It will not affect the Dow next week but here are afew reviews of:
Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East by Clyde Prestowitz
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/cu...58087-7588862?_encoding=UTF8&n=283155&s=books
August 2010: Dow up by 100%? US$ down by 70%?
Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East by Clyde Prestowitz
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/cu...58087-7588862?_encoding=UTF8&n=283155&s=books
August 2010: Dow up by 100%? US$ down by 70%?
Rudeboy,
As a Kiwi the chances are I can understand you far better than some of your fellow Poms.
Such is the english language that the NZ user is right in the middle of it all and if you look further you will find more than one New Zealander right at the core of it . One was editor of the OE dictionary for some time.
Admit it, you will find any NZer easy to understand if you talk to one of us.
I hope I come through as I have just had my Saturday night out at my local Turkish restuarant with three of my fellow NZers (all three originally incl. wife born in UK) Three bottles of good Kiwi wine(one each Lindauer Special Reserve, one good merlot and one chardonnay, three beers and four liqueurs later)
All for half the price or less of dining in the UK...I should know as I was with you in July, wasn't I Racer?
Life is wonderful!!!
As a Kiwi the chances are I can understand you far better than some of your fellow Poms.
Such is the english language that the NZ user is right in the middle of it all and if you look further you will find more than one New Zealander right at the core of it . One was editor of the OE dictionary for some time.
Admit it, you will find any NZer easy to understand if you talk to one of us.
I hope I come through as I have just had my Saturday night out at my local Turkish restuarant with three of my fellow NZers (all three originally incl. wife born in UK) Three bottles of good Kiwi wine(one each Lindauer Special Reserve, one good merlot and one chardonnay, three beers and four liqueurs later)
All for half the price or less of dining in the UK...I should know as I was with you in July, wasn't I Racer?
Life is wonderful!!!
I'm bearish about this bugger, if i had to day trade it, i would be selling the daily opportunities. Why? So it doesn't collapse on my position and hurtle through my stop. Then your'e really buggered, unless you have a guaranteed stop facillity, which means you're probably using spreads, which means your going to have a hard time day trading positions. Rude.
With inflated oil prices, an accelerating housing bubble and rising interest rates how long can the current mood of optimism be sustained on Wall St ?
The June trade deficit was nearly $59bn which equates to roughly 6% of US GDP. A third of that total deficit - approx $20bn - was oil but this was based upon an average price of circa $45 per barrel ! An average price of $60 will add circa an extra $10bn PER MONTH soon to the existing trade deficit. That is more than 1% of GDP. This will inevitably impact consumer spending as petrol prices and home heating costs increase and disposable income correspondingly decreases as we get into the autumn.
Although there are conflicting views regarding the future price of oil - Goldman predicts $70+ and Merrill says $50+ - the consensus is that it will remain above $50 as a worst case scenario. The reason is that we are caught in a classic 'supply cannot match rising demand' trap and that will ensure that oil prices remain high for the forseeable future unless demand falls due to a global recession. There will be a time lag before new reserves are tapped and extracted to be able to balance the current shortfall so oil is inevitably going to act as a brake on consumer spending.
Whilst oil prices will reduce consumer disposable income there is even a bigger factor looming in the background which could turn an oil inspired consumer slowdown into a real recession. That factor is the housing bubble. Property prices have virtually doubled over the past 5 years and mortgage debt has risen to $4 trillion. Think about it - $4 trillion - that is the equivalent to 35% of annual GDP !
There already is a housing bubble and that Fed knows it although they try to downplay this by referring to it as "froth". Greenspan has caused this as a result of lowering interest rates to 1% to stave off recession after the dotcom crash and succeeded in averting it then by creating an alternative housing bubble. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. The Fed has no choice but to carry on raising rates going forward since they need to put the breaks on house prices before this bubble bursts in a more spectacular fashion causing a full blown recession. Consequently the combination of rising interest rates on high personal debt levels coupled with the impact of high oil prices will inevitably hit consumer spending elsewhere and this will negatively impact the markets.
The catalyst for these converging problems will almost certainly be delayed until Greenspan leaves office in January. However the issue that interests us here is when will this looming problem be factored into the stock markets which anticipate what is likely to happen next rather than reflect what is going on today.
Will we see a real downturn this autumn or will the current Goldilocks story survive until the new year ?
One thing is for sure - it will happen and when it does it will be bloody !
Dow at 9000 and SPX at 1100 anybody ?
The June trade deficit was nearly $59bn which equates to roughly 6% of US GDP. A third of that total deficit - approx $20bn - was oil but this was based upon an average price of circa $45 per barrel ! An average price of $60 will add circa an extra $10bn PER MONTH soon to the existing trade deficit. That is more than 1% of GDP. This will inevitably impact consumer spending as petrol prices and home heating costs increase and disposable income correspondingly decreases as we get into the autumn.
Although there are conflicting views regarding the future price of oil - Goldman predicts $70+ and Merrill says $50+ - the consensus is that it will remain above $50 as a worst case scenario. The reason is that we are caught in a classic 'supply cannot match rising demand' trap and that will ensure that oil prices remain high for the forseeable future unless demand falls due to a global recession. There will be a time lag before new reserves are tapped and extracted to be able to balance the current shortfall so oil is inevitably going to act as a brake on consumer spending.
Whilst oil prices will reduce consumer disposable income there is even a bigger factor looming in the background which could turn an oil inspired consumer slowdown into a real recession. That factor is the housing bubble. Property prices have virtually doubled over the past 5 years and mortgage debt has risen to $4 trillion. Think about it - $4 trillion - that is the equivalent to 35% of annual GDP !
There already is a housing bubble and that Fed knows it although they try to downplay this by referring to it as "froth". Greenspan has caused this as a result of lowering interest rates to 1% to stave off recession after the dotcom crash and succeeded in averting it then by creating an alternative housing bubble. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. The Fed has no choice but to carry on raising rates going forward since they need to put the breaks on house prices before this bubble bursts in a more spectacular fashion causing a full blown recession. Consequently the combination of rising interest rates on high personal debt levels coupled with the impact of high oil prices will inevitably hit consumer spending elsewhere and this will negatively impact the markets.
The catalyst for these converging problems will almost certainly be delayed until Greenspan leaves office in January. However the issue that interests us here is when will this looming problem be factored into the stock markets which anticipate what is likely to happen next rather than reflect what is going on today.
Will we see a real downturn this autumn or will the current Goldilocks story survive until the new year ?
One thing is for sure - it will happen and when it does it will be bloody !
Dow at 9000 and SPX at 1100 anybody ?
