james1989
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Have you ever been in love with Tesco?
In my mind, the things people fall in love with make for lousy investments, i'm talking fanatical love, have a think through some crazes. Tesco doesn't make money for no reason, they offer pretty much everything at a reasonable price and they can do that cheaper than any of their rivals, no need for love.
Banking has not contributed to growth and stability thus far, and I don't expect it to be a growth driver going forward, just an addition to an all round service. If it doesn't work, they'll pull it like they did with their car service, at no loss to the shareholder.
A challenge for you, have a think back in 10 years, even one year and see if you outperform it's capital growth and dividends, but that wouldn't be much fun would it. Doomberg asks for returns.
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I am not saying it's a dead duck, I am questioning how far it will outperform the ftse in a bull market.
It is an old saying that when a company has a third of a market there is no more room for expansion,
Hence banking, tesco locals, estate agency, car service etc.
For sure it's a good company but for market share I think it could have peaked.
It is an old saying that when a company has a third of a market there is no more room for expansion,
Hence banking, tesco locals, estate agency, car service etc.
For sure it's a good company but for market share I think it could have peaked.
M
malaguti
All I see are lower lows, lower highs..
I'd not want to buy into that right now
A weekly chart of tesco..if we're looking at buy and hold, I've deliberately chosen a high time frame..I'd want to wait for a pullback to tell me I dont have any more lows coming. Thats just me though
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ZaBu
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I have given a bit more thought to what it was that was causing me to hesitate with Tesco. It certainly wasn’t people buying a turkey at M&S once a year but you have provided a pearl of wisdom and highlighted the brand polarisation that is taking place across many consumer markets. Tesco has a major issue with brand positioning and the lack of trust in the brand remains prevalent.
I am also concerned about changing technology and what it means for the large store portfolio. Like all businesses, Tesco is facing some big challenges arising from secular change and they are neither easy nor cheap to address. I am also uneasy about the sale and leaseback of stores.
There is no doubt that Tesco will continue to generate cash and a banking business powered by Clubcard data mining could be lucrative (if it can execute) but there are also some major unresolved issues in the business. The upshot is I’m still undecided on whether this is anything more than just a decent business that was once great.
Surely there must be better companies to buy and hold than supermarkets? Plus, with Tesco isn't it basically a conglomerate (particularly in the UK)? I was under the impression that the general rule of thumb for such companies is that they're not as efficient as a whole than if the individual parts were operating independently......
FYI, you really do not have to spend a lot of time to keep investing you know? A good example is the "worst to first" strategy........ie if you had bought the worst 5 performing stocks each year on the dow since 1930 you would have not just outperformed the market but also the 5 best performing stocks each year. Seems crazy right? And to be honest, i'm not sure I would have the balls to do that as some of those stocks must have seemed stupid to buy. Anyway, my point is often people make things a lot more complicated when a simple approach can pay large dividends. Market-timing is key and if you have a lot of other things on the go then you can afford not to be in the market every day (which by the way is often a bad thing if you're not a professional). Just wait for the large macro events to happen and position accordingly. I'll give you a few examples, Lehman goes down, QE1, QE2, QE3, fears grow that Greece needs a bailout, fears grow that portugal needs a bailout, fears grow that spain needs a bailout, LTRO, Draghi bond buying plan. Each of these events should have given you a minimum 10% uptick in your portfolio if you are positioned correctly which isn't hard if you understand what each of these means for different parts of the market........
FYI, you really do not have to spend a lot of time to keep investing you know? A good example is the "worst to first" strategy........ie if you had bought the worst 5 performing stocks each year on the dow since 1930 you would have not just outperformed the market but also the 5 best performing stocks each year. Seems crazy right? And to be honest, i'm not sure I would have the balls to do that as some of those stocks must have seemed stupid to buy. Anyway, my point is often people make things a lot more complicated when a simple approach can pay large dividends. Market-timing is key and if you have a lot of other things on the go then you can afford not to be in the market every day (which by the way is often a bad thing if you're not a professional). Just wait for the large macro events to happen and position accordingly. I'll give you a few examples, Lehman goes down, QE1, QE2, QE3, fears grow that Greece needs a bailout, fears grow that portugal needs a bailout, fears grow that spain needs a bailout, LTRO, Draghi bond buying plan. Each of these events should have given you a minimum 10% uptick in your portfolio if you are positioned correctly which isn't hard if you understand what each of these means for different parts of the market........
US OIL & GAS (U S O P) Have hit a mother load of oil in Nevada flow rates in 10 / 15working days.
chinarunkun
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easttrader
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apple touched new maximum !!! looks like the next level is 750...
at the beginning of the year i told ma friends to buy call options and hold them ))))
NEver listen to other people )))))
at the beginning of the year i told ma friends to buy call options and hold them ))))
NEver listen to other people )))))
Sidekicker
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If you are buying and holding then you wants to buy shares with a dividend, low P/E and little if any debt.
M
malaguti
My suggestion of buying Lloyds when I said would have generated a lovely 30% return in a few weeks! Its about good analysis not fundamentals..
dan1986ccfc
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Agree, I was in at Lloyds at 34p. I'm thinking it will get to atleast double that in the near future.
Another stock to look at buying and holding: Firstgroup PLC
Got in at 193p as it bounced off of support. If it breaks through 215 i'll be adding to my position and holding until we see the 250 area and possibly higher.
