From todays IHT - synopsis.
Over the past 12 months 6.1m existing houses were sold plus nearly 1.3m new homes (a record)......But if and when a fall comes watch the volume of home sales, particularly existing homes.
Back in 1978 there were 4 million existing home sales............By 1982 amid recession and and rising interest rates the figure was under 2 million..........People by and large had fixed rate 30 year mortgages and homeowners who lost their jobs might have had to sell but those in work could continue to afford the repayments (so they stayed put and consequently the volume of existing homes for sale just declined).
Today ARM mortgages increase in repayment cost over time and are subject to interest rate rises and therefore interest rate rises have a greater potential to cause repayment defaults. If housing prices start to fall watch the volume of existing home house sales. If they fall rapidly it will be an indication that nothing much has changed and the damage is likely to be limited.
However if the sales volume stays high that would indicate that the new flexible ARM mortgage options are hurting and then we could see rising numbers of foreclosures as homeowners discover they cannot sell their houses for what they owe and cannot pay their increasingly higher monthly mortgage repayments either.