will it? wont it?
1min chart strenghening again... :cheesy:FetteredChinos said:100EMA rejected from below..
bearish, and thats not just wishful thinking
kriesau said:This current rally seems to defy all logic and economic facts apart from the seasonal tradition of Christmas rallies.
The September trade deficit hit a new record of $66bn and it will continue to increase due to oil prices even if they remain in the $55 - $60 range (which they won't) since they have moved up from $40 at the begining of the year. The US needs to maintain bond sales to finance this deficit and they succeeded in getting $100bn in September which comfortably covers this requirement. HOWEVER little of this came from banks - most of it came from PI's and other institutions attracted by rising US interest rates. These sources of funds are volatile and they can reverse as fast as they came. Overseas bank share of these funds has declined from 30% to 5% over the past 12 months. This deficit is unsustainable and it will be further enhanced by the rsing domestic budget deficit too.
The housing bubble is ready to burst with sustained interest rate rises. Consumer spending is about to falter for the same reason (remember this is 72% of GDP) and GM is about to go into Chapter 11 with a debt mountain in excess of $400bn and this will create a major banking crisis.
Rome (Washington) is burning and Nero (Dubya) is playing his flute and swanning around Asia while the crisis deepens like a rising Tsunami. When this wave breaks, better watch out below !
"it is different this time"
Yeah right - silly meRacer said:But you are forgetting... "it is different this time"