Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

karmit said:
started shorting crude now.......

Agreed. I open a small short on Sept 05 US Light Crude at 64.04. I see limited upside from here unless George W Gump declares war on Iran, or some other geopolitical issue squeezes supply.

Support levels ?
 
houdani said:
fed rate cut looming,the last 3 out of four cuts have signalled an immediate 100 point drop in the dow.

Don't want to be picky or anything but I think a Rate rise is expected by most analysts
User's downward forecasts seem to be coming true at last.
 
Hi Everyone,

I was looking at the charts last night and saw the potential for a bounce at this level, I think we may see one up to 10,580 - 10,590 and could possibly see the day finishing around this level. However once this test of the upper level has been completed then I would envisage more downside ahead.

My system gave a buy signal at 8pm last night, but this was a short term one - up to a maximum of being held for 1 day. The signal was at 10,535/39 and the exit point around 10,582/86 - Lets see how it goes.

From there I would envisage the index heading downward again, possibly retesting the support level at 10,380.
 
Pat494 said:
Don't want to be picky or anything but I think a Rate rise is expected by most analysts
User's downward forecasts seem to be coming true at last.

User, where are you? - busy shorting ? :cheesy:
 
houdani said:
fed rate cut looming,the last 3 out of four cuts have signalled an immediate 100 point drop in the dow.
sorry,meant hike, either way thers no 100 point drop coming.
 
Nothing is fixed where the market is concerned! We could indeed get a 100 point drop..... ;)
 
kriesau said:
What's the significance of 10625 ?
basically just above near-term support,where my closest stop is. i quite rashly jumped in with another short when the market went through 10570 last friday.
 
Fed confirms 25 basis points rise to 3.5% as expected. The "measured pace" phrase continues to be contained in their statement. Initial market reaction appears to be positive since this is what was expected.
 
houdani said:
basically just above near-term support,where my closest stop is. i quite rashly jumped in with another short when the market went through 10570 last friday.
Ooops - never mind - you live to fight another day. :cheesy:

I had shorts at 10610 - closed it out yesterday at 10555 for 55 pts, at 10555 - stopped out yesterday at break even and 10528 - closed out today at 10575 for minus 47 pts. :!:
 
From the report on low Inventories last week, or the week before, add,

AP
Productivity Growth Shows Solid Performance
Tuesday August 9, 1:34 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Productivity Growth Turns in Solid Spring Performance, Pressure on Labor Costs Eases


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Productivity growth turned in a solid performance in the spring while the pressure on labor costs eased significantly, the government reported Tuesday.
The Labor Department said that productivity -- output per hour of work -- rose at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter. That was down from a 3.2 percent gain in the first three months of the year but remained high enough to guarantee continued increases in living standards, analysts said.



In good news for inflation, unit labor costs slowed to an annual increase of just 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter, substantially below the increases of the previous nine months which had raised fears of rising cost pressures.

While workers benefit from higher wages, the Federal Reserve closely watches the path of labor costs for early warning signs of mounting wage pressures which could foster unwanted inflation. Analysts said the slowdown in unit labor costs seen in the latest report will allow the Fed to continue nudging up interest rates at a gradual pace.

"These are OK numbers that indicate businesses are doing their best to keep down costs and keep up efficiencies," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors, a consulting firm in Holland, Pa.

On Wall Street, stocks moved higher Tuesday as oil prices retreated a bit from record highs hit on Monday.

Productivity has been surging in the years following the 2001 recession as American businesses laid off workers as a way to hold down costs. While the huge productivity gains of the past three years are coming to an end, analysts believe productivity will remain strong enough to keep inflation in check.

"Usually coming out of a recession, you get a real spurt in productivity, which we got, but now things are settling down to what by historical standards are still very strong gains in productivity," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

The slowdown in productivity growth from the super-sized numbers of past years reflects the fact that businesses have finally reached a point where they need to hire workers to keep up with demand for their products, a good sign for people looking for jobs. The government reported last Friday that payrolls grew by 207,000 workers in June, the strongest showing in three months.

The 2.2 percent rise in productivity in the second quarter was the smallest gain since a tiny 1.3 percent increase in the July-September quarter of last year.

The 1.3 percent increase in unit labor costs was the smallest gain since unit labor costs actually fell by 0.8 percent in the spring of last year.

With Tuesday's report, the Labor Department lowered its estimates for productivity growth in the past three years to reflect revisions in the gross domestic product announced late last month.

With those revisions, productivity grew by 3.4 percent last year rather than the previously reported 4 percent gain. Productivity growth in 2003 was lowered to 3.8 percent, instead of 4.3 percent, and 4 percent in 2002 rather than the previously reported 4.3 percent.

With slightly lower output per hour of work, unit labor costs were revised upward to 1.1 percent in 2004, instead of 0.8 percent; 0.2 percent in 2003 instead of a drop of 0.3 percent, and a drop of 0.3 percent in 2002 rather than a bigger decline of 0.8 percent, as was previously reported.

Higher productivity allows businesses to pay their employees more without raising prices for their products. That means the pay increases are not eroded by higher inflation.
 
Dow Direction

Probably have to wait until Friday, when the latest trade and budget deficit figures are announced, before we see any meaningful move in the Dow.
 
