Weekly Market Wrap For Commodity

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29-11-2010

In this thread we will provide Market Wrap for all the Base Metals & Precious Metals on Weekly basis.

 

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29-11-2010 TO 03-12-2010

MARKET WRAP

• Gold ended up snapping 2 weeks sell off
• Thin volume trading concerns commodities
• Copper drops further amid China’s demand worry
• U.S crude oil limits losses ending up 1.7%
• Dollar hits two-month high against Euro

Gold ended up marginally but remained cautious tracking global economic instability. Gold gained $5 to end the week at $1363.48 and touched weekly high of $1382. The cautiousness in gold was due to recent recovery in dollar as it hit fresh two-month high against Euro & China’s anti-inflation rate hikes. Though, Gold recovered some losses due to modest buying amid investors rising concerns over Euro zone credit worries and Irish debt crisis that may engulf other Euro zone. The momentum in gold is now due to currency fluctuations as buyers bid for it as a safe haven amid economic instability while liquidation is due to continuous rising dollar. World’s largest gold backed ETF, New York’s SPDR gold trust reported a drop down in its holdings to 1,285.084 tonnes vs. 1,289.36 tonnes.

Copper ended down for third consecutive week amid thin trading as the euro zone debt crisis boosted the dollar and fear of another interest rate hikes in China stoked worries about demand from the world's top metals buyer as another rate hike will dampen the base metals further pushing their demands lower. Copper opened the week at $385.3 and shredded almost $13 to end the week at $373.8. It took a crucial support of $365.35 while its RSI is at 58.63. The three month copper at London metal exchange closed down at $8239 a tonne vs. $8340 and ran into its third consecutive weekly loss. Further trigger for copper will be the crucial Euro zone debt crisis and China’s monetary action.

 

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06-12-2010 TO 10-12-2010

MARKET WRAP

1. Gold rises above $1,400 on dollar drop
2. Gold was up more than 3 percent this week
3. U.S. non-farm payrolls disappoint
4. Copper ends firm despite soft U.S. employment data
5. U.S. oil prices rose to a 25-month high

Gold ended the three week downtrend and posted its strongest week in last one month as softer dollar and bargain hunting helped this precious metal to gain almost $57 and ended at $1413.80 near its all time high of $1424.40. Gold surged as
Euro rebounded from a 2.5-month low and investors defied the Euro-zone debt fears complimented by the upbeat US economic data. On fundamental side, World’s largest gold backed ETF reported rise in its holdings to 1,298.447 tonnes vs. 1,293.891.
Silver tracked gold higher as it touched a new all time high of $29.38 & ended the week at $29.37 gaining $2.71 after breaching its Fibonacci retracement of 161.8 of Mar 08- Oct 08 fall.

Crude oil was steady this week and surged $5.68 to end the week at a new two year high of $89.31 as a weaker dollar spurred commodities investment and cold weather in Europe and U.S northeast lifted the further demand for heating oil. Crude oil opened the week at $83.99 and touched high of $89.47. Crude oil rose as investors turned for riskier assets such as oil and other commodities after tracking positive cues from Wall Street and a slew of upbeat U.S economic data like housing, retail sales & ADP non-farm employment change indicating economic recovery on track promising future oil demand. U.S Crude oil inventories came at 1.1M vs. 1.0M against expected (-) 0.8M.

 

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13-12-2010

MARKET WRAP

• Gold fell more than 2 percent w/w basis
• U.S. crude oil futures fell 1.57 percent this week
• China crude oil imports surge in Nov
• China copper imports up almost 30 percent
• Copper near record high after China imports data

Gold ended the week negative after touching a new all time high of $1431.12. Gold fell more than 2%, its biggest weekly fall in nearly two months as investors booked in profits and liquidated from this yellow metal due to upbeat U.S economic data. U.S consumer confidence at 6-month high and rebound in dollar dulled the gold’s shine, shredding almost $26 to end the week at $1385.80. Gold is further expected to correct as rising U.S treasury yields & interest rates will prompt investors to exit gold while China’s monetary tightening is another factor. Next trigger for Gold will be the Fed reserve meeting this week that will decide its further trend. Holdings of the world’s largest gold backed ETF, New York’s SPDR gold holdings fell by 1.518 tonnes to 1.293.778 tonnes.

Copper ended up for second consecutive week on the back of upbeat U.S economic data while its gains were capped by China’s monetary tightening. Copper gained almost $11 to end the week at $410.98 after touching a new all time high of $414.65 heading towards its 161.8 retracement level of $422.8. China’s copper imports were up almost 30% while U.S consumer sentiment at 6 month is supporting copper prices well, also, supply side shortages of copper due to falling ore grades, labor problems and project delays and continuous fall in LME inventories has fuelled up its demand. LME monitored copper inventories fell by 800 tonnes to 349,450 tonnes, having fallen from six and a half years high at 555,075 tonnes hit in February.

