What is considered a good return ?

Dave1971

Theoretical???

My best day on the Dow made 125% profit staking 1/250th of capital or over 312 points.

All I am saying is that 6 points is very very possible for anyone and will make you
1,400% pa. Where else are you going to get such returns.

Took 13 points in the first 19 mins of the US open today i.e. twice that necessary which allows for the occasional loser.
 
juanbyte said:
Dave1971

Theoretical???

My best day on the Dow made 125% profit staking 1/250th of capital or over 312 points.

All I am saying is that 6 points is very very possible for anyone and will make you
1,400% pa. Where else are you going to get such returns.

Took 13 points in the first 19 mins of the US open today i.e. twice that necessary which allows for the occasional loser.
Click to expand...

Wasn't suggesting you can't achieve it, it seems as though you can, I was merely seeking your opinion on how many people you think have the skills and discipline to sustain a return like this over a longer period. 1400% on £2500 is Ok but it would takes some guts to repeat that on the £35000 at the end of year one, and after that.......... ?

If and when i get my entries right I'd like to think I'd have the psyche to do it, but who knows.
 
I don't see why most people cannot make 6 points net per day from the Dow.

If you are trading 2.5k or 25k bank the risks are the same and you still only need 6 points.

Different people are happy trading certain amounts some cannot place large trades.
 
As a matter of interest Juanbyte what method do you use to select your entries? With a 6 point target I would have though a simple breakout or support and resistance strategy would suffice.

I have been looking at a similar strategy on Forex where particularly EUR/USD seems to have regular nice intraday breakouts such as today where a number of different strategies could have easily yielded 30+ points.
 
For the small points I just trade against the initial move of the Dow at the open.

91.25 win rate
7.52 Ave Win
9.71 Ave loss

these are net of any spread or commissions
 
no sorry , I still don't like it and that's my choice , take it or leave it :)

I said I would accept 7 meaning 7 out of 10% which 0.7% - MAX - a little word which makes all the difference which you left out.

everyone has an opinion , that's what the market is . and I have mine , it’s worked well for me in the market. so what ?


Ah , I see where this is wrong . Let me amend my original to include the condition : keeping the capital at risk at a CONSTANT throughout the trading period.

Hell , if we are talking compounding gains onto capital w/o taking $ out , well then even 5000% over 2 years would be possible . 1400% per annum would be nothing special.

So NO that is not what my parameters are .


Still on a wider note , I fail to see how one can count on taking 6 pts every day net , over 2 years w/o very big stop losses or no stops or taking the regular big loss .

I guess it may be ok in a steady rising market , but in a volatile one as we are now, I can' t see how this can work in the long run.

And 125 % return on 1 trade is not that great , it's only 2x your risk on trade.

Like Dave said the theory is nice but in the real world things are very different.
 
WG
Why ask questions when you are not prepared to learn?

I asked a similar question a while back and the top result was 25% per month, the same as 6 points per day, so 600% over 2 years.

Are you sure 1400% per annum is nothing to shout about, this would equal £529,395 or 21,000% over 2 years, which is quite ridiculous but shows what can be done with just 6 points per day.

Aiming for large wins often comes with large losses, I have a max stop of 13 points but also have a time stop of 6 minutes per trade, this reduces considerably any losses.

What are your win/lose and risk/reward figures.

The 125% in one day was over several trades, that is 125% return on my total capital.
How do you work out that it is only 2 times my risk, this would mean risking 50% of my capital per trade which I do not do, I risk 1/10 of my optimum risk

I thought this site was for education, compounding or reinvesting a portion of ones profits is often overlooked but it is an important factor to consider if you want to make money. That is why banks, mortgage lenders and credit card companies charge compound interest.

Would your question not be better what a good monthly return is, I work on a monthly basis and take money out every month.
 
excuse me , please don't assume I / we want to learn anything . I am entitled to ask , if you don't want to reply , you are welcome not to.

I refer you to my previous message and the part about constant capital base , so all talk of 1000's of percent is rather irrelevant .

We are not banks, mortegage lenders etc , I would hazard to say 99% of us here are individuals .

so no the question would not be better posed that way .

also a monthly basis is too short a time frame to be valid.
 
Can you read?
The answer to your question was 600% over 2 years.

What are your thoughts?
 
What I thnk is this :

a 600% return on capital based on the conditions I specified is very good. But , I feel that very few have acheived this . the only way to prove this would be to ask for some sort of financial statement , and that would be too obtrusive .
so this is a bit of a dead end .


However , I do not believe that that one can do this by taking a constant 6 pts net profit everyday for 2 years .

Personally , it sounds fantastical .

The only way I can even see that this has a chance of working is in a steady rising market where everyday , you get a nice steady rise in the dow of 50 - 100 points without any wild swings.

Of course those days are over and the volatility is back , and you woud have to guess every little intraday swing correct to make your targets - a humanly impossible feat.

even if you had small stops , in such markets you could easily end up with 10 losers in a day and possibily a few days losers on the trot ( net ) .

the only other way is to increase your risk massively and trade without a stop loss - if so then this is outside of my parameters and not relevant to this topic.
 
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>However , I do not believe that that one can do this by taking a constant 6 pts net profit everyday for 2 years .>

Maybe you are right, maybe you are wrong:

In an (unfortunately german) edition of Active Traders mag there was the story published of a young austrian student of Vienna, who was trading succesfully -til 2001. He lost almost all of his account, which he had traded up to some € 80 thousand. He had some 1500 € left.

Then he started again, announcing and documenting every trade in 2 threads on a german board.
The main thread was named something like: And It Does Work!

