Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[ChowClown]

Still long cable as per your strat and a useful 80+ pip discretionary on cable (short) yesterday.

..added more short (DOW), in readiness for the 2nd half....seems to be wading through treacle north atm....and i'm putting faith in the 6-day cycle (for now ).

 

[FetteredChinos]

its easy this game isnt it??


only when cycles work though lol..

am +99 on the Dow this week before today/last nights short at 10,825...

 

[ChowClown]

wd m8 - it's always better on the fairways after a decent week

 

[FetteredChinos]

will we hit 10755 today?

would be happy if we did....

 

[User]

FC it definately has the potential to go there today! I've loaded more shorts now. I'm back in heavy. Feeling good about this set-up.

We see how it shapes up.

 

[User]

FC we hit it!

Ending at the lowest point of the day is even better! Great Stuff. I'll update later.

 

[frugi]

YM low 10755 on the nose. Chinos and User, you rock

 

[User]

a breach of 10820 should see us playing with the 10800. A break of this area will also definitely break the trend line and should lead to a decent decline.

So we got the breach of the trend line and a decent decline too. The market needs more of a down move but a move above 10800 would stand as a reaction rally for today’s move. A move towards 10700 is likely but it could also be possible for consolidation to occur before another large move is seen.

Friday’s action: Another downward continuation is likely. A breach of 10735 should see us playing with 10700 otherwise a move towards 10770 could see us approaching 10800.

Another big move is needed. A breach of 10700 would see us travelling towards 10630.

Frugi I reckon we could see more selling however today’s move wouldn't stand as much if confirmation wasn't given. There are a few things we can take from today’s action. We ended at the lows. Oh and the NASDAQ didn’t seem too well.

Good luck. Please see attachment below...

 

[FetteredChinos]

make that +169 for the week on basic method, + a shed load on this 1st stochs cross gubbins...



i feel i have let you down though chaps, i was 0.74 pts out on the close today lol...



nice analysis user. those numbers tie in with what i am expecting..

i see an early dip to the 10730 region, possibly even squeezing to 10,710-10,700.

i will be going long at the first and adding at the second..

after yesterdays sell day, we should have a Buy Day (early dip).

fridays arent all that reliable because of the low-ish volumes..

we'll see though..

good trading all.

FC


edit:- just done a tally of this 1st stochs cross method combined with cycles..

over the last 3 days we have had +16,+8 and now +31 for a total of +55


3 wins from 3.. if this keeps up, i may have to research this idea a bit more.. only problem is that backtesting stochs crosses in excel is a right pain in the 'arris.

 

[ChowClown]

...i read somewhere that long weekends tend to help rally the market and Tom H's fib time analysis is looking for a top 22nd Feb www.tradertom.co.uk

 

[peterpr]

i feel i have let you down though chaps, i was 0.74 pts out on the close today lol...

after yesterdays sell day, we should have a Buy Day (early dip).

Quite am impressive call that fc - the 755 I mean - jammy sod.

Today is also an options expiry - usually an up day. I recall reading somewhere this week (can't remember where) that a close around 10700 would be optimal for the writers. On that basis there's no need for them to strive for a major rally with current indications for an opening of 10770 +

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup guys, and i entirely agree...

been looking at the weekly candles. my what a crud week this one has been.

anyway. it looks like this week has been a "sell week".. ie kept near last week's high. narrow range etc.

therefore i would expect next week to be a "short sell week". early high followed by sharp decline.. though the decline might be limited to about 200pts which is roughly the average weekly range at the moment...

10755 wasnt that jammy really.. was based on a standard retracement level from the 10850-odd high the day before.

was nice for it to hit it at the close though.. always makes you look good lol

FC

 

[peterpr]

10755 wasnt that jammy really.. was based on a standard retracement level from the 10850-odd high the day before.
FC

I did try to put a winky smilie after that remark - but for some reason, occasionally, the site just doesn't register them

Succeeded this time though

 

[FetteredChinos]

ha..its ok. i was only teasing..

im actually quite surprised the target was hit

futures up at 10770 now though.. not sure how we are gonna get to 10,730 early on..

have we got us data aujourd'hui?

 

[ChowClown]

..PPI (13:30gmt)

 

[FetteredChinos]

aha, just checked that.. think the michigan is at 14.45??

i reckon we will get ****ty PPI to get us the drop, then then confidence number will bring us up..

am only looking for approx 40 points from 10730... ie a bounce to 10770 region will do me for the day...

Cable is all over the place at the moment..

 

[ChowClown]

Hrly chart doodling

...daily chart recently overbought but trend remains bullish for now, although on-balance-volume flirting below it's 30 day MA.

 

[User]

CC could you post a daily chart - 1 day with stochs. Thanks

 

[User]

Wow great data!

 

[FetteredChinos]

ARF ARF...


down she goes.. nearly hit 10730...