 

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20-12-2010 TO 25-12-2010

MARKET WRAP

1. SPDR gold ETF sees further outflow,Indian demand soft
2. Euro declined for a second straight week against the dollar
3. 2011 outlook remains bullish for gold
4. Copper ends up as market eyes 2011 demand boost
5. LME copper stocks up for 5th straight day

Gold ended negative for second consecutive week after touching weekly high of $1408.08 to end at $1375.10. The precious metal lost its appeal as a safe haven as number of U.S economic data jumped up in November. Gold lost almost $5 this week as U.S jobless claims came lower & Industrial activity came up at 24.3 signaling economic recovery. Bargain hunting for gold came in physical market from Asian countries & investors complimented by a weaker dollar, also, due to uncertainties over Europe’s debt contagion as Moody’s cut Ireland’s debt rating & putting Spain & Belgium in review. Gold is seen in the range of $1420 - $1370 till the year end due to thin trading and holidays. The holding’s of the worlds’ largest gold backed ETF, New York’s SPDR fell to a two month low of 1,283.757 tonnes.

Copper ended up for third consecutive week and surged $7 to end the week at $416.35. Copper made a new all time high of $421.95 while it touched weekly low of $407.17. Copper’s bullish trend is supported by its demand expectations in coming year and positive U.S economic data. Copper edged higher despite a rallying dollar against Euro as investors kept eye on stream of positive U.S economic data & China’s copper restocking next year. The industrial activity in U.S came up as Philly fed manufacturing index came at 24.3 vs. 22.5 while supply demand fundamental will continue to triumph for copper. London metal exchange (LME) benchmark copper ended up $79 at $9,070 a tonne, nearly $200 away from its all time high of $9,267.5 hit on Dec. 14.

 

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27-12-2010 TO 31-12-2010


MARKET WRAP

• Gold rises towards $1,385/oz as dollar retreats
• SPDR gold ETF heads for biggest weekly outflow since July
• Euro rebounds from three-week low versus dollar
• Copper steady in thin trade
• Oil hovered around its highest levels in more than two years

Gold bounced back from a week low to end in green at $1384.50 adding almost $5. Gold regained strength due to bargain hunting though thin trade owing to festive season and volatile Euro can direct gold in either trend. Investors are eyeing tensions in Korean peninsula while Euro rebounded from its week low but it may see further downside as debt crisis has also engulfed Ireland & Portugal. As we said in our earlier report, Gold is still in consolidation phase and another stroke of tensions from Euro zone will help precious metal to see further upside though $1410 is level one can cap upside for gold prices. World’s largest gold backed ETF, NY’s SPDR holdings slipped to 1,284.973 tonnes vs. 1,288.616 tonnes.

Crude oil gained 2.77% this week end at $91.45 after touching a fresh two year high of $91.91. Crude oil breached its two year broader range of $68 - $87 to settle above magic number $90.Crude oil price is complimented by upbeat U.S economic data like jobless claims at 420k and durable goods order up at 2.4%. Also, cold weather in most countries is fueling the demand. The U.S crude stockpiles are also depleting as crude oil inventories this week came down at (-) 5.3m against as expected (-) 1.1m. The crude oil prices are expected to be in uptrend in coming weeks as OPEC is not likely to increase oil production because emerging market economies are growing with crude prices above $90 and OPEC is also uncertain about conditions to increase o/p in coming year.

 

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03-01-2011 TO 07-01-2011

MARKET WRAP

• Second year of top gains set high hopes for 2011 in commodities
• Silver is hottest commodity in CRB, rising 83 pct
• Gold posts 10th annual gain
• Copper caps 2010 with run of records
• Oil hits 26-month high to end 2010 up 15 pct

Gold gained almost 30% this year and posted its tenth annual gain. Gold ended positive for fifth consecutive week while posting one of the biggest weekly gains to end near its all time of $1431.12. Gold gained $48 this week to end the year on positive note at $1421.15. The surge in gold is due to languishing dollar and uncertain global economic stability. Precious metals outlook in 2011 is positive while Gold will continue to rise in 2011 on the back of strong fundamentals, inflationary pressures in China and abundant liquidity in the global markets complimented by a weaker dollar. Though on a cautious note, holdings of the world’s largest gold backed ETF, New York’s SPDR fell to 1,280.722 tonnes vs. 1,284.973 tonnes, it’s lowest since early June.

Crude oil ended positive for 3rd consecutive week hitting a fresh 28-month high of $92.03 while it gained 15% in 2010 though its weekly gain were comparatively less on smaller than expected drop in crude oil inventories. Crude oil gained $0.57 this week to end at $91.39 on the back of positive U.S economic data like jobless claims which came down at 388k & pending home sales up at 3.5%. The demand of crude in 2011 is expected to rise as the OPEC is not clear over increasing the crude production in coming half year of 2011. The crude inventories for the week came at (-) 1.3m vs. (-) 5.3m against expected at (-) 2.8m. Natural gas lost 20.9% this year while ended the week at $4.392 gaining 7.6% this week. The natural gas storage came at (-) 136b.

