's time to peer into the abyss...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6684.htm
'A man who hath no fear soon get bitten on bottom by big bear.'
Chinese proverb (not really)
Thank you for your input. I am far from a cool calm enlightened individual. Truth be known I am wishy washy and swing like a pendulum emotively. And the points you have raised are salient and very important. Yesterday I experienced a few of those actions highlighted so I missed an opportunity as I hesitated to get a good price and then went into emotive conflict as to how long I should be in the position. My point however is you have to approach trading on a systems level. This method takes away the psychology I do my calculations (mathematically) and if they meet my set criteria, I commit. And I am 80 - 90% right on each occasion Sure I have to sweat it out if the move doesn't happen immediately in the direction I expected it to. Thats when I start questioning my model, however this approach minimises my risk but I also forgo opportunities. One issue I have noted is that although we have a forum, no one has shared a concise methodology of trading (and I am guilty of that)
[yes you are probably right. the problem is that there is so much out there you really can be taken for a ride financiallly. This system that system, take my money I will give you a system ! I have never worked in the financial industry. The first I heard of trading was through some article about Albert labos, whoever he his. But ultimately you have to develop it yourself, as I have done. Different tools for different market conditions. You must know the score.
Millano said:
Apologies if I'm duplicating, (I ain't readin' sixty odd pages) but more immediate concerns & pressures outside of trading?
I believe I had finally got to the point of actually making some real financial progress when my little world was turned upside down, resulting in the trading 'pot' being spent on child custody issues.
Once the divorce b*ll*cks is sorted, the pot will be replenished & I shall continue on my merry little way (hopefully
).
