Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

The last hour of a very tedious low volume day, Internals mixed, total voluume on both markets lagging badly. I feel a summer holiday coming on.

 

[DaveJB]

Crikey Rog,
add all the highs and all the lows as if they all occur at the same time - a recipe for disaster there then! I've had occasion to look at Yahoo data off and on over the years, and I've had to program routines specifically to (a) Highlight, and (b) skip past 'dodgy' data in it - highs that are lower than open or close, lows that are above the O or C, I wouldn't use it for anything involving money frankly, there are enough obstacles to making a consistent profit without having to wonder if the price information is a fairy story.

Thanks for the extra info.

 

[frugi]

Hmm. Daily candles have long tails off the consolidation lows. Could there be a nest of sly accumulating bulls down there between 430 and 465 and will they push it up with great fury to the inverse H&S target and further?

Or will the inv H&S fail and the gap prove irresistible with a pause at 400 on the way to 340-350?

FWIW (nothing) I favour the upside by a small margin.

Either way it's tempting to trade a Ross Hook and subsequent pullback bar on the 20 min, following a breakout of the head or neckline. Stop could be just above or below the pullback bar that signals entry and trailed after each bar close after an initial scale out.

I know it's summer but we're due a daily trend of a few days soon, surely? And what works on a 4 min should work on 20 min, roight. I will not hold overnight. I will not hold overnight. I will not ...

Edit: Fantasy screenshot of a nice RH trade added. If the setup occurs out of t2w hours I will trade it tomorrow, see what happens and report back (1 contract only. D'oh! Make that 3 or I can't scale out Therefore I can't take the trade unless the stop < a few points. Probably for the best.

 

[Minder]

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=824504

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc. <C.N> on Monday said computer tapes containing account and payment history data, including Social Security numbers, on 3.9 million customers were lost by United Parcel Service Inc. <UPS.N>

 

[roguetrader]

Total market volume declined by 9% on both markets today, internals finished close to neutral. If the Nasdaq and the SOX decide to correct sideways from here, that will be extremely bullish for the markets.

TXN to give its mid-quarter update Tuesday, while INTC gives it's forcast on Thursday.

 

[JillyB]

Morning Everyone,

Well, what a non-event yesterday was. Very boring to watch.

Managed a couple of scalps and left it for the day. I see the level of support at 10450 - 10460 is holding up quite well and even though the index traded below it for most of the morning, it still managed to finish on the up side - even if by only 7 points!

I still believe the bulls are waiting quitely to push this further upward and yesterday did nothing to dispell that thought. Let's see what today will bring - a little more volatility, I hope.

 

[kriesau]

Morning Everyone,

Well, what a non-event yesterday was. Very boring to watch.

Managed a couple of scalps and left it for the day. I see the level of support at 10450 - 10460 is holding up quite well and even though the index traded below it for most of the morning, it still managed to finish on the up side - even if by only 7 points!

I still believe the bulls are waiting quitely to push this further upward and yesterday did nothing to dispell that thought. Let's see what today will bring - a little more volatility, I hope.

I think that you might be right about Bulls lurking in the shadows. All US futures trading up early this morning. Closed all my Friday US shorts and banked the points. Nikkei still looking good though. An intraday long over 10500 just might be interesting.

Oil at $54.45 this morning.

Another no news day apart from April Consumer Credit figures due out at 15.00. Markets may be taking some comfort from Greenspans remarks last night about low interest rates being a worldwide phenomenon - of course low US Treasury yields have nothing to do with the large foreign purchases that have been made by overseas Asian banks recycling their dollars from the massive US trade deficit !

 

[karmit]

to me it seemed that Greenspans comments were quite worrying.... last time the phenomenon was a "conundrum".. this time "it cannot be explained"... also, if he thinks that low interest rates are normal, means that in his view, the rates are still "low"... and thus might need further increasing..

also a warning for hedge funds managers was included

lets see how the market reacts to it.. if at all...

I do believe that the market does not really depend upon things like oil, Greenspan etc etc... but lets see!

-karmit

 

[kriesau]

to me it seemed that Greenspans comments were quite worrying.... last time the phenomenon was a "conundrum".. this time "it cannot be explained"... also, if he thinks that low interest rates are normal, means that in his view, the rates are still "low"... and thus might need further increasing..

also a warning for hedge funds managers was included

lets see how the market reacts to it.. if at all...

I do believe that the market does not really depend upon things like oil, Greenspan etc etc... but lets see!

-karmit

I agree - it seems to me that Greenspans chickens are threatening to come home to roost after his great gamble of lowering interest rates down to 1%, to stave off recession after the dotcom crash. Lets not forget that the Dow dropped 40%, the SPX 50% & the NDX 80% between Q1 2000 and Q1 2003.

This recovery was based upon a combination of unprecedented low interest rates, Bushs tax cuts and a war rally, which engineered an asset based consumer boom which has seen markets recover by 50% over the last 2 years. The consequences of these policies are a housing bubble plus huge trade and budget deficits. This is now producing inflationary pressures coupled with a manufacturing slow down as artificially stimulated consumer demand sucks in more cheap Asian imports. The triple effect of the housing bubble, trade and budget deficits is unsustainable and can only be brought under some semblance of control by raising interest rates to choke off consumer demand and by government spending cuts.

At some point the Fed is going to have to bite the bullet on this and the markets will fall. Whether Greenspan can keep his balls in the air long enough to delay the day of reckoning from occuring on his watch his the big question. Hints of a moratorium in interest rate hikes is just one of the tactics being used to keep markets buoyant as is the shrugging of shoulders when asked why Treasury yields remain so low.

Obviously Greenspan would rather depart on a high note with his reputation in tact and leave the fall out to his successor to deal with and I'm sure that is one of the reasons why so much manipulation is going on at the moment. The Fed Plunge Protection Team still seems to be active but their ability to try and control market forces is declining all of the time.

It's a very uncertain world at the moment !

 

[JillyB]

CMC Dow index pre-open up 18 - 20 points on last nights close.

Seems to be consolidating around 10485 - 87. Is there any pre-open news due out today?

Futures also up 18 points since last night.

 

[roguetrader]

Is there any pre-open news due out today?

Nothing significant

 

[FetteredChinos]

this market is crazy lol...

back up to 10,560-600 then down again perhaps?

 

[SOCRATES]

This market is not crazy, it is the way it is, refer to my post 4528, early warning, subtle nudge.
(Now one can expect a lot of abuse for this.)

 

[FetteredChinos]

thanks, doctor.

 

[SOCRATES]

OK, just bear in mind that it is a bull market and not a bear market.

 

[SOCRATES]

Or rather just bull in mind that it is a bull market and not a bear market.

 

[Minder]

OK, just bear in mind that it is a bull market and not a bear market.

So you expect the dow to close the week higher than the open, Socs ?

 

[Bluewave]

Socs, while you're trying to teach us plebs something about the markets, I'd like to teach you about using the "Edit/Delete Message" button.......

 

[Matt321]

I wonder if these sudden fake twists and moves are to do with end of quarter Month and expiration month

 

[LION63]

god (Greenspan) spoke about long bond yields yesterday and it seems that they will be with us for a while longer, this will continue to support equities. It is likely that the yields are headed even lower.