Mmm, where will it top out? I'm laughing to myself as i type this, not because of your question, but because i'm thinking NO...don't predict that one RUDEBOY! But....here goes anyway....550....ish, user. Any offers? At 550 i'll be selling 3000 contracts? RB!
User
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I was thinking 10500 at the start of this week but then that thought went.....
The reason I was thinking that was as all eyes are on the 10365-400 circa it'll probably run through it...(too blatent).Then I thought next stop?.....hmmmm. I didnt post it though as the market still needed to break the range and well its done that today....
At this moment in time I still feel skeptical though as I would like to wait and see what tomorrow brings as a sizeable decline could invalidate the breakout set-up and that would be highly bearish......
The stat that this week gains 90% of the time is pretty unheard off but the saying 'sell in May is very common to all....could this week be a trap on a weekly chart timeframe......could it be that investors think 'sell in May' hahahaha....'the markets nice and bullish' and then before you know it the trap suceeds and bang 10,000 in no time.........thats just thoughts though.....and I'll stop right their....
My analysis is that we've finally broken out of this range.....its pretty blatent.....but as it is so 'blatent' I will wait and see what tomorrow brings for this market....
Hardluck to the traders that were short and well done if you were long....
Does Tom now believe all time highs for the Dow.......
Racer
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Look at Dow chart going back to 1999.. yes I use that sort of time frame a lot to do swing trades.
Draw line at 10400 level.. and also look at recent price range.. major resistance at this level, not saying it won't go up of course but there is a big headwind here
Draw line at 10400 level.. and also look at recent price range.. major resistance at this level, not saying it won't go up of course but there is a big headwind here
Personally i wouldnt class todays action as false( but who knows ). I was thinking more along the lines of what looked nice on a chart. Lets face it its broke out, but has it got the momentum to carry on much further? I'm inclined to say a cautionary yes, but, not much more. A slight pullback before further gains? Tighter stops for long positions? Whatever you decide the game plan is always changing...its a bugger?
It is pretty frightening today what happened if your in the bear camp but after the fiasco last night with the feds last minute turn about this all just smells of more market manipulation.Of course we could quite easily head up from here,theres no guarantees but one thing it has done is keep everyone guessing and rinsed out quite a lot of shorts.
roguetrader
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Chalk another one up for the bulls today, very strong move as shown by the internals.
Both SPX and INDU moved firmly above the down trendlines in place since early March. SPX also moved back above the up trendline from Aug '04. INDU also managed a close above the 200 day sma, just. The one missing component, volume. Whilst volume did increase today it lacked the conviction one would expect form a market on the way up especially when you consider that GM and F did over 100 million shares between them.
Still a move like that has to be respected for now. Will be interesting to see wht the rest of the week brings.
Both SPX and INDU moved firmly above the down trendlines in place since early March. SPX also moved back above the up trendline from Aug '04. INDU also managed a close above the 200 day sma, just. The one missing component, volume. Whilst volume did increase today it lacked the conviction one would expect form a market on the way up especially when you consider that GM and F did over 100 million shares between them.
Still a move like that has to be respected for now. Will be interesting to see wht the rest of the week brings.
It is easy to tell from the tone of most of the recent posts that the majority here are bearish (nothing wrong there) and with good justification but therein lies the problem. Contrarians tend to make a lot of money by going against the crowd as the masses tend to lack much conviction. Sometimes we must stand back and ask why we feel the markets should trend in a particular direction at any given time, the markets may well be in a downtrend but there will be sharp rises here and there along the way. The more astute will sometimes stand aside and keep their powder dry; as the saying goes, "He who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day." Another saying is that - "Sometimes discretion is the better part of valour."
PS.
No lectures intended I am just trying to share a thought.
PS.
No lectures intended I am just trying to share a thought.
SOCRATES
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Yes, Lion, but with respect, if you don't mind the Dow has been going up , not down. Therefore it is not correct to go short in a long market. So there is a lot wrong with it really, you must admit. I agree with what you say about contrarians but not in the context of what is developing in actuality.The more astute do not try to force, they just accept what is presented and take advantage of a move by trading in harmony with it and not against it, and always with proper care, using appropriate entry points and protecting the position by using stops whether mental or physical., and as tight as possible to make them effective, and by ensuring to get in on the move early, in order to maximise a strong holding, and not the opposite.
SOCRATES
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Yes Roguetrader you are correct. The volume did increase but the reason it did not display the conviction expected of such a move is that the volume was subject to price progression and not the other way round as is normally the case.roguetrader said:
Socrates,
You are right that the DOW has been in an uptrend for the last 18 months or so but people use different time frames and that is where the difference occurs. For those using 6 month charts all they can see is steady declines.
Nevertheless, we are in agreement that we often bring about our own demise.
You are right that the DOW has been in an uptrend for the last 18 months or so but people use different time frames and that is where the difference occurs. For those using 6 month charts all they can see is steady declines.
Nevertheless, we are in agreement that we often bring about our own demise.
Bigbusiness
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SOCRATES said:
Sorry Socrates. I make my own decisions and the last thing I am going to do is look here and have someone else influence my decisions. I have tried that before and failed. Now, I stick to what I know works and make money instead of losing it. Think it is time I submerged and got on with it.
Kind regards.
BB
FetteredChinos
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hmm. just kept going last night, didnt it!!
still short..looking for a descending finish to the week. as posted earlier 10,400 is resistance..and the pattern is pointing to a decline..
jobs data today/tmr?
FC
still short..looking for a descending finish to the week. as posted earlier 10,400 is resistance..and the pattern is pointing to a decline..
jobs data today/tmr?
FC
FetteredChinos
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lol indeed. didnt you mention something about a turn on the 9th?
this is the problem when using fib counts.. you end up with so many turns!!
did some excel testing on the FTSE btw.. counting the period between highs and lows..
whilst the points could be construed as fibs +/- a couple either side, it doesnt seem to be that great.
might try some further testing though.
spooky call tho mofo lol!
this is the problem when using fib counts.. you end up with so many turns!!
did some excel testing on the FTSE btw.. counting the period between highs and lows..
whilst the points could be construed as fibs +/- a couple either side, it doesnt seem to be that great.
might try some further testing though.
spooky call tho mofo lol!
FetteredChinos
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all based on fib counts and projections lol.
