Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Dow just touched bottom of trendline on 5 day ticks around 10650/60
Do we get a fail or advance here?

Nas resistance at 2175 and S&P hasn't got as far as resistance at 1238
 
Wal-Mart earnings rise 5.8%, 3Q below Street forecasts (6:26 AM ET) LONDON (AFX) -- Wal-Mart Stores said second-quarter earnings rose 5.8% to a record $2.8 billion, or 67 cents a share, with revenue up 10% to $77.5 billion. The retailing giant's earnings were above Thomson First Call-compiled earnings forecasts of 65 cents a share and met revenue estimates. It sees third-quarter earnings per share between 55 cents and 59 cents, while fiscal year EPS forecasts are seen between $2.63 to $2.70. Analysts were looking for third-quarter EPS of 60 cents and 2005 EPS of $2.66.
Home Depot (NYSE: HD - news) quarterly profit rises, lifts 2005 earnings view (6:19 AM ET) LONDON (AFX) -- Home Depot, Inc. said second-quarter net profit rose 17.1% to $1.8 billion, or 82 cents a share, from the year-earlier quarter and lifted its 2005 earnings outlook. Revenue for the period climbed 11.7% to $22.3 billion, with same-store sales up 4%. The results beat the average forecast for earnings of 79 cents a share and revenue of $22 billion of analysts polled by Thomson First Call. Looking ahead, the home products and services provider reiterated its outlook for 2005 sales growth between 9% and 12%. and lifted its earnings guidance for the year, saying it expects growth of between 14% and 17%.
 
This is a bit of a change.. Friday to Monday they didn't push the futures pre-open, and now today as well? Hmm, perhaps they got fed up with the selling into the rise? Trying to pump it from the other direction this time?
 
S&P at 1228 support, dow approaching 10550 support.

Any thoughts on volume ? will we get a break or a bounce ?

I'm not sure so I am taking some profit on a short from 10609, with an order to open short below 10550.
 
real shame that: I thought we had a good chance of cracking that 10560 area. There must be good stop orders being protected there or the options boys are making sure their 1220-1230 puts expire worthless. For my money my worry is that Crude is due a quick drop and that will catapult us back to 10700+. We need the break to get the ship moving.
 
I would agree with this. Everything seems to be looking as if we will get a bounce off the 10,550 level of support.

My system seems to be setting up for generating a signal as well and I would expect one around 4.30pm to 6pm the way it is shaping up at the moment.

If there is one, I will add it to my journal.
 
Elliott wave

I read on another board that the chop of the last week looks like a wave 4 flat with the possibility of a wave 5 up from here.

I have no experience of EW analysis, any EW enthusiasts care to comment ?

Any bounce here will carry us higher, but I think the significance is that as a wave 5 up, it could well break to new highs.

Please don't be shy in correcting me if this BS. Just trying to learn.
 
Oil flat today but Gold up by nearly 1%

The intermediate support level of 10550 has now been breached. Is this going to test support at 10500 or will we get another afternoon rally back up towards 10600 ?
 
Sunshine is an essential component in the growth of most living things and it now turns out that it can also have an impact on the stock market. A research paper entitled "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather"


by David Hirshleifer from The Ohio State University and Tyler Shumway of the University of Michigan found that the difference between market returns on a sunny day versus an overcast day to be 0.09%, an annualized difference of 24.8%

Several psychological studies have shown that sunlight positively affects mood. People in a good mood are more likely to have an optimistic outlook on the future which, in the case of trading, translates into a more bullish sentiment. Past research has also indicated that people in good moods are not as likely to critically investigate evidence which may cause traders on sunny days to place less evidence on negative market indicators and amplify positive ones.

This research doesn’t mean you should change the channel from CNBC to the Weather Channel though. While the difference between sunny days and overcast days is quite dramatic, it does not include the transaction costs and commissions that would reduce any overall gain.
 
ducati998 said:
Sunshine is an essential component in the growth of most living things and it now turns out that it can also have an impact on the stock market. A research paper entitled "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather"


by David Hirshleifer from The Ohio State University and Tyler Shumway of the University of Michigan found that the difference between market returns on a sunny day versus an overcast day to be 0.09%, an annualized difference of 24.8%

Several psychological studies have shown that sunlight positively affects mood. People in a good mood are more likely to have an optimistic outlook on the future which, in the case of trading, translates into a more bullish sentiment. Past research has also indicated that people in good moods are not as likely to critically investigate evidence which may cause traders on sunny days to place less evidence on negative market indicators and amplify positive ones.

This research doesn’t mean you should change the channel from CNBC to the Weather Channel though. While the difference between sunny days and overcast days is quite dramatic, it does not include the transaction costs and commissions that would reduce any overall gain.
Does that mean that a bi-product of global warming will be bull markets ? :cheesy:
 
Minder said:
S&P at 1228 support, dow approaching 10550 support.

Any thoughts on volume ? will we get a break or a bounce ?

I'm not sure so I am taking some profit on a short from 10609, with an order to open short below 10550.
Thats looking like a good call at the moment.
I went short too at 10547 & 10535 :)
 
..rats rear end

Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Up.. net up that is.

But it don't matter a rat's rear end because the money is in the gyrations.
And today.. just a mere 100+ points move.
:)
 
The down move has started....

If you think you have missed the move by seeing today's action then I would say you simply haven't......You're currently viewing the price at 10500+ so 10000 is an 'easy' target over the next month or so......still an easy short......and still at good levels......

Good Luck.

10500 doesn't seem like any real form of support so I expect the market to slide below that level pretty easily....on the weekly charts it seems as if 10400 is the level to watch.....breakdown from that level could spark a move towards 9800...
 
User as you may have guessed I am a bear as well, but I don't think we will get a smooth drop from here, the PPT will fight it all the way, they have been spinning plates as well as words so they won't stop yet
 
User said:
The down move has started....

If you think you have missed the move by seeing today's action then I would say you simply haven't......You're currently viewing the price at 10500+ so 10000 is an 'easy' target over the next month or so......still an easy short......and still at good levels......

Good Luck.

10500 doesn't seem like any real form of support so I expect the market to slide below that level pretty easily....on the weekly charts it seems as if 10400 is the level to watch.....breakdown from that level could spark a move towards 9800...


Interesting. Dow Cash Futures are up 18pts after the close whilst the SPX and NDX are down by 4pts and 3.5pts respectively. Whilst I think your interpretation is on the right track we still need to break through 10500 to clear the range that has been prevalent over the last few weeks and then breach support at both 10400 and 10300 before a retest of the major support at 10000.

SPX had its lowest close in nearly 4 weeks but we really need to see it close below 1215 to validate a trend downshift.

Good luck on shorts tomorrow.
 
Racer said:
User as you may have guessed I am a bear as well, but I don't think we will get a smooth drop from here, the PPT will fight it all the way, they have been spinning plates as well as words so they won't stop yet

PPT is certainly the wild card in this equation
 
Yes the PPT will be out in force, we have had a bearish rising wedge to mid June which fell.. they stepped in on the London bombings and pushed it up and then it has not been able to follow through but has formed a rounded topping pattern which broke down today, could get a few more props to keep the buyers interested and not trigger a big drop.. boil frogs slowly as they say...

oh and we have the Sept/Oct time of year which is ooooooo verrryyyy shiver shake scary months for the markets, coming verrrry shake close.....
the monsters and the ghouls come out to haunt at that time of the year
 
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