Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Racer]

Before a tax charge and the hurricane impact, the company posted a third-quarter profit of 33 cents a share, beating analysts' average forecast of 29 cents.

Including items, the company posted a net loss of $82 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with a profit of $331 million, or 33 cents a share, a year earlier.

DuPont also warned the hurricanes' impact will continue to squeeze profits in the fourth quarter, forecasting earnings of 20 cents a share to 25 cents a share, below the average analysts' forecast of 36 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

DuPont results beat forecasts

 

[Racer]

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Stocks continue to head towards a lower start. Although about 70% of the morning's earnings reports have thus far checked in higher than analysts' estimates, traders remain focused on disappointing Q4 guidance. Aside from Texas Instruments (TXN), DuPont (DD) and Lexmark (LXK), which beat consensus estimates by $0.04 and $0.12, respectively, have dropped in early trading. While its EPS estimate includes several one-time items and may not be comparable to the Reuters Estimates consensus, DuPont forecasted Q4 EPS of $0.20-0.25 versus the $0.36 consensus. Lexmark, meanwhile, expects EPS of $0.40-0.50 versus the $0.65 consensus next quarter.

Next quarter, Texas Instruments foresees sales of $3.43 to $3.72 bln, versus the $3.63 bln consensus estimate.

 

[Racer]

Fitch Ratings-Chicago-October 25, 2005: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the ratings of E.I. Dupont de Nemours and Company's (DuPont) senior unsecured debt to 'A' from 'AA-' and has lowered the company's short-term debt rating to 'F1' from 'F1+'. The issuer default rating was also downgraded to 'A' from 'AA-'. At the same time, Fitch assigns an 'A' rating to the bank credit facility. The ratings apply to approximately $9.5 billion of debt. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

 

[Racer]

DD now up over 2%, hmm looks like they are looking at it from a bull point of view

 

[dc2000]

PAT 494

Thursday mid session should be of interest for those targets I mentioned

 

[kriesau]

PAT 494

Thursday mid session should be of interest for those targets I mentioned

What targets were they ?

 

[rav700]

Does any one here believe that the dow will touch 10,000 in the next week or so????

 

[counter_violent]

Does any one here believe that the dow will touch 10,000 in the next week or so????

The Tin God of T 2 W says up, so I figure, short the hell out of it !

Actually, from a technical point of view, it is still bearish.

 

[rav700]

The Tin God of T 2 W says up, so I figure, short the hell out of it !

Actually, from a technical point of view, it is still bearish.

I do generally have big stops on the dow when the market reaches a high volatility rate....
I do want to go short today but have my jitters......
I still think that the dow has to test the 10,000 one more time before coming up again....this is as per my technical analysis....
Good luck will try and short the market at 414 if I can today ...
Happy trading guys...

 

[Bigbusiness]

Looking at the one year chart, this looks a bit like it did in April. Might be worth waiting for the Tin God rally before going for the big short. There do seem to be too many bears around for the big crash to happen now. I still remember Tom Hougaard mentioning that every year in the past that ends in 05 has been positive. Don't know why but I have a feeling it might happen again.

 

[rav700]

Looking at the one year chart, this looks a bit like it did in April. Might be worth waiting for the Tin God rally before going for the big short. There do seem to be too many bears around for the big crash to happen now. I still remember Tom Hougaard mentioning that every year in the past that ends in 05 has been positive. Don't know why but I have a feeling it might happen again.

These last couple of days have left me lost to be honest...am afraid that I a really loosing grip on predicting the market. I have not done too bad in the last 7 months but last 2 weeks...may be I need to go on holiday haha....
I too agree the future of dow seems weak and that it will soon be going down vigorously the big question is when

 

[Bigbusiness]

These last couple of days have left me lost to be honest...am afraid that I a really loosing grip on predicting the market. I have not done too bad in the last 7 months but last 2 weeks...may be I need to go on holiday haha....
I too agree the future of dow seems weak and that it will soon be going down vigorously the big question is when

Going by past experience, when most people have given up shorting and have joined the bulls. When it feels like exactly the wrong time to be short, the markets find a top. Hopefully, I wont have joined the bulls at that time

 

[gmca686]

