Bluewave
Active member
- Messages
- 240
- Likes
- 2
Racer said:
A large medical study done a few years back, showed that everyone in the study group had traces of polytetrafluoro ethylene (teflon) in their system!
Maybe this was not all due to non-stick cookware, as it is used widely in other things. And people wonder why cancer cases are on the increase!hmm.... can anybody explain why INTC, MOT etc are down even after showing results upto market expectations?
Is it that they have to consistently beat the expectation?
or
Is it just that they increased too much in the last 3 months so a "correction" was in order?
or
Is it "buy the rumour, sell the news" in play again?
or
??
anyway... will be shorting them first thing tomorrow afternoon.. hope to scalp something!
cheers,
karmit
Is it that they have to consistently beat the expectation?
or
Is it just that they increased too much in the last 3 months so a "correction" was in order?
or
Is it "buy the rumour, sell the news" in play again?
or
??
anyway... will be shorting them first thing tomorrow afternoon.. hope to scalp something!
cheers,
karmit
Racer
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,666
- Likes
- 30
Semi Book-to-Bill
June Semi equipment industry prelim book-to-bill was reported last night. Ratio rose to 0.93 in June. The three-month average of worldwide bookings were $1.07 bln, 5.5% above May's level of $1.02 bln and 33% below the $1.61 bln in orders posted in the same time a year ago.
June Semi equipment industry prelim book-to-bill was reported last night. Ratio rose to 0.93 in June. The three-month average of worldwide bookings were $1.07 bln, 5.5% above May's level of $1.02 bln and 33% below the $1.61 bln in orders posted in the same time a year ago.
roguetrader
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,062
- Likes
- 49
Market held up well again in response to a little mid-morning selling after the gap today, after lunch buyers stepped in. Total market volume surged by roughly 25% on both markets. Internals while fairly bullish most of the morning also surged in the afternoon session.
Still all that said the INDU and SPX continue to struggle with their relative resistance levels in the 1229 and 10,650 area.
I would advise extreme caution on either side of the market at this point, depending on your time horizon and tolerance for pain. To me one of two things are happening here in light of the volume........
1/ Smart money is shorting into dumb money strength and we are going to move sharply lower. or
2/ Smart money is quietly accumulating, while dumb money shorts.
The latter is very unlikely to me, but not impossible, the problem is though, and reason I mentioned time horizons and pain tolerance is that while the latter senario means a surge higher for the next leg.
The former does not mean an immediate selloff. It is quite possible that the indices are pushed higher first to draw all the doubters into the game. That push would be painful if you weren't prepared for it.
Still all that said the INDU and SPX continue to struggle with their relative resistance levels in the 1229 and 10,650 area.
I would advise extreme caution on either side of the market at this point, depending on your time horizon and tolerance for pain. To me one of two things are happening here in light of the volume........
1/ Smart money is shorting into dumb money strength and we are going to move sharply lower. or
2/ Smart money is quietly accumulating, while dumb money shorts.
The latter is very unlikely to me, but not impossible, the problem is though, and reason I mentioned time horizons and pain tolerance is that while the latter senario means a surge higher for the next leg.
The former does not mean an immediate selloff. It is quite possible that the indices are pushed higher first to draw all the doubters into the game. That push would be painful if you weren't prepared for it.
Last edited:
roguetrader
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,062
- Likes
- 49
I don't normally post trades, and this should not be seen as trading advice, but due to the increase in volume today with another failed attempt by the INDU and SPX to push through resistance I have started to accumulate short positions across the market. As stated above it is my belief that there is the potential for upside still and as such my initial positions are small, I am looking to leg into a full position if we move up. Timeframe is end of year.
trendie
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,875
- Likes
- 1,433
whats going on with the Dow ? (sorry if dealt with before, only skimming this thread)
Monday evening, Dow clsoed 10,575. Immediately after close, the futures rise by 60 or so to about 10,630.
Tuesday, apart from 75 point rise in early minutes, trades sideways.
Tuesday evening, Dow closes at 10,646. Immediately after close, Dow futs drop to 10,610.
Is this weird or what?!
( I am not realy complaining, I went short Tues am at 10,630, as downside seemed the better option )
Monday evening, Dow clsoed 10,575. Immediately after close, the futures rise by 60 or so to about 10,630.
Tuesday, apart from 75 point rise in early minutes, trades sideways.
Tuesday evening, Dow closes at 10,646. Immediately after close, Dow futs drop to 10,610.
Is this weird or what?!