Some after hours reports

DIS has lost some of its gains on after hours results
AIG no results so far
CSCO gained a little more on results
 
CSCO losing the gains rapidly now after hours..and speed increasing..


Cisco CEO Sees FY1Q Revenue Down Slightly Vs. 4Q
Cisco CEO Sees FY1Q Revenue Up 10% Vs. A Year Ago
Cisco CEO Sees FY2006 Orders Growing 10%-15%
Cisco: Industry Sees Slowing Momentum In Europe
Cisco CEO: China Still 'Uniquely Challenging' To Co.
Cisco: Core Router, Switch Businesses Up Single Digits
Cisco: 4Q Gross Margin 67.9% Vs. 68.4% A Year Ago
 
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09/08 22:08 - PRESS RELEASE: Statement from Daniel H. Mudd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Fannie Mae, August 9, 2005

WASHINGTON, Aug. 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The following is a statement by Daniel H. Mudd, President and Chief Executive Officer of Fannie Mae:


Last December, the SEC required Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) to restate our prior financial statements to eliminate the use of hedge accounting and, to the extent material, to correct for errors in our accounting for deferred purchase price adjustments. Our safety and soundness regulator, OFHEO, also raised questions with respect to our accounting, which has led us to undertake a comprehensive review of our accounting policies and practices. Today, in our SEC Form 12b-25 filing, Fannie Mae provided details on this work and several relevant implications of the restatement.


Completing this restatement is Fannie Mae's number-one corporate priority, and we are moving forward. The effort is led by a top executive team -- interim Chief Financial Officer Rob Levin, our new Controller, David Hisey, and our Executive Vice President for Regulatory Agreements and Restatement, Mike Williams -- working with our new independent auditor, Deloitte & Touche, LLP. All of these activities either report directly to the Board of Directors' Audit Committee or to me. This process involves every line of business and entails a comprehensive review of our accounting practices, including those related to derivatives, mortgage purchase and sale commitments, and investment securities, among others.


The restatement begins with a reevaluation of all of our accounting policies and practices. Then, coupled with the known issues and any further issues we identify in the process, we will implement new accounting procedures, develop new systems, and install new routines and controls. We will then move to the stage of reprocessing historical transactions, and to a lesser degree, even where the accounting policy is unchanged, we will have to demonstrate the accuracy of the accounting we used for those practices. This will produce a complete re-audit of all aspects of our financial statements. Finally, while Deloitte & Touche already has begun certain pieces of their audit, the firm will only be able to audit the portions of our financial statements requiring restatement once we have completed all of our work described above. We are undertaking aspects of this effort simultaneously wherever possible, but much of the work has to occur in sequence; some of the activities, such as developing and implementing new systems, are long duration projects by their very nature.


We are leaving no stone unturned. To accomplish this, we have to obtain and validate market values for a large volume of transactions including all of our derivatives, commitments and securities at multiple points in time over the restatement period. To illustrate the breadth of this undertaking, we estimate we will need to record over one million lines of journal entries, determine hundreds of thousands of commitment prices and securities values, and verify some 20,000 derivative prices.


As our normal business operations continue, we also are committing every available resource to the restatement. This year we expect that over 30 percent of our employees will spend over half their time on it, and many more are involved. In addition, we are bringing some 1,500 consultants on board by year's end to help with the restatement. We have organized lines of accountability, a Project Management Office, regular review and reporting and ongoing Board oversight. Altogether, we project devoting six to eight million labor hours to the restatement. We also are investing over $100 million in technology projects to enhance or create new systems related to accounting and reporting. We are fortunate to begin with a talented, committed group of employees. We also have had great success in recruiting a strong team and have significantly increased the size of our Controllers Department.


From the beginning of this effort, I have said that we will put as much time, manpower and resources into the restatement as the restatement needs, and we will not be done until we are confident we have done it right. While we do not believe the restatement will be completed until sometime during the second half of 2006, our goal is to get our restatement right and to complete it as efficiently and expeditiously as possible.


Finally, as we also disclosed in our Form 12b-25 today, as we work through our restatement and review, Fannie Mae is engaged in regular discussions with the staff of the New York Stock Exchange regarding the status of our restatement and continued listing through completion of the restatement.


We are committed and determined to get this work done, get it right, and continue on the path of restoring investor, market and public confidence in Fannie Mae.


Fannie Mae is a New York Stock Exchange Company. It operates pursuant to a federal charter. Fannie Mae has pledged through its American Dream Commitment to expand access to homeownership for millions of first-time home buyers; help raise the minority homeownership rate to 55 percent; make homeownership and rental housing a success for millions of families at risk of losing their homes; and expand the supply of affordable housing where it is needed mose
 
hard work being short this market! Go away for 2 days having seen the nice close at 10535, and the bulls manage to bring the momentum back their way in quick time. BTW any levels we are watching on the upside?- i was looking for the 720-30 to hold. we are looking to open up 50 points higher again so that gap we had should be pretty filled, and hopefully we get sold off down to more sanguine levels!
 
kriesau said:
Probably have to wait until Friday, when the latest trade and budget deficit figures are announced, before we see any meaningful move in the Dow.

Kriseau
Caught a load of prawns yesterday opposite Castaways !!
Hopefully DJ down towards the end of the week ??
 
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