Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[kriesau]

Closed out my 3 shorts to break even as the market rallied in the last 15 minutes.
I still think this is going below 9900 but it'll have to wait until next week.
Huge volume in the last hour.

 

[User]

Huge volume in the last hour.

Last 10 mins really started climbing back a bit......

10065 to 10150 in a little over 30 minutes

Interesting....

 

[Racer]

Oh look at that, they are doing an inverse H&S at close, c'mon suckers.....

 

[kriesau]

Oh look at that, they are doing an inverse H&S at close, c'mon suckers.....

H & S !! What's that ?
Big volume in the last hour - I smell Fed intervention !

 

[User]

Oh look at that, they are doing an inverse H&S at close, c'mon suckers.....

Call me a sucker if you want but I must say that the last 30mins of todays session definately suggests that next week will be interesting!

10400 was good support but I feel 10000 is the last straw for the bullish case and I don't think they will be giving it up that quickly.

Some Bull:arrowu: :arrowd:Bear fighting going on IMHO.

Great for intraday moves...

 

[Racer]

Head and shoulders

This is fishy again! Plunge team out and about?

S&P and Nas... failed those lines I posted earlier, firmly in downtrend

 

[User]

H & S !! What's that ?

Head and shoulders pattern

 

[Racer]

This seems so fishy to me, think they are very worried about the Elliot wave theory.. so they are trying to hold it over 10K
Cos if it falls then the market is on a road to a very long way down from here.. and I am not talking 9700!

 

[roguetrader]

Very nice tradable day in the end, bounce at the end was a bit of a bonus.

 

[kriesau]

May Futures now at 10175 - 10181 - unreal !

 

[counter_violent]

This seems so fishy to me, think they are very worried about the Elliot wave theory.. so they are trying to hold it over 10K
Cos if it falls then the market is on a road to a very long way down from here.. and I am not talking 9700!

I'm not talking 9700 either .....but that has to be the first target :arrowd:

 

[tradesmart]

This is fishy again! Plunge team out and about?

Racer - I agree, maybe the Plunge Prevention Team are sending a signal to the market....?!

Huge volatility assured.....fortunately I got a trailing stop in on my short from 210 at 100 - futs now 10190......!

 

[User]

This seems so fishy to me, think they are very worried about the Elliot wave theory.. so they are trying to hold it over 10K

Maybe

Cos if it falls then the market is on a road to a very long way down from here.. and I am not talking 9700!

Couldn't agree more....9700 is no real target......my targets are something like 7286 the lows made on 09/10/02

2005 intial target is the 2004 lows for now though.....as mentioned at the start of this thread

This is really volatile stuff the cash market is now sitting at 10185. Would this be a great oportunity for shorting at these levels or are we actually moving higher?

10200 intial upside target

10100 intial downside target, as it didnt manage it today

 

[roguetrader]

This is really volatile stuff the cash market is now sitting at 10185. Would this be a great oportunity for shorting at these levels or are we actually moving higher?

Wouldn't jump short just yet, I wouldn't be surprised if last 30 mins was short covering, ie somebody doesn't want to be short on Monday

 

[Racer]

Yes but they can't hold up the rest of the world.
Some FTSE shares I normally go long and trade a lot... AV was tempted a lot lately, but I haven't bought. Last time I went long I sold at 640.
Insurers are going down... look at the charts
PRU, LGEN as well
Dax was not as strong as it should have been.. with a huge rise on the Nas that should have flown but it didn't and kept falling back, the FTSE didn't jump, both of those fell back.

Greenspan and his comments yesterday, read them again.

 

[roguetrader]

Greenspan and his comments yesterday, read them again.

Yes I listened to his testimony, wasn't exactly encouraging for the US economy.

 

[User]

Neverthless good volatility and great trading oportunities....

But I'm not in this market yet. Long term I think you all know that I have a mega bearish attitude on these markets but I am not sure where we are heading in relation to the short term activity. 10000 is a key level for now with intial resistance at 10200.

I've posted a chart for the newbies which shows todays moves on a 15min chart....

Hope it helps.

Have a nice weekend, I certainly had a great week...

 

[Racer]

GM the biggerst gainer.. ROFL

 

[Racer]

A Secular Bear Market


Recent Market Commentary:
4/21/05 A Secular Bear Market
4/14/05 "And Then, Alas, it's Too Late"
4/7/05 Is Anybody Listening?
3/31/05 Market in Late-Cycle Topping Process
3/24/05 Monetary Tightening Negative for Stocks
3/17/05 Structural Imbalances Coming to the Fore
3/10/05 Employment Numbers Without the Spin
3/3/05 The Fed's Dilemma
2/24/05 The Case For a Market Top
2/17/05 What Keeps Greenspan Up at Night

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Despite today’s strong rally it is likely that the 29-month cyclical bull market peaked at 1229 (S&P 500) on March 7. Since that time the index dropped 7.6% and gained back 2% today. At the close it still was at about the same level as last November 4, just two days after the U.S. presidential election. The recent March 7 top was still a whopping 21% below the all-time high of 1553 in March 2000, confirming our belief that we are currently in a secular bear market. Rallies in bear markets develop from oversold conditions and are often quite explosive, but generally peter out well below previous highs.

The rest of this on:-
http://www.comstockfunds.com

 

[Racer]

http://www.safehaven.com/pdf/010205gayer.pdf

Elliott waves for those who are interested