Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[mark twain uk]

NOTE: For those newer to trading, please do not use any figures I, or anyone else for that matter, post here as a basis for your trades, this is a sure way to lose money. My trades could go horribly wrong but it is my money that is at risk.

You need a reason, a target and a stop loss for placing any trade. Reasons, targets and stop losses vary wildly from person to person.

 

[twiggytwo]

spot on dow analysis

evening all, just as expected a very flat day up to now,market awaiting the fomc decision.anybody care to make an educated guess as to which way the market will go after the announcement which is around 19.15 ... im hoping to see 10850 this evening.

Hi Houdani, the time now is 19.56 and you are spot on the Dow is now @10850 bet you are smiling.
regards

 

[houdani]

Hi Houdani, the time now is 19.56 and you are spot on the Dow is now @10850 bet you are smiling.
regards

yep good day all in all twiggy, closed out now, maybe a bit prematurely but no sense getting greedy.all the best.

 

[mark twain uk]

wouldn't be lovely to have a massive sell-off into the close

 

[Racer]

Racer, shouldn't that be something along the lines of - judging from previous statistics and taking the balance of probabilities into account, it would not be unsurprising to see a move in the opposite direction from the one that occured on the day of the announcement!
Of course we should also remember that past performance should never be used as an indication of future returns!
Q

LOL

and that too.....

Well we shall see tomorrow if it goes down after this rise on the announcement

 

[mark twain uk]

I actually looked at the figures of that stat and I can't remember what the figure actually was but I do remember that the chances for reversal the day after the announcement are extremely high......I normally trade the opposite direction for the next day.....so if todays up then I have no problems with shorting for tomorrow......

Where did you look for these figures? I wouldn't mind getting my mittens on them

 

[dc2000]

dont know about massive but 811 will do me

 

[User]

Where did you look for these figures? I wouldn't mind getting my mittens on them

I found it months ago but can't remember where. If I come accross it I'll let you know.

The four hour chart for the Dow and S&P is looking fantastic at the moment and believe or not thats for the case of downside.......

S&P hit highs again and found resistance for the 4th time. The Dow is sloping downwards since hiting highs and managed to hit the downward sloping trendline at the highs of the session and now you can see what is happening.......

I still would like the two to end up slightly on the day so that they crash extensively tomorrow.......

Same old stuff over and over again......But when emotion kicks into it.......oh well.

Just a quick question? Honest answers please.....When the Dow hit 10870....How many were thinking long for 11,000 and how many were thinking short?

I simply ask as not alot of people would have been looking at the four hour chart to admire the resistance we had......textbook but horrible stuff......

 

[mark twain uk]

dc,

shall we close our trades overnight?

edited: I closed mine for a tidy profit, nothing too exciting, but a profit nevertheless (39 points on SP and 37 on dow)

 

[mark twain uk]

.When the Dow hit 10870....How many were thinking long for 11,000 and how many were thinking short? ...

I did both, I went short and thought, how about a nice round 11,000 to be reached from here without any pull back

 

[dc2000]

I cant answer that one for you Mark

 

[kriesau]

I found it months ago but can't remember where. If I come accross it I'll let you know.

The four hour chart for the Dow and S&P is looking fantastic at the moment and believe or not thats for the case of downside.......

S&P hit highs again and found resistance for the 4th time. The Dow is sloping downwards since hiting highs and managed to hit the downward sloping trendline at the highs of the session and now you can see what is happening.......

I still would like the two to end up slightly on the day so that they crash extensively tomorrow.......

Same old stuff over and over again......But when emotion kicks into it.......oh well.

Just a quick question? Honest answers please.....When the Dow hit 10870....How many were thinking long for 11,000 and how many were thinking short?

I simply ask as not alot of people would have been looking at the four hour chart to admire the resistance we had......textbook but horrible stuff......

Closed my long at 10850.

 

[User]

Closed my long at 10850.

Nice one......

This is week is surely make or break time.......

 

[dc2000]

Just a quick question? Honest answers please.....When the Dow hit 10870....How many were thinking long for 11,000 and how many were thinking short?

was short in the 60s the trip to the 70s and the close altered my thinking on tomorrow 11k never came into it today

 

[User]

was short in the 60s the trip to the 70s and the close altered my thinking on tomorrow 11k never came into it today

Smashing stuff......

It seems like we'll see fluctuations to keep the belief in the upside for a while before poping significantly......I'm not sure if that'l be this month or the next, its hard to say........One things for sure they won't remember the 800 point rise when they get the 1000 point decline.......its always the same.......

 

[leovirgo]

Just a quick question? Honest answers please.....When the Dow hit 10870....How many were thinking long for 11,000 and how many were thinking short?
......

Went long at 765, closed at 850+ . Called it a day and had a spicy meal. :cheesy:

Great discussions here. Nice to see great contributions. Funny ones are also welcome.

Now I wonder who'll start a thread for 2006 Dow direction??.

 

[al76]

Hi, can someone tell me why the interest rate rise sent the US indices up, I would have thought that the fact of making borrowing for businesses more expensive and trying to retain public expenditures would have a negative effect on the US Economie, therefore send the indices down...
Many thanks.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Hi, can someone tell me why the interest rate rise sent the US indices up, I would have thought that the fact of making borrowing for businesses more expensive and trying to retain public expenditures would have a negative effect on the US Economie, therefore send the indices down...
Many thanks.

Most people expected a rate rise but the statement released at the same time has been interpreted as indicating that the rate rises might not continue for much longer. Either that or they were just trying to hit a few stops

 

[al76]

Do you mean that whatever the interest rise (that may be negative) would be, the good news was the Feds are in the end of rising the interest rate, and just for that the indices went up.
What do mean by "trying to hit a few stops"?
Many thanks.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Do you mean that whatever the interest rise (that may be negative) would be, the good news was the Feds are in the end of rising the interest rate, and just for that the indices went up.
What do mean by "trying to hit a few stops"?
Many thanks.

The interest rate rise was expected. The change in the wording of the statement has been seen as positive for the markets. That was the excuse for the up move but we will see if they still think the same tomorrow. Sometimes I think a move like today is just to take out those that were short and had a stop around 10,850 before moving back down again. Probably just me being paranoid