( I am not realy complaining, I went short Tues am at 10,630, as downside seemed the better option )
I think that your point illustrates the current uncertainty regarding direction. It is probably more difficult to interpret the market today than at any time this year. If it can convincingly breach resistance at 10660 then it could quickly retest the years high at around 11000. On the otherhand if we break below 10550 we could see a retest of the years low at 10000.roguetrader said:
While I agree with your sentiment that the direction in the second half will be down, the timing is still very uncertain and you need to be brave (and use short stops) to go either long or short at this juncture until the next move is clearly established. Should be a real opportunity to accumulate 200/300pts once the next move is clearly defined.
We have 5 Dow components reporting today plus a swathe of other S & P companies.
Oil remains below $58
Retail spending is still buoyant
House prices are still rising
The Fed is certain to continue rate hikes by 25pts per month until it hits 4%
Greenspan is still making positive comments about economic growth
Dollar is strengthening and the Euro is still weakening.
Any Chinese Yuan revaluation will have little effect on the US Budget deficit
Domestic tax revenues are rising to cap the domestic budget deficit
US manufacturing is declining
Unempolyment is begining to show signs of increasing
Consumer Credit is at alarmingly high levels
What a pastiche of economic data. Trying to find the meatballs in this bowl of spaghetti is not easy.
The markets will retreat this year but pinpointing the timing for this is the real conundrum !
Racer
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,666
- Likes
- 30
Several companies results pre-market today, but finding out if they beat estimates or not if proving very difficult to determine as I have seen downside alerts on one news source and an upside alert on another... for the same company. So forget that... just going to see if the share price goes up or down!!
macbonzo
Well-known member
- Messages
- 292
- Likes
- 6
Racer said:
Yes it is difficult to predict. I have just watched the futures drop 20 points on GM's results a few minutes ago.
INTC is down 4.5% pre market, however UTX looks good.
Yesterday, I did notice a lot of selling on the Dow at 10660 despite IBM, F and CAT all flying. In fact we fell 30 points almost in a straight line early on.
I now think we are struggling to push 10660, which I think is a very good short level. With Cramer talking up CAT's results (due tomorrow), my guess is we will see selling into strength.
Racer
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,666
- Likes
- 30
FTSE 100 has gone from 48 up to only up 8.0
CAC.. Danone, has been the main reason it has gone vertical!
Danone builds up defenses to a takeover - WSJ (55.54 )
According to the WSJ, Danone is fortifying its defenses in a bid to remain independent, as its shares soared yesterday on speculation that PepsiCo is readying a bid for the co. It isn't clear whether Pepsi, which has talked to Danone in the past about a potential combination, or any other co would make an offer. Any bid would face fierce opposition from Danone's mgmt and the French political establishment. According to people familiar with the matter, no talks are under way between Pepsi and Danone, and Pepsi called "untrue" reports that it was amassing stock in Danone. One person familiar with the matter said there had been "zero" contact between the two co's, and said he had "no idea" why the longstanding rumor was bubbling up again.
CAC.. Danone, has been the main reason it has gone vertical!
Danone builds up defenses to a takeover - WSJ (55.54 )
According to the WSJ, Danone is fortifying its defenses in a bid to remain independent, as its shares soared yesterday on speculation that PepsiCo is readying a bid for the co. It isn't clear whether Pepsi, which has talked to Danone in the past about a potential combination, or any other co would make an offer. Any bid would face fierce opposition from Danone's mgmt and the French political establishment. According to people familiar with the matter, no talks are under way between Pepsi and Danone, and Pepsi called "untrue" reports that it was amassing stock in Danone. One person familiar with the matter said there had been "zero" contact between the two co's, and said he had "no idea" why the longstanding rumor was bubbling up again.
User
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,170
- Likes
- 23
In 13 out of the past 17 cases since 1997, the S&P reversed direction on the day of the monetary policy report from the previous days movements......
So yesterday was UP and today we have a 76% chance of closing lower in relation to the past. Sorry I didn't post the stat yesterday but I managed to get my shorts in.....
Seems like we will be closing down today.......
One things for sure we're getting problems at 10650 again.......! We could range trade for a while then breakout in minor fashion and then decline or simply we start to decline from the 10650 area pretty soon......
I don't think yesterday was last day of those levels........we'll most probably see them again latter this week. One things for sure my research is showing some serious down moves ahead possibly in the next few months.......many indicators are giving indications of long term weakness......
Good Luck....
So yesterday was UP and today we have a 76% chance of closing lower in relation to the past. Sorry I didn't post the stat yesterday but I managed to get my shorts in.....
Seems like we will be closing down today.......
One things for sure we're getting problems at 10650 again.......! We could range trade for a while then breakout in minor fashion and then decline or simply we start to decline from the 10650 area pretty soon......
I don't think yesterday was last day of those levels........we'll most probably see them again latter this week. One things for sure my research is showing some serious down moves ahead possibly in the next few months.......many indicators are giving indications of long term weakness......
Good Luck....
