scose-no-doubt
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So it's all about the sigmas then?
4xpipcounter
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I am a huge fan of Forex TRM, because their charts impecably measure the total algorhthymic scope of the markets. They were derived from JM Hurst's studies of the algorythms of the markets. They are formula based but too deep.
What does this even mean?
4xpipcounter
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Ib, markets have a natural rhythmic flow to them. Its movements are predictable, as long as you have the methodology that can predict those movements. The TRM bands that I alluded to helps the trader in finding those movements and even in showing where supports and resistances are, as well as composes all the information into an algorithmic scale that shows the flow of price action even into the future.
I am not affiliated with the company in any way, but strongly believe in their charts and that they will make any trader better.
I am not affiliated with the company in any way, but strongly believe in their charts and that they will make any trader better.
NOW you're getting somewhere
TA works when you keep it simples......
Im starting to think that TA is a load of ****e; am i wrong?
I read book by men who have PHDs and MBA in chemistry and physics who are talking about when a charts makes "head and shoulders".
Im sorry but that just sounds like a load of bolony like where is the thought in that? Like that is comparable to look at tea leaves. Im open to correction on this but i seriously doubt a trader making 1 million in Goldman Sachs is look for head and shoulders in a charts or maybe he is? I wont even start about fibonacci "patterns". Im not doubting the profitablity of these strategies but they seem a bit wishy-washy.
4xpipcounter
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First of all, titles behind a person's name means nothing of the applicability of technicals or the lack of it. Those titles do not mean they have the right answer.
Many factors go into the failure of TA's. The right combination, the right application, or the right methodology to fit that person's trading mind. This all takes work to properly develop, as it does not happen overnight.
We are also in an industry that is full of failures, as only 90% of all traders succeed, and most of those that failed use TA's to determine their trading decisions. That might give a negative slant to TA's.
As far as them being wishy washy or full of baloney, I would tell you unabashedly the answer is "NO". Why? Because I use them, and I am very successful.
I do a Weekly Report that is highly accurate, and it is nothing but TA's, as news events are not considered in my report. It is based on the Weekly Report that all my trading decisions are based for that week.
Many factors go into the failure of TA's. The right combination, the right application, or the right methodology to fit that person's trading mind. This all takes work to properly develop, as it does not happen overnight.
We are also in an industry that is full of failures, as only 90% of all traders succeed, and most of those that failed use TA's to determine their trading decisions. That might give a negative slant to TA's.
As far as them being wishy washy or full of baloney, I would tell you unabashedly the answer is "NO". Why? Because I use them, and I am very successful.
I do a Weekly Report that is highly accurate, and it is nothing but TA's, as news events are not considered in my report. It is based on the Weekly Report that all my trading decisions are based for that week.
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Buffet has got rocks in his head if he thinks that LTCM could match in any way the intellectual firepower of organizations such as ATT's Bell Labs (and others).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_Labs
FX Bandit
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At least he hasn't got his head up his a$$, rocks or no rocks.
FX Bandit
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Not entirely, most of it is indeed a load of sloblock. But there are elements that are valid if correctly applied.
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FX Bandit
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I think a lot of people fail because they think that there is an infallible indicator or combination - x crosses Y, sell blindly. They don't see indicators as tools, to be used correctly or incorrectly.
4xpipcounter
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He's got rocks in his head when it comes to teaching trading. He's got brains when it comes to wealth accumulation.
4xpipcounter
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Exactly! It is a matter of finding the right indicators and combination of them for that individual. This is the part that takes work with no pay. Many people do not want to pay that price.
FX Bandit
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He doesn't teach trading does he?
FX Bandit
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You won't win many friends with that attitude
.You can tell when you see people saying things like "divergence doesn't work", "PA doesn't work" etc. Nothing works in the way that most people mean (ie, see a pin bar pointing up, buy, sell at the top of the market, order Rolls with Flame paint job).
That's before you get to MM, trade management, pyschology and so on.
