Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[FetteredChinos]

FWIW, the action i have in mind for next week is...

possibility of gap down slightly on the Dow tuesday.

retrace to approx 10760.. that will be my long entry. target from there is 10,830 - 10850 (natch) probably hit early on wednesday.

and from then on, i think we have a whopper of a move down over thursday and friday (possibility of a pullback late on friday, but shouldnt amount to much)


these are only preliminary calls, and of course can change nearer the time. but it the patterns hold fairly substantially, that is what it is going to do

FC

 

[User]

A couple of articles that you may want to look at:

http://www.zealllc.com/2005/nofear2.htm

http://www.zealllc.com/2005/useuro.htm

Some decent points in both articles.

 

[twiggytwo]

my indicators show dow to fall to a consolidation range of 103 points 10788 to 10685 i think the week will close at 10736 this is not trading advice just my view

 

[User]

Well for this week some say we will hit new highs, some say we have done the double top and its down from here and some say we will hit new highs and then go lower.

We don't know what will happen. However I think we could well hit new highs for the year, this may be brief and then down to new lows for the year. The VIX and some other indicators are suggesting downward action from here. The breach of the recent upward trendline also suggests lower action.

Maybe Tuesday-Wednesday gains and then Thursday-Friday losses. Who knows? Should be interesting though!

"Ever wonder what the smart money is doing? Walter Hertler, a technical analyst, thinks he has it figured out, and many stock market investors won't like the news.
Mr. Hertler consulted the Smart Money Indicator, a measure sometimes used to try to distinguish the activity of the wiliest professional investors from that of the less astute and less rational public. That barometer has sent one of its strongest sell signals in years, said Mr. Hertler, publisher of Hertler Market Signal Updates.
"The current sell signal appears to me to be comparable to the one that preceded the 2000 tops in the various stock indexes," he said. Followers of the index would have exited the market in early 2000, when the indicator peaked well below its old high as the market rallied to record levels. The signal came just in time to avoid the bursting of the Internet bubble."

Interesting.......

Lets see what happens.

My personal feeling is that we have a chance for new highs although the downward move which in my opinion is round the corner would be more dramtic then the January correction.
New highs should be minor and not much higher then where we are now. Some believe Thursday's action was enough to say downward action is now going to be seen. On the other hand some believe many large traders have stop losses around 10900 and trigering those levels should send us rallying higher.

Good luck.

 

[pttrader]

2004 has not been a bad year for the Indices but where do we go in 2005?

Up then down. Then up and down. Then down then up! Thats why we gotta use resistance/support. All this up and down!

pt

 

[User]

How come dow futures are down nearly 40?

 

[FetteredChinos]

because i told them to retrace to 10,760.

all going according to plan..


nah, just pausing for breath after fridays move up.. i fancy another poke up at 10,800 ce soir..

 

[User]

No you had your attempt on Friday so let it test 10700 today yeh? Call them and tell them plz....

 

[FetteredChinos]

FC :err, hello? is that Alan? can you announce a surprise interest-rate hike, User fancies covering his shorts

AG: sure thing FC, anything for you.. let me just talk the market up a bit first....

 

[User]

thnx mate

 

[FetteredChinos]

a pleasure.. always like to help people out...

looks like we could well see 10700 pre-market.

hope not!

FC

 

[counter_violent]

Possible bounce off 32 then some poncing about b 4 we really get down to the Rock an Roll

Once again check daily chart for that three peak divergence on macd etc

 

[FetteredChinos]

i still fancy another poke at 10,800 and just above.. then kaboom later in the week...

exits for my long are 10,820 and 10690 atm. not the greatest risk reward. but hey. confidence in the pattern is key..

stop is more there for disaster protection than anything else..

 

[FetteredChinos]

c0ck-locked, ready to rock..

looks like we are longing from the 1st stochs cross today chaps.. buying into such weakness should be ok...

famous last words...



(+80 from 4 last week. looking for -300 from 4 this week )

FC

 

[peterpr]

Here's a couple of charts with the indicators I follow on FTSE. They say the technical situation here is less obvious.

The only reasonable (> 90%) Regression channel I can find on the DOW - pertinent to current state is only from the start of the current run up from 24th Jan. It's kissing the lower boundary right now with another 20+ points to reach to its 50PMA. Question is: How secure is the channel? - Not very IMHO

DiNapoli Stochastic says more immediate downside (daily close basis that is); RSI neutral; MACD looks poised to turn down - no signal yet- not quite anyway.

Similar picture on the 90 minute chart - although already testing the 50PMA.

Frankly I'm looking for a serious run down - say minimum to between the the 50 DMA (10660) and the red support (10620) on a one week view. Futures currently say more immediate downside

 

[peterpr]

c0ck-locked, ready to rock..
looks like we are longing from the 1st stochs cross today chaps.. buying into such weakness should be ok...

famous last words...
FC

FLW's indeed. Should be able to scalp a few points if your nippy about it I guess. Think I'll just cheer from ther sidelines though.

Best of luck.

 

[User]

We're down at the moment but the close action counts for me. Lets see. Peterpr Stochs turning on your daily chart! Could well have a down week! Otherwise we have a slight chance of brief highs but overall we're heading down soon.

 

[FetteredChinos]

We're down at the moment but the close action counts for me. Lets see. Stochs turning on your daily chart! Could well have a down week! Otherwise we have a slight chance of brief highs but overall we're heading down soon.

sitting on that fence again?

 

[User]

No chance I'm short with a good stake! Currently gaining but I want 10350 then 9750 area. Might not happen today

 

[FetteredChinos]

ooo i dunno. i see 9750 this week

seriously though.. weekly range is approx 220pts at the moment..

this week we are "due" a big trend down, so we could see a 300pt drop this week, then a bit of follow through early next..

might hit 10,400 next week.

who knows..

lets not get ahead of ourselves..

FC