Where is the Dow and Mothers heading in 2006?

[tradesmart]

Last Night:-

a speculative triangle forming..

More volatility in the developing range to come

Yes....!

A 75 point tank in 60 mins to start the day from the 10.00hrsET news (another ‘magic moment’..!) courtesy of the market’s bêtes noir – rising bond yields and oil prices; but the fall arrested by the lower triangle support line..

Just a guess yesterday, but generally validated by the index today….

Good trading signals – the opening short from yesterday’s 11395 pivot, confirmed by ND RSI, crossover over of the 9/16sma’s… covered/go long, at the 11330 pivot, confirmed by PD RSI, crossover over of the 9/16sma’s; and a nice bounce to the 11365 pivot at the 61.8% fib retracement level…and reverse to 320ish support for an initially weak evening performance, but still managing a 40+ point rise from the 305 low..

I suspect that the trading range will tighten within the triangle confines over the next few sessions leading up to the FED meeting on the 28th – the 100ish height of the triangle hints at a similar size move from the breakpoint, as and when it comes…

 

[tradesmart]

Volatile and still testing the triangle boundaries as support and resistance - some good tradable moves with over 150 points on the table today….

‘Winding up’ towards the sharp end for a potentially explosive breakout…..

Wait for it…….











BANG….!!!!!

 

[mombasa]

Yes TS, that's all very well. I went short at triangle top, long at triangle bottom.

Only prob was that I didn't have the confidence today to hold for more than a few points

Sigh.

 

[tradesmart]

I didn't have the confidence today to hold for more than a few points

No one ever went skint making a profit Mom , but try watching what the 9/16sma's are doing in different timeframes; you might find that you're staying in for longer in the right direction..

A 'U' shaped day today, with a bearish break of the formerly supportive rising lower triangle trendline, but 11295 holding again for a 61.8% fib bounce back to 11340.....

Basically another inside day, but more movement is anticipated in the second part of tomorrow's session....

 

[tradesmart]

23/03/06:-

I suspect that the trading range will tighten within the triangle confines over the next few sessions leading up to the FED meeting on the 28th – the 100ish height of the triangle hints at a similar size move from the breakpoint, as and when it comes…

Not far out….

The triangle consolidation painstakingly created over 6 sessions was bound to give way with a “bang” and so it was; the price not even bothering to perform the traditional FED ‘whipsaw’ search for direction – just a falling knife…!

The 100 target from the breakpoint is nearly hit, and very likely more to come; but the first attempt at a bounce/consolidation, should yield more clues to the longer term outcome…

 

[mombasa]

TS, very little chance to get in after the statement and subsequent break. I was short at 11,268 but chickend out. Now short from 11,191 and holding.

50% fib retracement almost hit so what next? 200 point correction from highs almost there so maybe onward and upwards.

I'm biased towards the bears. Consolidation and down I hope.

 

[frugi]

Dunno if there's 'owt in this but the last 2 major retracements have been c230 points apiece. If the next one is as well we may stop at 11100. 11080 is also a 618 / 382 from two lower points. So, just a zone to watch for a reversal, perhaps. :?:

 

[tradesmart]

Dunno if there's 'owt in this

Could well be Fruges – I note that a trendline rising from the two prior lows would confirm the target

A good trading day today, provided that you didn’t believe that the bearish close yesterday meant that it was all over for the bulls..!

A ‘higher low’ early on gave a good long entry point provided that you suspected that the index would recover at least 50/61.8% of yesterday’s losses…..

It actually looked like it was going to break north through the resistance of the former support level at 11295 in the last hour, but it was just homing in on the pivot at 11305 (kindly generated by SierraCharts..) – a 3-peak negative divergent RSI top confirming the ‘top’ - Chartman's lessons live on....! (thank you..!!)

I note that the Naz has made a significant break above it’s 3 month resistance today, so unless this is a fake-out breakout, it could be the bullish way of things to come..

 

[Jerry Olson]

Could well be Fruges – I note that a trendline rising from the two prior lows would confirm the target

A good trading day today, provided that you didn’t believe that the bearish close yesterday meant that it was all over for the bulls..!

A ‘higher low’ early on gave a good long entry point provided that you suspected that the index would recover at least 50/61.8% of yesterday’s losses…..

It actually looked like it was going to break north through the resistance of the former support level at 11295 in the last hour, but it was just homing in on the pivot at 11305 (kindly generated by SierraCharts..) – a 3-peak negative divergent RSI top confirming the ‘top’ - Chartman's lessons live on....! (thank you..!!)

I note that the Naz has made a significant break above it’s 3 month resistance today, so unless this is a fake-out breakout, it could be the bullish way of things to come..

Actually the COMPX breakout to a 52 week igh at 2340 today, but more than that on Point & Figure the OTC Bullish Percent could have broken the August highs at 58% and these two rocking in tandem could propel the tech sector up very fast in the coming weeks

nice charts......................

 

[tradesmart]

Hi Jerry – I saw your chart on the Nasdaq thread and I agree that the Naz looks bullish for now – at least it held above the 2330 breakout level today having tested it as support…..and GOOG took a good step back from $400 resistance....

A good day for YM/Dow traders as long as you didn’t get taken in by the initial apparently ‘bullish’ surge up to 11320….!

As noted elsewhere, it was a bull trap signalled by the ND RSI H&S top – other observations on the day’s action marked on the 2min chart…..

