Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

any views on volume and adv/dec. today? looked pretty good. could the bears be in with a chance here?

Adv/dec very negative on NYSE closed at -1995 and never got above -1100 all day, Naz was a bit more all over the place was positive early on but closed at the lows -1029
Volume breadth was negative all day on the NYSE but not real ugly, the Naz again was up and down, actually positive early in the day and again later, chopped about a lot.

 

[User]

My day was basically, Dow position got closed at the end of the day which was not good. One of my crude oil positions got stopped out when we broke out above 5520 and then the other three crude oil positions came back and are currently showing a good profit. If I closed them now I would end up with £29.24 which is extremely dissapointing but oh well its not a loss!

The Dow well should be testing 10750 next as this is trend line from the low of last year!

So 10750 could well be firm support. We'll see.

I think I might just hold onto my crude oil positions. We were finding resistance at $5520 for the last few sessions then we finally broke out today and went around 45cents higher. However we reversed away from the highs and ended near to the lows. Action of this nature is not really bullish so $54 at the very least should be taken out with $5387 acting as support. Also a possibilty of seeing $50 a barrel soon.

Was thinking of entering a long at 10800 but might put that on hold until we see a possible test of 10750.

Those of you who have not participated in the two polls (12,000 and 11,000) please do so....

Good Luck

 

[User]

volume did not confirm what should have been a very important breakout given the number of times we tried, my guess is that the majority of the volume we did see was short covering.

That coincides with my views 100%.

However I did think we would do better then this with a test of 11100. The fact that we have closed below the breakout level should really imply further weakness. The Dow should have held up a lot better and should have closed above 10850-70 region. Now that we haven't, we should test the trendline from 2004 lows, the area concerned is showing up as 10750. (support). We'll soon findout!

 

[FetteredChinos]

going up from here into friday , IMHO..

well i got the 100 pt move i was looking for. oddly it was in the wrong direction. bloody inverted patterns.

should see 10,900 before friday though, and then down into wednesday, probably 10,600 now.

currently long from 10860 (hmm) and 10,840 discretion/other method.

100/120 pt stops on the pair of them...

sorry to hear about your loss yesterday User, you've had a good run recently. last 2 weeks for me have been crud in comparison to the previous 3. ah well

i see this move as taking it down temporarily in order to resume some serious upwards movement. we have had a bonker run up since the election. a pause is only necessary..

long term FTSE shorts are looking healthy this morning though

 

[peterpr]

I had to miss the pm session - what a pain !

V jittery markets - Oil; deficits getting increased public attention; Asian dollar holdings news etc etc. All confirm (to me) that we are topping - but I think that the rising wedge on the day/week/month charts is the dominant pattern in play right now. I expect another visit to its top + a possible exuberant blow off spike before a vicious reversal that heralds a muti-month (at least) journey down.

Not so certain about FC's call for today though - more likely sideways I would have thought but agreed a reasonably low risk long at around 10800.

PS - Afterthought. - Of course you could interpret that spike on Monday as the blow off. Just looks tidier and more complete with another leg up. Don't get caught long though !

 

[roguetrader]

i see this move as taking it down temporarily in order to resume some serious upwards movement. we have had a bonker run up since the election. a pause is only necessary..

That's quite an interesting observation FC, while I was really suspicious of the break-out due to the lack of volume, this sell-off, whilst impressive to look at has not been on spectacular volume either. If the lowish volume break-out was as I suspect largely short covering, then not many bulls would have been trapped, which would explain why yesterdays dump was not more panicky. If you look at the TRIN yesterday it spent most of the day around 0.65 and closed at a high of 0.88. Thats bullish in anybodies language, and yet we had a 100 point sell-off. Any bulls caught should have exited as we fell through the break-out point, add that to some new shorts initiated and you have the slight increase in volume we saw yesterday. In the same way that I felt there was little commitment to the break-out, there has been little more commitment to this sell-off. Guess it will be all eyes on Intel after the bell. Of course this is all the mad ravings of someone who thinks longterm is tomorrow morning

 

[peterpr]

90 minute chart - more evidence of a likely bounce at between 10800 and 10780 ish. Main reg channel from 20th Jan - smaller/steeper one from 22nd Feb. RSI flattening onto the 30 line. (MACD looking like a bit more downside first though). Which to believe? And is that a possible H&S to watch for today/tomorrow ?

