Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[counter_violent]

A test of 10900 will come tomarrow. It will atleast touch that level I feel.

Intel should help the market.

We closed above 10850 which is positive.

Nasdaq doing well if you take in account that we came extremely close to testing1500.

Should be a positive day tomarrow.

870 may be a tough line to break , now back inside first six days open range of the year. Range loosely based on "Fisher".

 

[User]

Yeh you got a point but a one touch to 10900 may be possible.

 

[RUDEBOY]

10900 may be possible 'cause of unprocessed vol to the down over the past few days, but i think it needs to generate more supportive vol before any significant push back towards and through 11000. Of course, this is IMHO.

 

[peterpr]

Strange times. What could spook the market is worries about the continuing willingness of Asian countries to channel nearly $2 billion per day ! into US treasuries. Rising LT yields are a warning that deficit financing won't get any easier with all implications that has for rising rates bursting the us consumer credit and housing bubbles. Some see it as a house of cards just waiting for a strong gust of something to collapse the lot.

Further to the above. Although the spike was - as usual - just that, and corrected somewhat yesterday. It does confirm a jittery US bond market, with mounting pressure on US government ability to fnance its deficits from overseas. At present some 80% of US government debt is held by foreigners - mainly Japan, India and China and the figures are incomprehensively large. If they (foreign creditors) seek to reduce their dollar denominated holdings or become reluctant to plough their surpluses back into US bonds (by purchasing Euro Gold etc assets instead), then US bond prices will continue lower and interest rates higher. That's a nightmare scenario for the US economy which floats on sea of cheap easy credit (similar considerations apply to the UK too actually) Just how do they - and their creditors manage the situation without the whole thing hitting the buffers?

Current liberal use of smoke and mirrors in the shape of massaged CPI / employment etc statistics + Big Al's smooth tongue cannot continue indefinately - or can it?

 

[counter_violent]

What do we all think of Dow as it stands today. Will we see 10,600 before we see 11,000.

I'll stick my neck out and say 10,600

ehm not all in one day of course

 

[User]

Sunny day today.

Anyway we have a chance of 10900 today. Intel should help the trade deficit figures are out and the Euro and co were rallying but have now reversed the days gains and are currently down. So the markets should take that as dollar possitive.

Long at 10856 and 10866. I've placed a limit at 10900 but may move it as todays trading activity unfolds. Futures currently down slightly but we should see a higher open and hopefully I'm not being bias towards my trades.

Euro's playing with 134 as we speak.

I've added another position on the Dow long at 10859.

The crude oil position I had from yesterday is now closed.

 

[User]

A push towards 10900 should come now. Atleast an intraday touch seems likely.

 

[FetteredChinos]

for the 4th week running now it looks as though my mech strat is gonna come up trumps.

i really should listen to what it tells me. (exiting a discretionary on the break of 10800 looks clever in hindsight doesnt it.. )

still trying to find some decent Oil data..

bloody thing.

 

[lemput]

I think you may be right counter_violent. If we finish today below 10,900, the further away the better, it might just be enough to start putting the primary downwards especially if the 10 year note breaks down further!

 

[FetteredChinos]

11020 today or monday?

 

[FetteredChinos]

start of an ascending triangle forming..

still in its infancy.. mouth is approx 100pts. top line 10870.. target therefore 10,970.


hmm..

 

[counter_violent]

Dunno about u guys but I can feel a large drop coming on !!

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup, it does look ominous..

was targetting 10500 next week. thought we may get a decent move up before then though!!

 

[User]

Its looking rather weak. Upside movement just seems really muted! Doesn't really seem like 11,000 will happen. The top seems to be made! I thought we would test 10900 but its closer to 10800. Lets see how the session plays out!

 

[lemput]

10780. key level for me. get a break then we will test the bulls resolve. There's a fib line at 750 coinciding with a 30 day m.a and that might prove sticky. If it gets cleared(next week, not today!) then we could easily see 10,600

 

[RUDEBOY]

Peterpr, i don't really know? China( as a contender to the U.S.) as the worlds biggest economy, have probably got the same interests as the U.S. It's probably a case of one hand washes the other, i really don't know?

 

[peterpr]

Peterpr, i don't really know? China( as a contender to the U.S.) as the worlds biggest economy, have probably got the same interests as the U.S. It's probably a case of one hand washes the other, i really don't know?

Well it sure is problematical for ALL the big Dollar holders. If they show any sign of getting cold feet the Dollar could collapse and their holdings devalue accordingly. Not to mention sending the US into deep recession which would also impact pretty seriously on their own economies - a bit like cutting your nose off to spite your face ! Trouble is the Dollar has devalued over 30% in the past couple of years already and there are plenty of signs of them beginning to get cold feet. China isn't a contender for the worlds biggest economy just yet though - not by a long long way. It's just that they're growing so fast that they are gobbling up commodities like there's no tomorrow - oil, copper etc - and much of that growth is dependant upon exporting their production to the US (and us!)

 

[roguetrader]

Key level for the SOX here imho

 

[justyn]

Tick trendline just broke so down we go IMO 780?

 

[tradesmart]

start of an ascending triangle forming..

I wouldn't give up on that just yet.........