Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

peterpr said:
The shorts just got BADLY burned on the FTSE100 June LIFFE futures contract. It spiked up to 5137 before the contract closed for trading at 10:30. That's a good example of what can happen at contract expiry - nearly 50 points higher than the index high up to that point (pro-rata that's over 100 points on the DOW!). The contract closed for trading at 5131. OK there was panic - but that tells me there's more upside to come today on the Footsie because open interest delivery will be at today's index closing price. Of course it could just have been a load of novices panicking because volume was not exceptional during the spike. In any event those who covered during that spike will be kicking themselves if the index closes below 5130 today.

All great fun isn't it ? - You won't catch me anywhere near the YM June contract today, that's for sure.
Click to expand...

If we are seeing a similar spike on the Dow, at what time is option expiry and could we expect a reversal ?
 
binary bet possibility...

SP to close up 70-72

might well have a sell of that at a fiver a pop. :)

will it close down :)
 
fettered... have done exactly that on the binaries. I've got this feeling that today is not a sure thing for the bulls.
 
Minder said:
If we are seeing a similar spike on the Dow, at what time is option expiry and could we expect a reversal ?
Click to expand...

They do things a little differently in the States. For one thing there are 2 separate futures contracts for each of the main indices (one pit traded the other electronic). Pretty much all the volume moves over to the forward month one week and one day ahead of current month expiry (ie a week yesterday). Whereas on the LIFFE the June and September contract volumes were just about even stevens even yesterday. One things for sure, I wouldn't like to second guess what will happen in the US today. Funnymentals say it ought to tank but I wouldn't bet the farm on it - in fact I won't be doing anything today.
 
I should have added that the scope for panic - of the sort seen in the run-up to the 10:30 contract close on the LIFFE this morning - is limited in the US because the June contract finished trading at yesterday's market close. It's settlement is calculated by reference to a SOQ (special Open Quotation) price at market open this morning. However, the position jockeying of the options writers on the September contract, consequent upon their current book expiring is still considerable. The spike on the LIFFE was different in that it was clearly caused by the immanent trading close for the June contract .
 
peterpr said:
I should have added that the scope for panic - of the sort seen in the run-up to the 10:30 contract close on the LIFFE this morning - is limited in the US because the June contract finished trading at yesterday's market close. It's settlement is calculated by reference to a SOQ (special Open Quotation) price at market open this morning. However, the position jockeying of the options writers on the September contract, consequent upon their current book expiring is still considerable. The spike on the LIFFE was different in that it was clearly caused by the immanent trading close for the June contract .
Click to expand...

Peterpr

Thanks for the response. I'm out at the moment and will probably stay out, but it is compelling. The recent spate of bad news just doesn't sit well with the market position but I would be guessing the direction from here. Best left alone IMO.

Waiting until next week for a clearer picture.
 
OH happy day ........W P Twiggy.......and next week .........wait and see !!!

Now lets just see if Soc stands by the bull market.....
 
NYSE total volume appears to be running at a 100% increas to yeserday at this time, I can only assume it has been skewed by options expiry to some degree, if not there are an awful lot of longs trapped in that spike up.

TRIN's continue to move up. NYSE 0.82 Nasdaq 0.81 as the internals slowly drift lower.
 
Well it's established itself above 10600 for nearly 2 hours now but has not moved over 10660. Whilst the Consumer Confidence Index rise was much greater than expected this volatile sentiment indicator should hardly outweigh the reality of the record $195bn trade deficit and oil at $57.60 plus yesterdays Beige Book which showed domestic manufacturing has actually declined.

There is something very odd and unreal about this market.
 
There is nothing odd or unreal about this market at all, it is just that none of you really understand what it is you are in. My post 4908 of this thread refers. All of it is perfectly obvious to me, very clear indeed. I am not posting targets so as not to be bombarded with abuse yet again but you all should be mindful that the results the Dow will deliver are not exactly the ones you all seem to expect. Now is a time to be extremely careful but not a chronic bear.
 
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