...Anyway, I don't think we're going over the fiscal cliff and if it did occur, there will be enough time to get short. My view is use this as an oppotunity to buy. I've been waiting for a dip to buy in terms of equities, this could well be it.
Agree, it's too early to make a short bet based on fiscal cliff. Watch volatility, right now it declines which mean there nobody in panic about it on the market. There is a lot of noise about fiscal cliff to make a pressure on congress/president. Yes, we can have strong decline and volatile trading as a result of it, yet, it could be short-lived - recession does not start in one day.
Yes, we should watch media talks, yet, media should not affect our analysis. From my personal expense market goes in opposite to the media-talk way:
- in 2003 from March to the end of 2003 media was talking that war in Iraq was not as fast as planed and that is very bad for the market - we had strong recovery
- in 2008 the media started to talk about recession and crash in August/September - the recession actually started in October 2007 and in January 2008 (when F&M crisis occurred) it was already clear that the financial sector on the market is in big trouble
- in 2009-2011 the media constantly talked about continuation of recession and then about extremely high odds of double recession - the stock market completely recovered during those two years...
And after that you want to base your bet on media-talks...
I was short on GOOG and AAPL since October. Now, I'm in cash.