Hope the JPG comes out okay -
first off please nobody ask me what the wierd indicators are - I just drew coloured blobs in 'Paint'. Look at the sequence, blue bottoms, red tops on the daily chart - it it heading uphill from approx April 18 to the last red blob in 3rd week of May, which it soon becomes apparent is inside the consolidation phase.
From then on we're in a trading range from about 10420 to 10600 (quickly sketched horizontal lines). The last 3 bars (today still in progress) are uphill, higher highs and higher lows, bulls could make a case I suppose but you've got to figure that the trading range is still intact, so treating it as a bullish breakout would be mindless optimisim, the bottoms ARE rising though, the pattern is becoming more triangular at the right hand side, so optimistic bulls have some sort of case.
Resumption of prior trend is generally a better bet than reversal - so I'm with Soc on probabilities for a start, but as I see it you trade this as a chart stuck in a trading range until it breaks out... what's with all this forecasting that the breakout is due? Suppose triple (quad <g>) witching passes and the market is still undecided? You might go bearish on fundamentals, I'm unaware of any form of TA that would describe this as a bearish chart based on where the candles are going or have been for the past few months.
IF the chart breaks below 10420 or so then fine, it's near the top at 10600 or a reverse up near 10420+, and the closer we are to those limits the happier I get.
Currently I'm watching to see whether it drops below today's range, or breaks above it - I suspect 'up', but will trade either.
Cheers