The 10min chart shows that the Dow is in a well defined downtrend channel – the last one in late Feb/early March acted like a big bull flag, but I’ll reserve judgement on this one pending a decisive break north above the top resistance line…

 

[Jerry Olson]

Hi Jerry – I saw your chart on the Nasdaq thread and I agree that the Naz looks bullish for now – at least it held above the 2330 breakout level today having tested it as support…..and GOOG took a good step back from $400 resistance....

A good day for YM/Dow traders as long as you didn’t get taken in by the initial apparently ‘bullish’ surge up to 11320….!

As noted elsewhere, it was a bull trap signalled by the ND RSI H&S top – other observations on the day’s action marked on the 2min chart…..

The 10min chart shows that the Dow is in a well defined downtrend channel – the last one in late Feb/early March acted like a big bull flag, but I’ll reserve judgement on this one pending a decisive break north above the top resistance line…

Nice work your self there...Mr. Smart..................

We actually had a wonderful day today in our real time room...

i had 19 trades overall, 13 winners 4 lossers and 2 breakevens for a net total of $1.34 in scalps for the day.

We nailed AAPL, NVDA, SNDK and the usual suspects it's fun when your with a group of traders all trying to make a "days pay".

if anyone would like a copy of the text of all those trades and action today just let me know, we do live voice and text on all trades with entries stops and exits.

and most of us use that fabulous trading platform Laser at Genesis securities in NYC...we have developed our own layout for scalping. IN fact a friend here in the UK did it for us..

pretty nice when you can take all the emotions out of each trade even for a veteran like me...

hope everyone did well today as we consolidated in a narrow range day, with tomorrow on tap for the last day of window dressing

 

[frugi]

TS,

What delightful channels - Chartman would be proud of you.

I think the end of your 10 min might qualify as an inverse H&S (okay it looks like it's been at the absinthe, but...) that could propel us to the top of the channel, around 11290, tomorrow.

If not then scooping longs off the channel bottom is the way forward. There's still that 232 point retracement possibility too = c11160 YM, which would fit rather well, if it happens reasonably early.

I'll be weaned off my dirty scalping habit soon at this rate. Keep 'em coming.

 

[tradesmart]

I think the end of your 10 min might qualify as an inverse H&S

Yes Fruges, I gave that idea a chance, but it was quickly blown out by the little divergent H&S that formed at the 250 'top' today, quickly putting trading thoughts into short mode….

However, if we get some upside and it manages to break above the apex at 250, we may be calling the current setup a double-bottom with a target of 11325…..out of the channel top..

But the price seems loath to leave support at c.11180ish just now, but that could just be the last Friday of the quarter effect…even a little ‘feint’ down the 11160 near the close; quickly snapped up by buyers…..

Maybe on Monday we’ll see the first day of month/new quarter/fresh money effect kick in…….but oil$/bonds could spoil the party yet…

While concerns about interest rates are bound to remain in place next week, stocks could benefit from some early quarter and early April seasonal strength (MarketWatch)

Earnings are also about to start pouring in a few weeks, and anticipation of strong earnings should support stocks in the short term, said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst at S.W. Bach & Co. Longer term, the market may have trouble moving above recent highs.

 

[tradesmart]

Friday;-

However, if we get some upside and it manages to break above the apex at 250, we may be calling the current setup a double-bottom with a target of 11325…..out of the channel top..

Close (for the first half of the session, anyway..!.... )

A huge 40point gap up at the open, and the index following through with a surge up to and overlapping the combined resistance of the 11290 pivot and the top channel trendline…

However, a post-lunch pullback from the small ‘top’ triangle to initially the 11240 pivot, but a drop further south in the last ½ hour in an apparent attempt to fill the opening gap….

‘Round trips’ often give a clue to a possible triangle to follow, so maybe we’ll see some whipsawing leading up to the NF payrolls data on Friday…..

 

[Bigbusiness]

I noticed this mirror image pattern today. Will be interesting to see if it continues tomorrow.

 

[Bigbusiness]

The mirror worked well today

 

[tradesmart]

The mirror worked well today..

Certainly did BB! – but 7 years bad luck if you break it ,so take care......

Last Night:-

‘Round trips’ often give a clue to a possible triangle to follow

The market seems to agree so far…….

 

[tradesmart]

A slight adjustment to take the top resistance line to 11305, but still within the triangle framework….

Now clearly of the ‘ascending’ variety that can have a bullish outcome, and the 145 triangle height hints at a similar target from the breakpoint….

Obviously a market in need of a catalyst to enable a break out of the trading range, and with the generally market moving NF payrolls data fast approaching (13.30bst Friday) this could be the event to watch…..

 

[mombasa]

Not sure that ascending triangle is going to break to the upside TS. Have ND on 5, 10, 15 min so I think tomorrow will be down (initially at least)

 

[Jerry Olson]

A slight adjustment to take the top resistance line to 11305, but still within the triangle framework….

Now clearly of the ‘ascending’ variety that can have a bullish outcome, and the 145 triangle height hints at a similar target from the breakpoint….

Obviously a market in need of a catalyst to enable a break out of the trading range, and with the generally market moving NF payrolls data fast approaching (13.30bst Friday) this could be the event to watch…..

Hi tradesmart love your hard work and charts. I have an upside target for the INDU for 11,650 over the next 30-60 days or so. The chart i'm looking at has a channel rather than a rising wedge. I also have 100 point move planned for the NAZ to 2440 off that 2340 breakout on P&F.

this day was sensational as trend days up are always fun to trade...

http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ1.gif

best of luck