4xpipcounter
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I don't have his quotes in front of me, but he has implied the position of a Samurai in trading. The problem is, and it is the case with people with extreme wealth, IMO, they enter their trades with a reckless abandon. Once a certain percentage of the overall money has reached a certain level, then they enter going the opposite way. No thought given, or even any certainty of a set methodological way of entering the trade.
I mentioned earlier that I use 10% margining on all my trades. That means the trade has to back up on me 1,000 pips before my account would bankrupt. The extreme wealthy may use (this part is conjecture) 1/2%, which means the trade would have to back up on them 20,000 pips.
Now, to put all that in perspective. Someone might say I'll do the same thing. If you or I have only, i.e, $50,000 in our account, and we margin 1/2%, then that means we would place .1 lots (1 micro lot) on a trade. If we are making 400 pips per week, that would also mean $400 per week, which would translate to a very punitive living. This is why we would margin more. Seeing we don't have the money those big cats do, we tend to want to risk more and are more greedy, which is another topic for another day.
If you take 1/2 % on a $billion (ala the example of Buffet), then you are putting 5,000 lots on one trade, which means each pip is worth $50,000. They only need to gain 200 pips, and they have made $1 million on the trade at extremely low risk. They do not care if the trade goes against them 600 pips in order to gain the 200.
In essence the percentages are all relative, but the mindset is entirely different. That style of trading could be taught to anyone, but as was pointed pointed out, it still would not be very profitable unless there was great wads of money in the account.
I mentioned earlier that I use 10% margining on all my trades. That means the trade has to back up on me 1,000 pips before my account would bankrupt. The extreme wealthy may use (this part is conjecture) 1/2%, which means the trade would have to back up on them 20,000 pips.
Now, to put all that in perspective. Someone might say I'll do the same thing. If you or I have only, i.e, $50,000 in our account, and we margin 1/2%, then that means we would place .1 lots (1 micro lot) on a trade. If we are making 400 pips per week, that would also mean $400 per week, which would translate to a very punitive living. This is why we would margin more. Seeing we don't have the money those big cats do, we tend to want to risk more and are more greedy, which is another topic for another day.
If you take 1/2 % on a $billion (ala the example of Buffet), then you are putting 5,000 lots on one trade, which means each pip is worth $50,000. They only need to gain 200 pips, and they have made $1 million on the trade at extremely low risk. They do not care if the trade goes against them 600 pips in order to gain the 200.
In essence the percentages are all relative, but the mindset is entirely different. That style of trading could be taught to anyone, but as was pointed pointed out, it still would not be very profitable unless there was great wads of money in the account.
4xpipcounter
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You're right! It doesn't win many friends. But the ones who do not adhere to that (Don't mean to sound smug.), will pay the price and suffer, most of the time, in silence. I like to make friends, but that is secondary to telling it to you just the way it is.
I've worked with many traders one-on-one for free. When they become successful and they have you to thank for it, it is worth all the money in the world. It also empowers me to be better at what I do, so I can be better for others. It keeps going around.
Admittedly so, most don't want to listen to hard work paying dividends. They want some grail or get-rich-quick scheme. It does not work! Period!
If you want to get rich, then do it! But it takes time and effort. You will also have the rest of your life to enjoy it.
In essence, the friends I want to win are based on honesty and integrity, not on me telling someone what they want to hear.
Also, what you mentioned is so true. People make a cursory attempt at something, and then they say it does not work. They give themselves away. Also, 'm not trying to be candid or pointed here, but when someone says the mathematics of the markets do not work, it is evident they did not take the time to fully study and understand the mathematics of the markets.
BTW, anyone can study for a lifetime, but no one will fully arrive. It just shows how much even the most seasoned trader has to learn.
I've worked with many traders one-on-one for free. When they become successful and they have you to thank for it, it is worth all the money in the world. It also empowers me to be better at what I do, so I can be better for others. It keeps going around.
Admittedly so, most don't want to listen to hard work paying dividends. They want some grail or get-rich-quick scheme. It does not work! Period!
If you want to get rich, then do it! But it takes time and effort. You will also have the rest of your life to enjoy it.
In essence, the friends I want to win are based on honesty and integrity, not on me telling someone what they want to hear.
