Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

lemput said:
hard work being short this market! Go away for 2 days having seen the nice close at 10535, and the bulls manage to bring the momentum back their way in quick time. BTW any levels we are watching on the upside?- i was looking for the 720-30 to hold. we are looking to open up 50 points higher again so that gap we had should be pretty filled, and hopefully we get sold off down to more sanguine levels!
Click to expand...
Dow cash futures now up by 78pts (10.30am). This market has an air of unreality about it.

Oil is still above $63 this morning and we have the latest trade and budget deficit due on Friday.

The overwhelming mood on this board has been bearish for more than a week now. The market slid from 10700 on Thursday to a low of 10500 on Monday yet with yesterdays rise and the overnight futures it is virtually back to 10700 again. Looks like the market really believes that Greenspan has everything under control with a firm hand on the tiller.

Very strange scenario at the moment. We are overdue a significant correction but like the proverbial bus who knows when it will actually arrive :!: :!: :!:
 
Pat494 said:
Kriseau
Caught a load of prawns yesterday opposite Castaways !!
Hopefully DJ down towards the end of the week ??
Click to expand...
Ah, I was there on Sunday afternoon - save some for me :LOL:

Great weather over the past 10 days and it looks like continuing to the weekend. Probably best to make the most of it while waiting for Wall St to untangle all of the knots that they appear to be tying themselves into :cheesy:
 
Some resistance above 10710 it seems.
Almost tempted to have a short from here !
 
I hate this market :(

Placed two orders today. One daily cash futures to sell short at 10698, stop 25 points on. Order was filled - and stopped out 3 points from the top of that market.

Second was a Sept 05 contract to sell short at 10710, 25 point stop. Filled and closed a single point from the top of that market.

What is a reasonable margin for a stop at these (supposedly) well established resistance levels ?

Fwiw, I caught the second stop closing and (against my better judgement) chased it with a small short, limit on to recover the losses on the others.

It is not so much the capital losses, the lost opportunity to gain on such a large move intra day is a real pain.
 
And look at that... futures moving up sharply after hours.. what do you reckon on futures being up 50 in the morning like the other days.

Pump and dump.....

How many more times will they do it!
 
Racer said:
And look at that... futures moving up sharply after hours.. what do you reckon on futures being up 50 in the morning like the other days.

Pump and dump.....

How many more times will they do it!
Click to expand...


As long as the oil price keeps making new highs... But I did see resistance at 720, After hours it looks like we are

going long tomorrow.
 
just boring my girlfriend to death with the same argument Racer about futures creeping up after the close. It seems to be a regular occurence, then in the morning we have another little spike when the DAX and FTSE are ultra firm and away we go.
 
User, are you still short?
Click to expand...

Yep!

The market action today was funny to say the least.....

Nasdaq showed some decent stuff.....

10700-20 has problems. If we take that out then we could see a breakout fakeout. We still could stay sideways for the whole of August but once the decline gets underway it'll be pretty horrible.....

Upside is dangerous, downside just needs patience as when we start to slide we'll 'surely' be aware of it.....problem is it'll be over before you can act on it.......

Don't get sucked into this dying bull market.

Good Luck....
 
maybe when we see the futures dropping after hours we know the market is turning having topped. Just wish it would hurry up this top is taking forever to rollover but when it does all those cyborg hedgies will start reversing and selling every rally and drop it like mad i think.

What can you say about Oil it is relentless

Rustic
 
Minder said:
I hate this market :(

Placed two orders today. One daily cash futures to sell short at 10698, stop 25 points on. Order was filled - and stopped out 3 points from the top of that market.

Second was a Sept 05 contract to sell short at 10710, 25 point stop. Filled and closed a single point from the top of that market.

What is a reasonable margin for a stop at these (supposedly) well established resistance levels ?

Fwiw, I caught the second stop closing and (against my better judgement) chased it with a small short, limit on to recover the losses on the others.

It is not so much the capital losses, the lost opportunity to gain on such a large move intra day is a real pain.
Click to expand...

Two thoughts
1. Decent points can be made on overnight reversals especially from a big move.
2. You could consider using daily cash spreads without a stop -
it's a bit risky but if you are fairly sure and are watching the market then one doesn't get caught by the market makers oscillating the market to catch the cautious and unwary.
 
Pat, I disagree to the second point - of using a daily cash spread without a stop. How does that fit into any risk managment strategy? Of course market makers will take the markets to obvious orders and in some cases breach these levels by a significant amount. Just a small word of warning, always use stops and limits - Minder. Trust your levels.
Regards
MarvinS
 
GLOBAL TRADER said:
Pat, I disagree to the second point - of using a daily cash spread without a stop. How does that fit into any risk managment strategy? Of course market makers will take the markets to obvious orders and in some cases breach these levels by a significant amount. Just a small word of warning, always use stops and limits - Minder. Trust your levels.
Regards
MarvinS
Click to expand...

I don't trade without stops. I agree that sometimes there will be breaches of resistance / support that are significant enough to trigger stops, but the direction will reverse.

More often a break of support or resistance will result in continuation and for that reason the stop loss is important.

Frustrating yesterday, but I think we will see another test at 10700ish and another failure at that level. I will just use a wider stop. :D
 
GLOBAL TRADER said:
Pat, I disagree to the second point - of using a daily cash spread without a stop. How does that fit into any risk managment strategy? Of course market makers will take the markets to obvious orders and in some cases breach these levels by a significant amount. Just a small word of warning, always use stops and limits - Minder. Trust your levels.
Regards
MarvinS
Click to expand...

Stops are imho suited to pre-fixed entry levels e.g.
today's levels are given on another thread as :-
buy at 10637 target 10686
sell at 10594 target 10571

However quite a bit of profit has already gone even if you get it right or one will be stopped out fairly easily. One has to suit one's own trading style and psychology.
 
Early indicators
Oil at $65
Adv 23 v Dec 7
Only 2 companies with more than a 1% change - Alcoa up 2% & Intel down 1%
Could go either way today.
 
Minder - i know sometimes that some guys feel comfortable not leaving stops. Sometimes you just have to trade the way you feel at the time. Absolutely!
How many times have you moved a stop - just a little bit? I find placing your stop strategically is just as important as the timing of your trade.
 
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