Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

kriesau said:
More from Greenspan today

Fed paying closer attention to rising value of assets such as housing and stocks as low interest rates encourage greater risk taking.

Market participants should not become complacent over a sustained period of economic stability and take the continuation of this for granted. If investors should become more cautious in due course then interest rates could rise further and asset values could decline.

Full text of Greenspan's speech
 
Turns out so by accident, didn't believe my own PR though :) Didn't really break through 10430 with stregth as you had said would be a signal. Had a short order triggered at 10390 which is currently sitting near my stop loss at 10420. Is it just me or are there more than one significant resistence level here? Time to buy or build myself some intraday software me thinks. Looks like there's been quite a bit of volume momentum on the way down today and then bounces. Does this tell of short term overselling?
 
Interesting... now Greenspan sounds worried... just a few weeks ago the economy was doing great...

so.. keep adding to the shorts!
 
jonty69 said:
Had a short order triggered at 10390 which is currently sitting near my stop loss at 10420. Is it just me or are there more than one significant resistence level here? Looks like there's been quite a bit of volume momentum on the way down today and then bounces. Does this tell of short term overselling?
I also have a further short booked at 10390 and it is still a resting order. The low today, as at 16.10, was 10392 so how come your short got triggered at 10390 ?
 
kriesau said:
I also have a further short booked at 10390 and it is still a resting order. The low today, as at 16.10, was 10392 so how come your short got triggered at 10390 ?
Trading "Daily cash" spread bet on Finspreads on their quote. There's a 4 point spread, so that would mean a mid-point of 10392 would trigger a 10390 sell. Sometimes seems to me that Finspreads differ a little from the market value, but I'm not certain of this.
 
The gurus on Bloomberg reckon the hurricane and Greenspan's remarks have dropped the Dow !
Both should blow out fairly soon imho
 
jonty69 said:
Trading "Daily cash" spread bet on Finspreads on their quote. There's a 4 point spread, so that would mean a mid-point of 10392 would trigger a 10390 sell. Sometimes seems to me that Finspreads differ a little from the market value, but I'm not certain of this.
surely finspreads spread quote should have nothing to do with the actual market price?
 
jonty69 said:
Trading "Daily cash" spread bet on Finspreads on their quote. There's a 4 point spread, so that would mean a mid-point of 10392 would trigger a 10390 sell. Sometimes seems to me that Finspreads differ a little from the market value, but I'm not certain of this.
Well thats the drawback with 'midpoint pricing'. My main broker takes you in and out at the quoted Buy and Sell so you only get triggered against their actual quote. I also have an account with IG who use 'midpoint pricing' so consequently I tend to only use them for spreads on stocks where the volatility, compared to indicies, is relatively low.
 
Dow /Fins /price

houdani said:
surely finspreads spread quote should have nothing to do with the actual market price?


Hi Fins base the spread around the FUTURES price and you will find that if the market is moving fast they move the spread outside the Futures price in the direction the market is moving. You will find that all Spread Betting firms do this, so forget about the cash price, look at the FUTURES.
Hope this is of help to you, Regards Twiglet :rolleyes:
 
kriesau said:
Well thats the drawback with 'midpoint pricing'. My main broker takes you in and out at the quoted Buy and Sell so you only get triggered against their actual quote. I also have an account with IG who use 'midpoint pricing' so consequently I tend to only use them for spreads on stocks where the volatility, compared to indicies, is relatively low.
Still learning the ropes and pitfalls with spread betting as I only moved on to it from plain old share trading a couple of months ago. This is one point which has cost me quit a bit already so thanks for the advice. We looking at a close at around 10370 or lower or another bounce off about 10390?
 
jonty69 said:
Still learning the ropes and pitfalls with spread betting as I only moved on to it from plain old share trading a couple of months ago. This is one point which has cost me quit a bit already so thanks for the advice. We looking at a close at around 10370 or lower or another bounce off about 10390?
We would need to see a convincing breach of 10400 to see it break south out of the narrow 10390 - 10420 range that has prevailed over the last 3 hours. The Dow ranged narrowly too yesterday ultimately closing 16pts up but with much choppier price action than today.

The post 2.00pm price action will determine any real direction today. Oil is edging back up toward $68 this afternoon but whether that is enough to tip the balance of sentiment today remains to be seen.
 
Watching the Housing Bubble

From todays IHT - synopsis.

Over the past 12 months 6.1m existing houses were sold plus nearly 1.3m new homes (a record)......But if and when a fall comes watch the volume of home sales, particularly existing homes.

Back in 1978 there were 4 million existing home sales............By 1982 amid recession and and rising interest rates the figure was under 2 million..........People by and large had fixed rate 30 year mortgages and homeowners who lost their jobs might have had to sell but those in work could continue to afford the repayments (so they stayed put and consequently the volume of existing homes for sale just declined).

Today ARM mortgages increase in repayment cost over time and are subject to interest rate rises and therefore interest rate rises have a greater potential to cause repayment defaults. If housing prices start to fall watch the volume of existing home house sales. If they fall rapidly it will be an indication that nothing much has changed and the damage is likely to be limited.

However if the sales volume stays high that would indicate that the new flexible ARM mortgage options are hurting and then we could see rising numbers of foreclosures as homeowners discover they cannot sell their houses for what they owe and cannot pay their increasingly higher monthly mortgage repayments either.
 
sweet! another chance to short... crude oil boys take profit for the weekend and dow jumps :)
 
But probably a lot more hurricanes to come!


- OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Tumbles Under $66 In Light Volume

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil prices dropped nearly $1.50 Friday, sliding below $66 a barrel amid a last-minute wave of selling sparked by easing worries about Hurricane Katrina.
 
Racer said:
Where is the 30 point markup just out of hours?
PPT team in their cars and bars too soon - so no post market rise into the weekend.
Have a good one !
 
house price increase ?

kriesau said:
From todays IHT - synopsis.

Over the past 12 months 6.1m existing houses were sold plus nearly 1.3m new homes (a record)......But if and when a fall comes watch the volume of home sales, particularly existing homes.

Back in 1978 there were 4 million existing home sales............By 1982 amid recession and and rising interest rates the figure was under 2 million..........People by and large had fixed rate 30 year mortgages and homeowners who lost their jobs might have had to sell but those in work could continue to afford the repayments (so they stayed put and consequently the volume of existing homes for sale just declined).

Today ARM mortgages increase in repayment cost over time and are subject to interest rate rises and therefore interest rate rises have a greater potential to cause repayment defaults. If housing prices start to fall watch the volume of existing home house sales. If they fall rapidly it will be an indication that nothing much has changed and the damage is likely to be limited.

However if the sales volume stays high that would indicate that the new flexible ARM mortgage options are hurting and then we could see rising numbers of foreclosures as homeowners discover they cannot sell their houses for what they owe and cannot pay their increasingly higher monthly mortgage repayments either.


Hi, house price increase in the South East of UK over the last 25 years = 7.84 times the buying price in 1980
As you can see this is nothing to do with trading the USA index market ( DOW JONES ) or ( S&P 500 )
:LOL: :LOL: :LOL: Best Regards
 
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