What effect will 'The Singularity' have on trading?

[dcraig1]

I have been trawling through Kurzweil's site and I urge anybody with a passing interest in this subject to read the following. It's worth the effort I promise you.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?m=1

For those with their eyes wide open there are many gems for the taking.

Much against my better judgement I had look at the bit on runaway AI. Here is an extract

Tao Systems' Virtual Processing Operating System (now known as "Elate"), currently being embedded in cellphones, PDAs, and other appliances, is a revolutionary bit of code that has been nibbling at the edges of the world for the past decade. It can run on any processor (and is backward compatible to the i286). It is infinitely - and automatically - self-scaleable. It treats distributed and parallel processing interchangeably, self-correcting for latency across all processors, linked by any means, transiently forming them all into a single coherent computational unit. It consists of an infinite variety of very brief, compact and efficient assembly language function call, that together can construct any application. It runs off of a nanokernal that can discretize itself to as little as 13 kilobytes. As a result, it is hundreds of times faster than monolithic applications running in any flavor of Unix, and thousands of times faster than anything run under Windows - and these discrepencies only become more pronounced as the hardware power scales upward.

All I can say is what a load of marketing drivel. Hundreds of times faster than Unix ? Oh really. Prove this.

Construct any application with a handfull of assembly language function calls ? Yeah right.

The Java JVM can run on most processor architectures too. There are research versions that can distribute threads transparently across a heterogenous network of machines (transparent parallel and distributed processing). Why this should lead to runaway AI is beyond me. I doubt that it keeps the Research and Development staff at Sun awake at night either.

This type of stuff is typical of the futureology industry. Concatenate a whole lot of blather, and hey presto, you get a singularity !

 

[firewalker99]

I agree with this.

There has been no great revolution since the first computer chipped its first cog. Computers are more powerful today, but so far that equates to nothing more than doing what it could originally but a bit quicker.

So, a computer in 20 years time might be 50 times more powerful than they are today … big deal. I guess we can play games a bit quicker then, or place a stock order in .1 of a second and not .5 of a second.

I guess the only main leap forward which many of us actually benefit from is the internet, but this is an invention based on old technology rather than something futuristic. Data is transferred through the phone line and reassembled at the other end – television has been doing something similar for years.

I think it's a big understatement to say that computers have just gotten more powerful than they used to do. With todays graphic processing unit's (GPU's as opposed to CPU's) we can create photorealistic worlds that seemed impossible at times. I'm not only talking about the latest developments in cinematographic computer games, but also at 3D (animation movies) or distributed computing power on a large scale (SETI@Home, Einstein@Home, evolution@home, Rosetta@home,...). With what we have today, we can do exponentially more in a much faster way than what people we're used to a few decades ago.

 

[firewalker99]

just another example of 'mans stupidity' i believe......Einstien was right. look at the current state of affairs & scientists with too much time, money & resources come out with stuff like this.
kinda reminds me of the great search for 'dark matter' where after years of study & funding, millions ( if not more) chucked at it.....they finally come out with the great discovery & result of '' dark matter was quite hard to find''................after not finding any
j

I don't know what magazine you're reading about dark matter, but there is much more evidence pointing in the direction that it does exist:

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2006/aug/HQ_06297_CHANDRA_Dark_Matter.html
http://chandra.harvard.edu/press/06_releases/press_082106.html

 

[chump]

LOL.......I loved it , the idea that is ,but I won't be waiting for it to happen. Anything the human brain can develop, it can also work twice as hard to screw up ...unwritten and little known law of human behaviour

 

[jmreeve]

I can't argue that huge advances have been made in many areas in the application of technology, including robotics. IMHO this is more due to better understanding what we have already than anything radically new.

One example is computers in mathematics. They are fantastic at providing numerical solutions, but have been unimpressive as an aid to pure mathematics - which requires intelligence. My knowledge is very limited here but wasn't the solution to the four colour problem the first new theorum in which computers were integral to the solution. And that was only a few years ago. They're going to have to do a lot better than this if there is going to be some sort of Vulcan mind meld between organic and machine intelligence in a 'singularity'.

Even the progressive development of current knowledge along with the application of very fast computers is going to lead to machines doing some very impressive things. The development of biologically inspired algorithms is relatively new and still making solid progress.

However, I would have to agree that I don't see any of the current technolgy leading to god like machines, a meld between organic and machine or anything of the sort. However, if you want to get publicity and sell books then coming up with sentational visions based on pseudo science
is a useful strategy. The reality will likely be more mundane but still quite impressive.

As for trading, I was talking to a prop trader on Saturday who was complaining bitterly about black boxes. Computers are already making life much more difficult for discretionary traders in certain areas and this is a trend that will continue.

 

[rols]

Even the progressive development of current knowledge along with the application of very fast computers is going to lead to machines doing some very impressive things. The development of biologically inspired algorithms is relatively new and still making solid progress.

However, I would have to agree that I don't see any of the current technolgy leading to god like machines, a meld between organic and machine or anything of the sort. However, if you want to get publicity and sell books then coming up with sentational visions based on pseudo science
is a useful strategy. The reality will likely be more mundane but still quite impressive.

As for trading, I was talking to a prop trader on Saturday who was complaining bitterly about black boxes. Computers are already making life much more difficult for discretionary traders in certain areas and this is a trend that will continue.

Thanks for this Jim and for getting back on topic. I think many of us can see program trades firing off on closing of various timeframes. I read recently that 70% of futures trading is via black box. Does anybody have a clue whether this is near the truth or another sci fi fantasy?

Going back to the kurzweil site there were a couple of things that amused me. One proposition that the miracle of our present universe is just too unlikely to have happened by accident therefore the future has already happened and we are part of some huge AI system. Secondly there was the observation that it doesn't matter how powerful any computer may be, you only have to remove one component or processor and it won't work anymore, unlike the human brain where parts can be removed and it will still function.

There is an excellent post from a guy (via previous link I posted) who claims to have mastered time travel etc and I am also fascinated to see wooly intellectuals flexing their over developed muscles at one another.

BTW Computers have programs and software but where is our software and controller?

BTW2 Anybody thinking of buying a keyboard/synth - kurzweils are still the best!

 

[jmreeve]

A 70% figure for black box and algo trading is quite realistic.

 

[Finlayson]

yes i know..........but all still speculation, i am very open minded to most things......but i think anyone who thought about it long enough, may not agree, but would understand my point.

its just a point....i wont stake anything on it

J

I don't know what magazine you're reading about dark matter, but there is much more evidence pointing in the direction that it does exist:

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2006/aug/HQ_06297_CHANDRA_Dark_Matter.html
http://chandra.harvard.edu/press/06_releases/press_082106.html

 

[Legion]

Hi everyone interesting topic, however what will happen to money, slave labour and manipulation of the people ? Is there some sort of super compassion chip suddenly being installed in todays new born humans? There needs to be I think if that 2029 theory stands any chance.

My left nut and $10.00 says it aint gonna be so...

We can feed the world now so why do we choose not to ?

We are still selfish instead of selfless. Maybe mass conscious awareness will arrive but 2029 is a lotto draw buddy ,squeezing a millenia or 2 of evolution of self into 23 years is some ballsy statement , again however if theres a chemical going for that one, I'm a buyer.