Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Not so sure about using RSI at the moment - i've looked at charts over several timeframes with RSI suggesting oversold only for the Dow (and FTSE, Nasdaq too) to keep pushing on.

Having said that i am thinking short soon pre thanks giving - any economic news out tomorrow?
 
One member said the DOW would reach 10850 when it was 10680 (a rise of 170 points) a couple of weeks ago but did not feel it prudent to post his prediction on this thread. It is sad that ridicule prevents people from sharing their thoughts, views, insights and commentary with others, especially as the majority that carry out this pastime offer little or nothing in its place.

Subsequently, this thread has lost most if not all of its star rating (not as defined by those yellow things under members names).
 
Mark twain uk,

Certainly not, I had a small long position that I closed for a small profit of 126 points.

Unfortunately, the realities of life are normally harsh and this is one of those instances where it is better to spell it out.
 
LION63 said:
Mark twain uk,

Certainly not, I had a small long position that I closed for a small profit of 126 points.

Unfortunately, the realities of life are normally harsh and this is one of those instances where it is better to spell it out.
Click to expand...


sorry?! - "small" profit of 126 points? wow!! I don't mind that.. no sir... not at all!

well.. don't know how many £/pip you trade.. but anything >=5 sure made that
profit a good one in my books.
 
LION63 said:
One member said the DOW would reach 10850 when it was 10680 (a rise of 170 points) a couple of weeks ago but did not feel it prudent to post his prediction on this thread. It is sad that ridicule prevents people from sharing their thoughts, views, insights and commentary with others, especially as the majority that carry out this pastime offer little or nothing in its place.

Subsequently, this thread has lost most if not all of its star rating (not as defined by those yellow things under members names).
Click to expand...


I have to say, that, although I have not frequented this BB for any great length of time, the extent of ridicule does not seem particularly great. Clearly people are looking at different timeframes and have many different types of methodologies, so differences in opinion are natural. Are you suggesting that there are members who intimidate other members?

Many years, when I traded FTSE, I used to post on the Hemscott BB. It became apparent to me that there were three posters who were getting price sensitive info on an Israeli tech company (Geo Interactive media now Emblaze Systems). Not only were they in receipt of such info, they were posting it up on the BB. I remember posting a message to the effect that this was utterly wrong and there could be an FSA investigation. As a result of that post I had 92 vitriolic posts threatening me and calling me just about ever name under the sun. Now that is unpleasant.

PS The CEO was called up by FSA and I think the LSE too to explain what was going on.
 
macbonzo said:
I have to say, that, although I have not frequented this BB for any great length of time, the extent of ridicule does not seem particularly great. Clearly people are looking at different timeframes and have many different types of methodologies, so differences in opinion are natural. Are you suggesting that there are members who intimidate other members?

Many years, when I traded FTSE, I used to post on the Hemscott BB. It became apparent to me that there were three posters who were getting price sensitive info on an Israeli tech company (Geo Interactive media now Emblaze Systems). Not only were they in receipt of such info, they were posting it up on the BB. I remember posting a message to the effect that this was utterly wrong and there could be an FSA investigation. As a result of that post I had 92 vitriolic posts threatening me and calling me just about ever name under the sun. Now that is unpleasant.

PS The CEO was called up by FSA and I think the LSE too to explain what was going on.
Click to expand...

Macbonzo,

I have not come across anything remotely as nasty as what you have described in your post and hope that noone ever has to go through such an experience. Nevertheless, there are instances of members being ove jealous in their disagreements with other members' posts. This is unfortunate as we fail to accept that people use different types of analyses and different time frames (as you have said) which will thus lead to different conclusions being reached. Subsequently, it is very unreasonable to cast dispersions on the character of the individual who posts said conclusions, right or wrong.
 
The Dow

Well it seems like the expected may result in the unexpected. Similar to when in March the expectation of a close above 11,000 was everybody’s answer (except , mine of course). Seems like 10900 should provide resistance and reversal could be prompted from here. A similar with the Nasdaq100, which could face problems at 1700, and S&P at 1265.

The Pound

I stated yesterday again that the pound is a Buy and it seems highly likely from a chart perspective that the low of 17065 should be here to stay. The current value of 172 needs to issue a close above 174 in order for a quick run towards 177-178 region. It should be quick as it will of course, be a result of short covering. Euro also has bottomed out in my opinion.

Oil

$60 and then back down again most probably. It seems like we'll be range trading for a while.

Gold

After a run towards 495 gold seems a little lethargic at the moment. However its probably waiting for its next run up. The question is how will it react to $500? The last time it was at this level was some 20 odd years ago....I don't even think I was born.....

T-notes

I stated they are a mega Buy. Well yesterday they rallied and more to come by the looks of it.

Well that’s the recap and good luck with whatever your trading......
 
individual who posts said conclusions, right or wrong
Click to expand...

Hope my conclusions above turn out ok as it equates to right or wrong for my portfolio. :devilish:

Hows that fundemental aspects going? Haven't heard your interesting market 'food for thought' lately..... :devilish:
 
User,

I also hope that your conclusions turn out to be right on the basis that labour deserves/justifies payment. Your posts on this thread have always been constructive and I speak for most when I say that you should keep them coming.

I will probably post over the weekend especially as it seems that the markets are reaching a crossroad and the inertia should come to an end one way or another.
 
Lion63, much appreciated.

Early signs of resistance at 10900 showing with a intraday high of 10897 made.

Now what do we need?

Do we need the traders to pile the shorts in? Not really, profit taking would be enough to start something. So take it away guys.....take your money of the table or you could wait until the table takes it of ffor you.........:devilish:
 
Dow has been on the run without any significant consolidation (-50pts) since Friday 10700. That means a continuous gain of more than 200pts.

DOW rose +250pts from 10230 to 10480 in just two trading sessions ( Oct 28 and 31). My indicators are still bullish.. [though I am out the market at present] I wouldn't short just yet...I want to see at least 50pts retracement and a re-test of another lower high before jumping down.
 
after 10877 the next resistance will be in 10950 --11020 .
was looking for pull back from yesterday's high to around 10650-10700 to get on boat for 11200 by end of dec/early jan.
will not short this market untill 11200 or jan 2006 what ever comes first.
 
You may be right but the way I see it is that the "January effect" gets earlier each year. We have just had a run up of 700 points on the Dow and many of the people who are buying at this stage are either the last short coverers or inexperienced investors/ traders who are scared that they will miss the boat. I know I have said this before, but nearly all the hedge funds had a really awful October and if you were running one of this funds would you not be itching to lock in some of these gains for the year end? Playing Icarus on the long side after 700 points can get very dangerous.
 
AXP up today.. not long ago they said that the estimates for earnings were too high.. and GM up as well...
that says it all!!!
 
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