He averaged some 2400 % every year without compunding. His (freely available) method (on just 2 underlyings - DAX and Volkswagen - hourly timeframe) and 8.5 mb xls file is here: candletrading.de , which is a free and non-commercial board.

Results:http://www.candletrading.de/candlesticks_performance.html

His method is based on daily or hourly candlesticks + CCI 11 and SMA8 on CCI11. You can order (free) push signals (candlewatch).

He is using and promoting d4f cfds for trading. And he finished his university exams (BA hons) whilst trading and managing his site.

So its neither required to have a lot of cash, nor a lot of screentime, to make 200 % on your margin monthly.


Regards

Hittfeld

Not meant as advertisement, nothing there to sell, just plain information.

Regards

Hittfeld
 
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" He lost almost all of his account, which he had traded up to some € 80 thousand. He had some 1500 € left. "



Sorry dude , this statement says it all . this has no risk control , it's gambling , better off going to the casino , rather than spending all this time learning the ins and outs of trading.


For me I go by the maxim : NO RISK CONTROL , NO CAN DO .
 
wisestguy,

your interpretation is completely wrong ! Naturally the system has (after the 2001 disaster) stops . If you`d go to the linked site, you might find a there (and in the xls file) discussions of variations on this theme.

But maybe the language barrier ( English is ((just as german)) not my first language) is too high. But this is a lesson for me, that when a hint is given regarding a possibly successful method, this is not studied, but turned down or proof by money back guarantee is requested.

Regards

Hittfeld
 
" He lost almost all of his account, which he had traded up to some € 80 thousand. He had some 1500 € left. "


No interpretation here , your post is very clear . It shows tremendous volatility which only means 1 thing : lack of real risk control.

Anyway you are barking up the wrong tree, I am not looking to buy any system nor am I selling anything as the case maybe.
 
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Hittfeld
You are wasting your time with WG, he doesn't believe you can make 25% per month return on capital so he won't accept that you can make 200% per month.

Making 5501% in 4 weeks would also be unbelievable even if I showed him my statements.

WG
I knew one of us was from another planet, it must be me because I am doing the "humanly impossible feat"

I only deal in facts, you just have opinions saying "I do not believe ""even if ""humanly impossible ""I still don't like it " even though I have published the results of my actual trades.

I am at a loss as to how you come to the conclusion that you could have 10 losses in one day when my results are for one trade only per day?

You must have a very poor win ratio and lack of confidence on whatever method you are using to trade.

It should be noted from my results that it is not necessary to have a 3:1 win ratio to win in the markets in fact my results show a negative ratio but still makes 25% per month.

Taking 6 points net from the swings of over 200 points as the Dow did on Friday is peanuts.

I trade the volatility and it is not a problem, it is what makes this work.

My trades last for 2-4 minutes on average and I have a 6 minute stop as well as a fixed stop.
The worst loss during the period was 20 points and the max win was 29.

Everything is within the paramaters of your original post.
 
" I have published the results of my actual trades. "


what results ?


" 10 losses in one day when my results are for one trade only per day? "


it sounded a lot more like you were trading many times a day . even so , you could still have 10 net losers in a row , whether in a day or a month. I've seen it , and experienced it .


" It should be noted from my results that it is not necessary to have a 3:1 win ratio "


what ratio is this ? there are many trading ratios , which one is it ?


" Taking 6 points net from the swings of over 200 points as the Dow did on Friday is peanuts "


actually , you could just s well lose 200 :)


" I trade the volatility and it is not a problem, it is what makes this work. "


you are contradicting yourself now , previously you said that you only wanted 6 points a day . volatilty would be a major block to that


" The worst loss during the period was 20 points and the max win was 29 "


that's terrible , given a 200 point swing , and so is the win/loss ratio - bad .

- 20 x 10 losers in a row = 200 pt loss . hardly impressive.



" Everything is within the paramaters of your original post. "



No , it is not.


I have been told you are a salesman of sorts - I'll make it clear - I am not interested in what you are hocking.

perhaps if you were less ambivalent in conversation , we could get somewhere but alas .
 
In what way are the not within your paramiters?

The results again are
80 trading days with 1 trade per day
73 wins 7 losers = 91.25%
Total points won 549
Total points lost 68
Net points 481
Ave win 7.52
Ave loss 9.71
Exp 6.0125 per trade.
Max loss 20
Max Win 29

Dave was asking how many people could achieve 6 points per day net, as this is only 0.03% of the intraday swings on the Dow I would say most people.

I am not selling anything here, just pointing out that you do not need to make huge gains to make a good living from trading. 6 points is just over 1% per day and will give you 25% per month and 600% over 2 years without compounding.

This is a 5k monthly return on your 20k capital

I just try to help people, I recieved an email from someone who wanted help with Forex. I don't trade it personally it is like watching paint dry but I showed him a method to trade and later that day it produced 110 points profit on 2 trades.

Another email received was from someone who has been trading for 4 years, he has spent thousands on courses and software but has yet to make money.

There are people who want/need help out there.

I what way am I contradicting myself, I trade the first hour of the US open, this has always been volatile and it is this volatility that I take advantage of.

What was the point of asking your original question, particulary when everyone who answers is wrong

What do you consider a good return?
 
I'm with you on this one Juanbyte,

If entries are timed right and exits and stops are adhered to with discipline then 6 points per day, not only seems acheivable, but actually rather conservative. JohnnyT has posted many Forex systems that have backtested to produce more than this.

If, as it seems you have, you have a reliable entry method then good luck to you, I hope I can find similar consistency for myself soon.

Dave
 
Making 6 points a day sounds easy enough, but in practice it is far more difficult.

What is considered a good return by one, may be considered bad by someone else. 50% on a £100k account is great, but 50% on £1000 doesn't seem nearly as good.
 
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