Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[counter_violent]

Hmmm 32 was short lived ......skip poncing about stage ....straight in to Rock n Roll .......not quite the same without a warm up act lol

 

[FetteredChinos]

mechanical strat will trigger a long at 10713.

looks like it might trigger it today.....

 

[User]

I didnt mean this week..... We should see it this year though

 

[FetteredChinos]

right, here we go. Hammer time.

1st stochs cross long @ 10740

also looks like a 1-2-3 bottom forming.. 10745 crucial price..

 

[FetteredChinos]

1-2-3 bottom formed.. 10745 broken.

now how much upside will we get....

 

[FetteredChinos]

sorry User, looks like Greasepan had his hearing aid switched-off during our call earlier..

 

[FetteredChinos]

not that im usually bother by other factors, but Crude has been going bananas today.. +110 according to IG.

up from earlier, and yet the Dow still climbs...

looks like the MM's are taking it higher in order to bring it crashing down..

 

[frugi]

Close the gap and down now?

 

[FetteredChinos]

make that +130...

 

[FetteredChinos]

nah frugs, i have it following through up into early tmr (overnight).

then having changed its underwear, it is going down into friday.

who fancies a 300 point sell off?

 

[User]

Never mind. We'll see. I still believe we will get a shocker of decline soon. January was nothing. Could test your 10800 now.

 

[FetteredChinos]

im up for a fake break above 10800 myself...

 

[User]

looks like the MM's are taking it higher in order to bring it crashing down..

You've hit the nail on the head. Couldn't agree with you more!!!

Spot on. If we see new highs I think many will be deceived.

 

[FetteredChinos]

i think Chartman would go long here on a bounce off the 100EMA and the magic 64 ??

 

[User]

Ending the day at the lows today would be highly bearish as the market would have not even attempted its resistance at 10800.

 

[FetteredChinos]

erm isnt closing at lows generally bullish for the next day? and closing at highs bearish for the next day?

i did some testing on the Dow and FTSE.. i think there is a 70% chance of a 20pt retrace the following day on the Dow after closing in the extreme 20% of the range..where it goes from there is the question lol..

FC

edit:- had a thought. think the chances of a retrace were higher than 70% actually.


you see, this is what happens when you have 200 backtest spreadsheets. you lose track.

 

[frugi]

Fettucine the significance of a high or low close often, if not always, depends on the volume and previous bar patterns.

e.g Is a close on the high professional buying or have they sold into strength ready to take it down?
A short up bar on high volume is often the latter, for instance (if it was real buying why is the bar short?), as is the traditional long up bar on very high (climactic) volume that shows transfer of stock from weak to strong hands as the weaks panic. All to be taken in context of previous bars (and, indeed often the next few bars to confirm a negate an earlier signal of strength or weakness).

The rejection bar at 15:50 (5 min) that almost closed the gap was a clear sign of background weakness especially as it followed a low volume short up bar that showed little demand (with hindsight. LOL) which is why I suspected a down move following gap fill.

Remember I'm still pretty d'uh about P&V so take the above with a cruet of Maldon. But I am beginning to believe the clues are always there if you look hard enough.

 

[User]

Yes good point frugi.

 

[FetteredChinos]

interesting post Frugs. i agree that volume and previous action have to be taken into account, but i was making a generalisation..

on todays action. could be a longer term 1-2-3 bottom forming..
10775 being the "2" point...


break below 10,725 would of course negate this..

 

[User]

10725 would no doubt have us testing 10700.

Could see a little test of 10750 again. Thats the way the 5min candles are shaping up.