Being a cynic, I find the best way of viewing the US markets is to remember that it is, in my belief, heavily manipulated.
For example on the new Fed appointment, Bernanke stated that he would carry on the policy of Greenspan, ie no change in the interest rate hiking policy. But the market had a huge up day. Why? because the PPT were determined to ensure that the new boss was well received by the markets, so did their behind the scenes business.
The next jolt to the markets is coming any day now. Maybe later today, but more likely Thurs/Fri. That will be the indictments to staff from Dick Cheney's office, Rove and Libby for starters. Maybe Cheney will be implicated. If you don't know what I am referring to, you should not be trading US markets!
The big question is what behind the scenes planning is going on now with the PPT? Will they let the market spike down on the indictment news, and then come in with heavy buying to drive it up again, or wil they buy early to stop the plunge. Should be interesting either way!
Or am I too paranoid?
regards, G McA

 

[Pat494]

Time to be looking at shorts imho

 

[houdani]

Being a cynic, I find the best way of viewing the US markets is to remember that it is, in my belief, heavily manipulated.
For example on the new Fed appointment, Bernanke stated that he would carry on the policy of Greenspan, ie no change in the interest rate hiking policy. But the market had a huge up day. Why? because the PPT were determined to ensure that the new boss was well received by the markets, so did their behind the scenes business.
The next jolt to the markets is coming any day now. Maybe later today, but more likely Thurs/Fri. That will be the indictments to staff from Dick Cheney's office, Rove and Libby for starters. Maybe Cheney will be implicated. If you don't know what I am referring to, you should not be trading US markets!
The big question is what behind the scenes planning is going on now with the PPT? Will they let the market spike down on the indictment news, and then come in with heavy buying to drive it up again, or wil they buy early to stop the plunge. Should be interesting either way!
Or am I too paranoid?
regards, G McA

the markets have swatted aside everything up to now, the searing rise in crude, the spectre of inflation, the impending retirement of mr greenspan, all worries of terrorism and an almost weekly barrage of hurricanes with an almost incalculable cost.just to name a few, what makes you think its going to plunge now because of a few indictments in cheneys office?

 

[Pat494]

And out again for a small profit

 

[twiggytwo]

Hi all , this is just my view but I see a ranging Dow and I have been trading it for some time now
I closed a position today with a nice swing trade profit
A buy Dec Dow at 10,244 on 21/10/2005 and a sell close today at 10,435
I only trade the range moves
I see the range as 10,453 top / resistance and 10,216 bottom / support
this is the Futures chart not the Cash when the cash closed at 10,215 the Futures showed me 10,244
hope this is of some help to you all
take care

 

[twiggytwo]

dow analysis?

the markets have swatted aside everything up to now, the searing rise in crude, the spectre of inflation, the impending retirement of mr greenspan, all worries of terrorism and an almost weekly barrage of hurricanes with an almost incalculable cost.just to name a few, what makes you think its going to plunge now because of a few indictments in cheneys office?

Hi Houdani, I think you have made a very valid point about the Dow, I think you are on the ball
regards

 

[Racer]

These last couple of days have left me lost to be honest...am afraid that I a really loosing grip on predicting the market. I have not done too bad in the last 7 months but last 2 weeks...may be I need to go on holiday haha....
I too agree the future of dow seems weak and that it will soon be going down vigorously the big question is when

Earnings seasons are notoriously volatile and act in a schizophrenic manner depending on how the particular companies earnings on the day appear. The market memory is extremely short term .

 

[rav700]

Rav. Sell it tomorrow on a split. Half at the open and half if moves toward 400. You seem frustrated, we all get frustrated. You seem to have more positive than negative to ponder though. Although if i was to be honest i would not trade until things become a little clearer for yourself. You are starting to fear your own judgement, but, something is telling you to prove yourself right. Your mind is awash with all the little statements that you read on T2W and you are trying too hard at the moment. Can you walk away? It makes more sense than anything to do this at times, but, is one of the hardest parts of trading dicipline that you will ever have to endeavour. Chill out.

Thanks a lot for your advice mate.
I am definately planning to short today but am considering in the 10375 region and as per my analysis I think we are not far from the 10250 in the next day or so......
Any thought won exxon do you think it will bring the bulls in for a bit........

Happy trading
Rav