Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[dc2000]

What do you call a big win?

 

[mark twain uk]

one big win was £50 a point for 120 points win

 

[dc2000]

Bish Bash Bosh job done

Elvis has left the building

and how long did you hold for that win?

 

[mark twain uk]

I was showing him the way, I left five minutes earlier

 

[dc2000]

Ah my friend you must always trust in the ways of the force

 

[al76]

Hi everyone, could someone tell me why despite an all time high US trade deficit the DJ 30 is going up?
Many thank

 

[mark twain uk]

the said win was over a period of six days, but the longest I held was long on a share that I kept for over a year and which yielded a four figure profit

 

[dc2000]

Just getting a better price al

Ask again at the end of the day

 

[mark twain uk]

al76,

because you are witnessing another bubble. You are probably too young to remember the South Sea bubble, but old enough to remember the dot.com one. It is just a matter of time before this bubble will burst, it may take weeks, months or years, but when it does it will be on a scale not witnessed since 1929.

 

[Gap Man]

al76,

because you are witnessing another bubble. You are probably too young to remember the South Sea bubble, but old enough to remember the dot.com one. It is just a matter of time before this bubble will burst, it may take weeks, months or years, but when it does it will be on a scale not witnessed since 1929.

Crikey

 

[dc2000]

because you are witnessing another bubble. You are probably too young to remember the South Sea bubble, but old enough to remember the dot.com one. It is just a matter of time before this bubble will burst, it may take weeks, months or years, but when it does it will be on a scale not witnessed since 1929

You put it so much better than my 1000 points in 2 days but the result is the same

 

[Racer]

al76,

because you are witnessing another bubble. You are probably too young to remember the South Sea bubble, but old enough to remember the dot.com one. It is just a matter of time before this bubble will burst, it may take weeks, months or years, but when it does it will be on a scale not witnessed since 1929.

Oh goody :cheesy:

 

[User]

Quickly..................SELL SELL and SELL a little more

Thats my take anyway.

According to the four hour chart and I must highlight that this includes out of hours activity as well, we do have some problems......

We are sitting at crossroads if you like......

NASDAQ100

A close below 1694 at 20:00 will lead us towards 1673. Snap that area and we will for sure see an easy correction of another 40 points which will take us towards 1630. The Nasdaq has also been a little weak for the last few session and this should always be taken as the leader in future direction

S&P500

Major problems with 1271-72

Once again we went up to it today and failed.........Yes clearly the trend is up and we have been in sideways movement for the 3 weeks......so upside could still occur. But it is likely that we'll fail here and head south......

Dow Jones

This has been lagging for a while and it has managed to shape a downward sloping trendline which at 20:00 today I would like to see us under......10860

Charts attached........

Went higher once again

 

[kriesau]

al76,

because you are witnessing another bubble. You are probably too young to remember the South Sea bubble, but old enough to remember the dot.com one. It is just a matter of time before this bubble will burst, it may take weeks, months or years, but when it does it will be on a scale not witnessed since 1929.

Remember, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent !"

Seriously though I think that comparisons with 1929 might be a little exaggerated. There is an asset bubble in the US, coupled with some rather terrifying trade and budget deficits, but don't underestimate the markets ability to muddle through for quite a long period of time. I agree that we are overdue a correction, which will probably occur in the 2006, but I can't really see the Dow falling 63% to 4000 can you !

 

[Racer]

US deficit widens to record

 

[mark twain uk]

My posting has generated quite a stir, I will try to explain the reasons behind my statement.

There are several matters that are badly out of kilt in the US, I will list them in no particular order: huge and increasing federal trade deficit; huge federal borrowing; huge personal borrowing; real estate bubble; hedge fund speculation on such a scale that it has a larger influence on the stock market that the actual state of the economy.

Add to this the external factors: the two largest oil producers in the world are Saudi Arabia and Iran; China's economic power is transformed into political power, but they are still a communist dictatorship; China, India, Latin America and Eastern Europe are taking away all manufacturing jobs in the western world.

The destabilisation of some of the above countries or US internal factors could trigger a chain reaction that would bring the whole world into recession. Some of the possible scenarious: Nuclear attack by Iran. Collapse of the communist regime in China or War between China and USA; Islamic revolution in Saudi Arabia; Massive and multiple attacks against the western countries by islamic fundamentalists, etc.

Most of the above is the stuff of fiction, they are more an intellectual excercise than reasonable scenarious, but if any of them were to happen, the consequences would be hard to anticipate. Honestly, before 9/11, who would have believed that islamic fundamentalists would attack the Pentagon from the air?

The above are just my musings and they portray a one sided view, the world is never so black and white, however, can you imagine what would have happened if the USSR would have launched nuclear missiles from Cuba at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis?

 

[mark twain uk]

Of all the above, my favourite is hedge fund speculation going badly out of hand.

 

[dc2000]

Bag o Cash - Market - Hit with

 

[User]

Maybe I should delete that post

Well no real harm to the trades except that the notion of declines in the short term is some what jaded for now.......Not 'long' to go though.......

 

[Racer]

Double bottom on the VIX?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VIX,uu[m,a]wacanyay[p][vc60]&pref=G

sorry for non clickable link, for some reason it won't work and goes to different chart if I use it as link.. something to do with several " ] " in the url?