What do you do?

Guts are an evolutionary trigger for when something is wrong, I get it all the time. Usually they are right.

The trick is to cypher out the paranoia.
 
DionysusToast said:
Despite the speed with which Tom recommended your post me old Chna, Trader Dante is NOT Jesse Livermore.

Please don't add delusions of grandeur to his list of 'conditions'...
Click to expand...

And despite the speed with which Dion displayed the ever present chip on his shoulder, let's not forget, it was an excellent quote that made a good point.

Mr Livermore was not the only person that ever had intuition :)
 
I've been thinking and reflecting on these questions that you have and my response is (d).

My sentiment is that you are far too obsessed with trading such that your mind is imbalanced and subconscious is mutating with the markets, elavating you to the zenith of the trading art you aspire to...

This could be positive or negative. It could mean you can assimilate the information in the charts and the news to have an instinctive feel for the market.

Alternatively, it could be that you become so obsessed in believing your ability that you will become deluded thinking you can never get it wrong.

Something for you to consider and judge within.

Good long holiday would be my recommendation.

Best wishes (y)


trader_dante said:
I would be really interested in other people's opinion on this experience I had and specifically, what you would do in this situation.

I was watching CL for the last three days and I've had a strong feeling that it's going to break $80.70 to the downside.

I wasn't sure whether it was just going to flush out the D1 lows or actually make a sustained break of them but it was the only thing that I felt strongly about when I looked at the markets.

The reason for this feeling was that one of my theories on S/R is that the more they are tested, the more they are likely to give way and CL is currently on it's 12th test on the D1.

At any rate, I was talking to a fellow trader late last night before I went to bed and he also trades CL. And I said to him "watch that Crude tomorrow (meaning, of course, today) because it's going to go down".

Then a short while after I finished speaking with him I fell asleep.

Next thing I know, in the middle of the night, I wake up suddenly with this strong feeling that I have to get LONG CL immediately. The strange thing was that I couldn't remember having any kind of dream before I woke up. I was just suddenly wide awake and I had that kind of feeling you get when your eyes open and you have that split second of intense fear that you have somewhere to be and you've slept through your alarm.

Now I am lying right next to my screens which is how I sleep so I could have got up and just immediately taken a position but instead I just lie there, staring at the ceiling and I say to myself, "Don't be ridiculous, you want to be short, it's sitting right on the level and it hasn't gone anywhere..." And then I get to thinking "Why is that just sitting there with the Euro down over 3% in two days trading?" and soon enough I drift back to sleep.

This morning I am relating the phenomenon to my friend and before I have even got to the end of the story he is scrabbling around for his account login to crack it long.

Now, I've been watching the market today and I've seen no entry (either long or short) that I would normally take and yet the market is now up $3.

Which leaves one happy friend and one slightly bemused Dante.

So the question I am genuinely interested in hearing other traders views on is what would you have done if this had happened to you:

a) Ignored it and done nothing.

b) Immediately taken a position at full size.

c) Immediately taken a position at reduced size so you have some exposure.

d) Something else that I haven't covered.

Thank you for your time reading this.

Tom
Click to expand...
 
trader_dante said:
And despite the speed with which Dion displayed the ever present chip on his shoulder, let's not forget, it was an excellent quote that made a good point.

Mr Livermore was not the only person that ever had intuition :)
Click to expand...

That's not a chip on my shoulder - it's a French Fry you peasant.

You do realise that "Reminiscences" is a work of fiction, right ?

I know lots of people like to look at it as the bible of trading but it is a fictional work which was almost certainly based on the life of Livermore. It is not however, an auto-biography.

You should consider then, that the 'musings' of 'Livermore' in that book come from the imagination of the author and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt.

If a comparison to a fictional character in an old book is somehow making a point relevant to trading, then I officially concede the point to you. On the other hand, if I quoted Rupert The Bear on hear as a trading guru, I think I'd be laughed off stage.

Sleeping next to your trading screens is not healthy Tom. You are clearly obsessed, as such you should view your 'gut feelings' with a healthy degree of skepticism. Were you on a more even keel and your gut feelings were coming at times you were actually trading, then of course you should look into them.

Waking up in the middle of the night next to your screens with the desire to long something is going to crush you psychologically when you are wrong.
 
I don't see anything wrong with sleeping by screens if thats what suit you.
When our babies were waking me many (many many) times during the night, I used it to my advantage to keep an eye on the Chinese soybean session through the night. And I did quite OK out of it.
 
glyder said:
I don't see anything wrong with sleeping by screens if thats what suit you.
When our babies were waking me many (many many) times during the night, I used it to my advantage to keep an eye on the Chinese soybean session through the night. And I did quite OK out of it.
Click to expand...

If this is true, you're a ledge.
 
trader_dante said:
If this is true, you're a ledge.
Click to expand...

Thanks Tom,
I wish I was....
It was a crazy time, I was pretty new to trading live and I noticed the soybeans seemed to be having plenty of moves thru the night, which is when I was often awake, (although not by choice).
I had a seriously huge bout of beginners luck - and have been dogged by the comedown from it ever since :)
 
DionysusToast said:
You do realise that "Reminiscences" is a work of fiction, right ?

I know lots of people like to look at it as the bible of trading but it is a fictional work which was almost certainly based on the life of Livermore. It is not however, an auto-biography.
Click to expand...

I didn't know it was a work of fiction, but it's not a book I would ever recommend for someone looking to find their way in trading.

Ok, Livermore had elephant sized balls but do people really think this is a template of how to trade?? To make a fortune, squander it, claw it back, generally take ridiculous levels of risk and then commit suicide .. ? This book is entertaining, but does it actually inspire or guide people??
 
meanreversion said:
I didn't know it was a work of fiction, but it's not a book I would ever recommend for someone looking to find their way in trading.

Ok, Livermore had elephant sized balls but do people really think this is a template of how to trade?? To make a fortune, squander it, claw it back, generally take ridiculous levels of risk and then commit suicide .. ? This book is entertaining, but does it actually inspire or guide people??
Click to expand...

PTJones Ftw!
 
with regards to the obsessive/compulsive gambler issue all in can say is what i used to tell people in my poker days- i used to play 6 or 7 days a week approx 12 hrs a day for 3 years straight, and that was why I was one of the greats.

needless to say I couldnt hold down a steady girlfriend etc. i didnt care, for me it was worth the stretch. thats what it takes to be great at anything in life, talent + an insatiable commitment to the cause at the cost of other parts of your life.

i doubt dante makes any money from these instincts- in his live trading room it appears he cant trade them for sh*t, but as a member of this room i have made good money trading them my own way.

its only a dangerous obsession if you do all these things and are still a losing trader over the long run. i doubt dante makes millions from trading , but his setups are profitable over time
 
Last edited:
Ah Pete, you just hit the 2,000 mark, congrats. I reckon we should campaign for change of status from 'Legendary' to something else. Any suggestions?
 
wackypete2 said:
Thanks.
Yeah, I have a few suggestions, but none are fit to print. :LOL:

Peter
Click to expand...

Something like different levels: mildly incontinent up to highly incontinent.

IMO That would be a fair way to reward prolific posters.
 
There were always muppets on Countdown in the early rounds who would say "I'd like a continent please Carol".
 
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