Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[karmit]

Are you trading the reality of the market or your 'hope' of it? Be careful of shorting too early. Why not let the market signal a downmove first? By most consensus, oil will continue to rise and take the oil majors with it. These boys are so big they weigh heavily on the rest of the market - both in terms of weighting and ultimately sentimentally.

When folks ask why the DOW is not below 10,000 - think two things: oil majors and a strengthening dollar (rising interest rates).

By the way, at what point will you know if your short is definitely 'wrong' ?

Peace
:-0

well... I'm glad to say my short(s) were definitely right

and no! that big move up late today was definitely not my trade!!

 

[macbonzo]

well... I'm glad to say my short(s) were definitely right

and no! that big move up late today was definitely not my trade!!

It is also worth pointing out that Seguna's original post was nonsense. As the Dow is a price weighted average (and not a market cap weighted average like the FTSE), the only oil company, XOM is not even a top 4 weighted stock, so it's influence on the index cannot be compared to BP and SHELL which account for 25% of the FTSE.

In addition he is ignoring the fact that the extraction costs are rising rapidly and last week alone S&P insiders sold in excess of $55,600,000 of stock in the Energy sector.

 

[kriesau]

Looking for some upside tomorrow. Support at 10600 held again this evening and we could see the market move back up to the 10650 - 670 level tomorrow.

Resistance at 10700 still looks like a bridge to far for a really bullish breakthrough to occur at the moment.

 

[kriesau]

Data due out today
Retail Sales: LM +1.8% Expected (1.2%)
Retail ex auto: LM +0.3% Expected +0.5%
In Prod: LM +0.1% Expected +0.3%


Oil up slightly at $63.55
Cash Futures up 28pts at 11.00

 

[macbonzo]

Futures now negative. Awaiting Lehmans results.

 

[kriesau]

Lehman beat the projected eps of $2.73 comfortably with $2.94.
Futures just marginally above last nights close, just above the support line of 10600.

 

[kriesau]

Very little indication of direction for the open with cash futures virtually flat.
Might still see some upside towards 10650 - 670 today/tomorrow but this could be a swansong before a potential market turn down into next week, after the consistent failure to breach 10700.

Currently looking to go long above 10625 or short below 10580.

 

[Matt321]

Option expiration coming up Friday

 

[macbonzo]

Lehman beat the projected eps of $2.73 comfortably with $2.94.
Futures just marginally above last nights close, just above the support line of 10600.

Aug Retail sales come in well below expectations at -2.1%

Sales of autos down 12%, but otherwise figures look quite stable.

One wonders what these figures are going to be like post Katrina. It looks to me as if the US consumer is going to be drawing in its horns on big item purchases (hence BBY's profit warning).

NYMEX also creeping up a bit. I really feel that EIA/API figures could surprise. I think there could be a big draw on Crude given last week's figures were incomplete.

 

[kriesau]

Option expiration coming up Friday

Yep - in fact it's triple witching :cheesy:

 

[frugi]

Scary scary quite contrary

Bought a litter of Jan 2006 CAT 60 puts at the open @ 3.60.
Initial scale out target: bottom of weekly wedge.
Either that or it carelessly runs me over on its way to $80, but I suspect kittens will start to weigh it down before long.

 

[macbonzo]

Bought a litter of Jan 2006 CAT 60 puts at the open @ 3.60.
Initial scale out target: bottom of weekly wedge.
Either that or it carelessly runs me over on its way to $80, but I suspect kittens will start to weigh it down before long.

Pretty shrewd move to me. CAT has been pushed up a great deal on the post Katrina, rebuilding story. Almost certainly due for some profit taking. I seem to recall their Q2 results were massive though - they beat the Street by miles.

 

[roguetrader]

Bought a litter of Jan 2006 CAT 60 puts at the open @ 3.60.
Initial scale out target: bottom of weekly wedge.
Either that or it carelessly runs me over on its way to $80, but I suspect kittens will start to weigh it down before long.

Hehe Frugi, you getting a taste for those options trades, best of luck with the trade matey.up over 14% since yesterday, quite interesting that they have a fairly tight spread even though trading volume on the daay is very light.

 

[kriesau]

Indecisive so far today.
Went down after the opening surge and bounced off 10590 at 10.30
Two more unsuccessful tests at 10600 over the next hour
Tried an upside break at 11.30 but faltered at 10620.

Exxon, Altria and Dupont the main risers and Boeing and Caterpillar the main fallers.

Guess we'll have to wait until after 14.00 to see whether any firm directional move can be sustained or if its just another narrow consolidation day.

TW expiry on Friday could be a catalyst for a move down into next week.

 

[karmit]

Indecisive so far today.
Went down after the opening surge and bounced off 10590 at 10.30
Two more unsuccessful tests at 10600 over the next hour
Tried an upside break at 11.30 but faltered at 10620.

Exxon, Altria and Dupont the main risers and Boeing and Caterpillar the main fallers.

Guess we'll have to wait until after 14.00 to see whether any firm directional move can be sustained or if its just another narrow consolidation day.

TW expiry on Friday could be a catalyst for a move down into next week.

"TW expiry on Friday could be a catalyst for a move down into next week"

why do you believe so?

cheers,
karmit

 

[kriesau]

"TW expiry on Friday could be a catalyst for a move down into next week"

why do you believe so?

cheers,
karmit

MA's declining, volumes are low, Katrina will start to impact economic data, Fed likely to raise rates again and oil/gasoline will probably move up again.

Many existing positions will be unwound at the TW expiry and it's then a new game.

 

[karmit]

MA's declining, volumes are low, Katrina will start to impact economic data, Fed likely to raise rates again and oil/gasoline will probably move up again.

Many existing positions will be unwound at the TW expiry and it's then a new game.

thanks! looks like its already started...

 

[frugi]

Cheers roguetrader, good to see you back. Yeah I blame ducati for my sudden interest in options.

Retest the neckline, then fill the "gap" / H&S target (which kinda depends on where one draws the neckline)?

 

[roguetrader]

INDU and COMPQ setting up to close below their 50 day sma"s. 200 sma also in play on INDU

 

[Racer]

Wots this, I go away from my screens for 24 hours and it goes all red without me looking

They finally seen sense at last?