Also, what you mentioned is so true. People make a cursory attempt at something, and then they say it does not work. They give themselves away. Also, 'm not trying to be candid or pointed here, but when someone says the mathematics of the markets do not work, it is evident they did not take the time to fully study and understand the mathematics of the markets.
BTW, anyone can study for a lifetime, but no one will fully arrive. It just shows how much even the most seasoned trader has to learn.
You won't win many friends with that attitude
You can tell when you see people saying things like "divergence doesn't work", "PA doesn't work" etc. Nothing works in the way that most people mean (ie, see a pin bar pointing up, buy, sell at the top of the market, order Rolls with Flame paint job).
That's before you get to MM, trade management, pyschology and so on.
In short, the really successful ones will not tell you.
You are probably not interested in the ones that lost their shirt.
Many look for some sort of formula that allows them to trade profitably.
Here is one really simple one : from the crash in 08 to early 10, if the market went down one day, there was a > 50% chance it would go up the next (and v.v. )
I dont think this holds so well anymore.
As others have commented, if there is a 'magic rule' out there :
- if it is simple, you can work it out for yourself
- if it is impossibly complex and unknowable you (all of us) might as well give up
So, basically there is not a formula (as far as I know )
What there is is the result of hard work by bright people that provides a better than average chance for a limited period of time.
You are probably not interested in the ones that lost their shirt.
Many look for some sort of formula that allows them to trade profitably.
Here is one really simple one : from the crash in 08 to early 10, if the market went down one day, there was a > 50% chance it would go up the next (and v.v. )
I dont think this holds so well anymore.
As others have commented, if there is a 'magic rule' out there :
- if it is simple, you can work it out for yourself
- if it is impossibly complex and unknowable you (all of us) might as well give up
So, basically there is not a formula (as far as I know
)What there is is the result of hard work by bright people that provides a better than average chance for a limited period of time.
4xpipcounter
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The mathematics is not necessarily in some unique formula. Sometimes it is in a Fibo mark. Other times it is in a simple bounce off of a certain S or R that has been mathematically fixed, but is not obvious. As an example, the cornerstone of my methodology is the ichimoku cloud. The tenken, kijun, chinkou, and both senkou spans are ensconced in their own mathematical formulas.
The point you made about the stock market is so true because the market hit a very extreme OB condition, once it reverses there is no looking back. I don't see a market in sight that is close to the OB/OS extremes the stock market was in Oct 2007.
I don't mean this derogatorily, but the ones that lost their shirts have little to offer. There are very few successful ones who enjoy sharing the how and wherefore of thier success.
The point you made about the stock market is so true because the market hit a very extreme OB condition, once it reverses there is no looking back. I don't see a market in sight that is close to the OB/OS extremes the stock market was in Oct 2007.
I don't mean this derogatorily, but the ones that lost their shirts have little to offer. There are very few successful ones who enjoy sharing the how and wherefore of thier success.
In short, the really successful ones will not tell you.
You are probably not interested in the ones that lost their shirt.
Many look for some sort of formula that allows them to trade profitably.
Here is one really simple one : from the crash in 08 to early 10, if the market went down one day, there was a > 50% chance it would go up the next (and v.v. )
I dont think this holds so well anymore.
As others have commented, if there is a 'magic rule' out there :
- if it is simple, you can work it out for yourself
- if it is impossibly complex and unknowable you (all of us) might as well give up
So, basically there is not a formula (as far as I know
What there is is the result of hard work by bright people that provides a better than average chance for a limited period of time.
Martinghoul
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Here's one magic formula:
Here's another one, which is extremely important to algo/math-based peeps:
EDIT: I thought I should use this opportunity to say that I am with GJ here. TA, IMHO, is a bunch of waffly mumbo-jumbo. That is to say, the only difference between quantitative methods and TA is the quality and rigor of the analysis, nothing more.
Here's another one, which is extremely important to algo/math-based peeps:
EDIT: I thought I should use this opportunity to say that I am with GJ here. TA, IMHO, is a bunch of waffly mumbo-jumbo. That is to say, the only difference between quantitative methods and TA is the quality and rigor of the analysis, nothing more.
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