Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[aspex]

user,
Very plausible.
I too am bearish
refer: http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/20050622.asp#prediction

 

[kriesau]

user,
Very plausible.
I too am bearish
refer: http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/20050622.asp#prediction

Fascinating - also a good article on the US Housing Bubble.

 

[User]

refer: http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/20050622.asp#prediction

Interesting link aspex....

 

[jonnyy40]

I hope someone's keeping score.There must be a statistical sample available by now to see who is the most accurate and then we can all follow him/her.

 

[Bigbusiness]

user,
Very plausible.
I too am bearish
refer: http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/20050622.asp#prediction

I am not impressed by their prediction from 2002:-

http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/20021031.asp#prediction

 

[aspex]

Bb,
To each his own...................

 

[Racer]

I hope someone's keeping score.There must be a statistical sample available by now to see who is the most accurate and then we can all follow him/her.

And then you will find that they will start being completely wrong all the time :cheesy:

 

[Bigbusiness]

Bb,
To each his own...................

So do you think their previous predictions have been good? They all seem to predict a down move but the market has gone up. Perhaps I have missed something but that doesn't seem impressive to me.

 

[kriesau]

Dow Futures Sudden Drop

Whats happening with the Dow Futures ?
They have suddenly dropped 42pts in literally the last few minutes !
Is there some news that I haven't seen or heard ?

 

[Racer]

--U.S. wholesale prices made their biggest climb in nine months during July as costs surged for gasoline and cars.

The producer price index for finished goods rose last month by 1.0%, the largest increase since a 1.5% climb in October 2004, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The so-called core index, which excludes food and energy items, increased 0.4%, the biggest increase in six months.

Wall Street was surprised by the increases. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had called for a 0.6% rise in the overall index and a 0.1% advance in the core index.

 

[kriesau]

--U.S. wholesale prices made their biggest climb in nine months during July as costs surged for gasoline and cars.

The producer price index for finished goods rose last month by 1.0%, the largest increase since a 1.5% climb in October 2004, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The so-called core index, which excludes food and energy items, increased 0.4%, the biggest increase in six months.

Wall Street was surprised by the increases. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had called for a 0.6% rise in the overall index and a 0.1% advance in the core index.

Cheers Racer - I'm still surprised that it should produce such a dramatic reaction - just goes to show how nervous the market is at the moment. :cheesy:

 

[jonty69]

Looks pretty nervous to me. That shift triggered a sell order that I had open at 10495 to catch us on the way down below the support at 10500, and looks like it's bounced now. Hmmmm. Anybody think we're going to head down and test the support again? Perhaps improve on yeterdays shorts?

 

[kriesau]

Looks pretty nervous to me. That shift triggered a sell order that I had open at 10495 to catch us on the way down below the support at 10500, and looks like it's bounced now. Hmmmm. Anybody think we're going to head down and test the support again? Perhaps improve on yeterdays shorts?

Could be a sideways or consolidation day after a 120pt drop yesterday. HP is up 8.5% before the open and that could move a few techs like Intel, Microsoft, Honeywell and IBM up too.

A consolidation day could see a range from 10500 - 10575 but look for a real breach of 10500 to initiate the next downward leg to 10400.

 

[Minder]

Looks pretty nervous to me. That shift triggered a sell order that I had open at 10495 to catch us on the way down below the support at 10500, and looks like it's bounced now. Hmmmm. Anybody think we're going to head down and test the support again? Perhaps improve on yeterdays shorts?

I got caught out a couple of time in the last few months with orders to open that were too close to resistance. I now look to set orders a minimum of 15 points away. I also try to avoid placing orders too far out before the market opens. The futures market is pushed and pulled all ways. Too risky.

Good luck

 

[Adamned]

According to my analysis in the eym contract an intermediate term ceiling has been firmly set at 10,700. I will enter a bearish stance today if the dow can surrender at least 30 points on 100,000 plus volume. Any one who trades the eym,ndj, or dia have a thought about this entry in the context of a two month or so time frame?

Cheers, Adam

 

[User]

I expect yesterday's lows to breached in today's session but the markets to then close higher....

Good Luck

 

[kriesau]

I got caught out a couple of time in the last few months with orders to open that were too close to resistance. I now look to set orders a minimum of 15 points away. I also try to avoid placing orders too far out before the market opens. The futures market is pushed and pulled all ways. Too risky.

Good luck

Good point Minder. I've been caught that way too. If orders are placed outside of market hours I tend to wait until just before the bell. The problem always lies with overnight movements on open positions.

 

[Adamned]

Thanks for the help I meant to say a negative close of at least 30 points. Do you have any thoughts regarding the total breakdown of the RLX index. With out that index its very unlikely that the dow can breakout to any new highs.

 

[kriesau]

Dow is being held up by HP who are nearly 10% up this morning.
Otherwise Adv 12 (mainly Techs) v Dec 18

 

[Racer]

Filled the gap (on the futures that is)