Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[User]

10800 seems likely to pop which could lead to a sharp decline. Short at 10800.

 

[FetteredChinos]

im thinking its base building personally......

 

[User]

Sorry not short yet. For some reason my trade didnt go through....

 

[ChowClown]

im thinking its base building personally......

Here's hoping the short term 'cycle pressure' is tough to bust at times...and now look, the hrly innards are spilling over short - bugger.

 

[frugi]

Nasty descending triangle too. It'll probably break up to confuse everyone.
Volume totally dried up - something must happen soon.

 

[jonnyy40]

Yes,this is make or break here or roundabouts.

 

[User]

Now my short has been entered! 10804.

Crucial levels. Lets see what happens...

 

[FetteredChinos]

now i hate to say i told you so....

but...

that long from 10780 earlier is looking tasty

 

[FetteredChinos]

it is looking like such a banker short overnight that i think i will go short at the close with 100pt stops...

tmr is a bradley turn date..

have looked overbought on the dailys for ages..

looks like an inverse 5 week as per genesis (ie short bias into friday)


probably hit 17000 now in the next week lol....

ps, i left college early tonight...falling asleep twice in 90 mins is not a good sign. just ask Sol Campbell...

FC

 

[ChowClown]

...i think today is the bradley turn m8....and my daily chart still reeks of Bull, but a low risk short overnight is tempting from here, as the hrlies look ripe and the double top now in with yesterday's high.....turned out nice again today though din't it.

 

[FetteredChinos]

of course

still not closed though..

fc

 

[ChowClown]

...i was intending to exit automatically, i didn't think i'd be around - come 8pm found myself staring at the DT forming with yesterday's high and bagged the points rapido.

 

[User]

I think I might add another short. 10850 looks like resistance area.

 

[User]

The Dow tested the 10800 level through out the day this was also the trend line area of this upward move that we've seen for the past three weeks. 10850 is also giving this market resistance. Comments from some other members are saying that we may see a top within a few days and some say new highs some say double top and then back to the lows of 2005. The VIX closed down again and well a down move should be seen pretty soon.

Thursdays action: A test of 10860 should lead us to 10900 while a breach of 10820 should see us playing with the 10800. A break of this area will also definately break the trend line and should lead to a decent decline. I will be looking to add shorts.

Good Luck.

FC and CC your trades worked out well. Nice one.

 

[FetteredChinos]

looking nicely like a 5 pattern forming...

taken a short at 10,825 looking for a drop to 10755 today....


then i will also look at the "1st Stochs" entry..

taking the trades from the last 2 days we have...

+16 from yesterday, +8 from the day before..

not bad considering volatility has been dreadful recently...


not sure whether yesterday was in fact a buy day, or a sell day..

the price was kept near tuesdays high...indicating a "sell day".

either way i would expect a bearish day today (thursday)...

will take the 1st cross today, as it seems to be working on the sample of 2 trades lol..

fc

 

[roguetrader]

Do the longer term players think that option open interest plays a significant part in index movement during option expiry week. For example, if one assumes that institutions are the biggest sellers of options, looking at the open interest coming into this week suggested to me that the OEX would not be far from 570 by weeks end as this seems to be the spot where the majority of puts and calls on the OEX will expire worthless. Interested in anyones thoughts.

 

[User]

roguetrader not too sure but interesting question.

FC do you see the market reversing at 10755 level? or is that just the point where you'll be happy?

 

[FetteredChinos]

user.. nah.. that is just my 1st target to take profits..

longer term on the dailys/weeklys i think we are close to a big move, but my holding period is usually only a couple of days..

a significant move above 10850-10900 will negate the pattern for the week, so i will probably exit on a breach of 10900. (not a spike though)

FC

 

[ChowClown]

Today's Gann Support/Resistance:

Resistance: 10887 10939 10992
Support: 10783 10731 10679

Futs holding up so far, but several reports out 13:30gmt plus Philly Fed at 17:00gmt.

 

[FetteredChinos]

Simon, are you able to divulge how you came up with those Gann levels?

are they based on the 45 degree stuff? or do they include a square of nine portion?

my eyes went funny when reading all his stuff..