 

[peterpr]

Talking to myself here a bit but here's some more interesting info

The only major indices to show positive in the US yesterday were the 30 and 10 Year TN yields + the gold and silver index. The T note yields rose 2.8 and 3.2% respectively ! that's some spike.

The only major world market index to show positive in the last 24 hours was/is the Footsie Techmark.

http://money.cnn.com/markets/world_markets/

 

[tradesmart]

The only major world market index to show positive in the last 24 hours was/is the Footsie Techmark.

Interesting Peter - Intel is reporting after the bell today, and some seem to think that they may have some good news.....

But will any good news be bought or sold......?........this is the question........ :cheesy:

 

[RUDEBOY]

peterpr, i may be wrong, but i thought the big institutions sometimes put thier interests into yields and bonds when stocks looked less preferable. Any thoughts?

 

[User]

Normally yes but we've got all sorts going on! I got a feeling oil may provide an incentive for the Dow to rise today. Seems as if it may break $54. Now that I've said it probably won't happen

Long at 10801 as 10750 area hopefully will provide support should we come to see it!

peterpr some interesting info.

 

[FetteredChinos]

User, old chap, do you have any historical Oil data handy? Daily OHLC would be sufficient.

cheers.

FC

 

[Preacher-Man]

Wow... even on a pull-back to within 1 point of the week's low (March futures - 10784) we have not seen enough Bulls grabbing the opportunity to cause more than a 12 point rally in half an hour. I for one am very cautious.

This is my last day here for a couple of weeks: going down-under for a church conference. Hopefully the market will have settled down by the time I return, because I really can't call it right now...!

Best wishes to the Bulls, the Bears and the in-betweens! :cheesy:

TaTa.

 

[User]

Sorry FC haven't got anything at the moment. Just using some frebbie charts My Omnitrader needs to be sorted out.

Why do you need it? You going to pull out with a system thats going to make us both rich!?

 

[RUDEBOY]

i think today, dow's going to move sideways, if not, i reakon it'll lose some more. It may move up a little, but i think it will be short lived. There doesn't seem much interest in moving it higher at the moment, not compared to around the 20/02/05. There you go, iv'e used every direction, gotta get it right somewhere along the line?

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup User been tinkering with a ludicrously simple idea.

requires slightly deep pockets, but so far works on pretty much every market i have tested it on. futures, US stocks,UK stocks, gold, etc.

FX is a bit wonky, but then again, i am yet to find a simple daily strat that doesnt have stupid drawdowns in it.

currently trying to locate some Bonds/STIR data to test on there as well..

individually, the equity curves arent wonderfully great, but, like the Turtles, if you trade it on multiple markets you could be in business.

does anyone have any Orange juice data?



fc

 

[peterpr]

peterpr, i may be wrong, but i thought the big institutions sometimes put thier interests into yields and bonds when stocks looked less preferable. Any thoughts?

Strange times. What could spook the market is worries about the continuing willingness of Asian countries to channel nearly $2 billion per day ! into US treasuries. Rising LT yields are a warning that deficit financing won't get any easier with all implications that has for rising rates bursting the us consumer credit and housing bubbles. Some see it as a house of cards just waiting for a strong gust of something to collapse the lot.

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup User been tinkering with a ludicrously simple idea.

requires slightly deep pockets, but so far works on pretty much every market i have tested it on. futures, US stocks,UK stocks, gold, etc.

FX is a bit wonky, but then again, i am yet to find a simple daily strat that doesnt have stupid drawdowns in it.

currently trying to locate some Bonds/STIR data to test on there as well..

individually, the equity curves arent wonderfully great, but, like the Turtles, if you trade it on multiple markets you could be in business.

does anyone have any Orange juice data?



fc

just had a re-look at the gold strat.


trading EOD only, it has yielded approx $1560 since 1998.

or 156,000 cents, which is the unit we trade in, isnt it?

 

[User]

Long at 10801

 

[FetteredChinos]

im with you on this one User..

target #1 sighted is 10,900.


line her up in the crosshairs, baby..

fire at will.

FC