 

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10-01-2011 TO 14-01-2011

MARKET WRAP FOR WEEKLY COMMODITY

• U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 103,000 in December
• U.S. jobless rate fell to 9.4 percent from 9.8 percent
• Copper ended down for a fourth consecutive session
• Crude oil ended down 3.7 percent, For the week
• Gold's biggest weekly loss since May on economic optimism

Gold ended the first week of 2011 in red shredding almost 3% on weaker U.S economic data though physical buying from Asian markets is supporting the gold prices. Gold opened the week at $1416.80 and made a weekly low of $1352.60 to end the week at $ 1369.25, down $47.55. Gold ended down to due strength in dollar as ADP private jobs jumped suddenly though weaker U.S jobless claims and Non-farm employment change helped gold to recover. Silver fell more than 6%, its biggest weekly loss in six months as it opened at $30.77 and ended down at $28.65, making a bearish engulfing pattern. The holdings of the world’s largest silver backed ETF, iShares silver trust, slipped to 10892.87 tonnes on Jan 6 vs. 10964.14 tonnes on Dec 14.

Copper ended negative after five weeks shredding $19 or 4.26% to end at $426.75.Though copper is in overall a bullish trend but ended negative after five weeks consecutive gains posting its biggest weekly loss in seven months. Copper gains were erased due to strengthening dollar and expected monetary tightening in major economies like China, one of the top consumers of metals, and United States. The weaker U.S Non-farm employment change at 103k and jobless claims at 409k prompted investors to book profit. A stronger dollar and weak stock markets pulled down by disappointing retail sales also added pressure on base metals. The dollar index ended up at 79.5.

 

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17-01-2011 TO 21-01-2011

MARKET WRAP FOR WEEKLY COMMODITY

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• US markets shut for M.L.K. holiday Monday
• Gold fell to a one-week low and hovered above its lowest in two months
• China hikes bank reserve requirements by 50 basis points
• Copper moves up with equities, better U.S. outlook
• U.S. crude oil marginally up trading at 91.50 $ per berral

Gold ended down for second consecutive week and traded in a stiff range as receding Euro zone debt concerns & China’s monetary tightening to tame inflation weighed on precious metals. Gold opened the week at $1369.95 and touched weekly high of $1393.10 post disappointing U.S jobless claims at six month high though better demand from bond investors for Euro zone’s fragile members like Spain and Portugal debt auction sent Gold to end weak tempering its demand as safe haven. The support for gold was purchases from jewelers and investors on talks of Indian govt. imposing tax on Gold imports and ahead of lunar New Year. The holdings of the world’s largest gold backed ETF, New York’s SPDR gold trust slipped to 1,265.093 tonnes vs. 1,271.467 tonnes while ETF securities London listed Gold fund saw redemptions as well.

Crude Oil gained this week climbing towards its 27 month high to end the week at $91.64. Crude opened the week at $89.48 and rose post steady rise in U.S economic retail sales and unchanged inflation signaling economic recovery on track. The Crude oil inventory for the week saw a larger-than-expected drop, down at (-) 2.2m vs. (-) 4.2m as against expected 0.4m, its biggest 18 month drop while gasoline supplies increased 5.08 million barrels to 223.20 million, the biggest gain since Sept. 2009. Crude oil is not been able to push above $92 but Brent crude nearing $100; we expect bullish trend for Crude oil and can test the level of $93 - $95.

 

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MARKET WRAP FOR WEEKLY COMMODITY :- 24-01 TO 28-01-2011

• Gold notches third weekly loss as safe haven wanes
• Silver prices had earlier hit a seven-week low at $27.10 an ounce
• Copper ends firm as China tightening fears ease
• Aluminium stocks up by more than 6 percent so far this year alone.
• U.S. crude oil ended lower this week trading above 89$

Gold ended down for third consecutive week as its demand as a safe haven fades away with global economic recovery on track. Gold fell to $1342.45 after opening at $1348 while it made a fresh 3 month low of $1342.45. The stronger U.S economic data prompted investors to liquidate from precious metal amid optimism over economic recovery. Jobless claims fell to 404k, homes sales came up at 5.28m while German business climate came up at 110.3, at its 20 years high, too weighed on bullions. The dollar too fell against a basket of currencies while Gold – Silver ratio reached lowest since November. The holdings of the world’s largest gold backed ETF, New York’s SPDR gold ETF fund continue to decline and reached to eight month low.

Copper ended down this week as it is still in a consolidation range of $445-$425. Copper opened this week at $444.03 and shredded more than 3% to end at $429.70. Copper retreated from its fresh high of $445.8 as pressures mounted on base metals due to weaker equities and copper inventories built up at LME inventories supplemented by China’s monetary actions. Copper gained later in the week due to better German IFO business climate up at 110.3 and Dollar at a two month low against Euro and China’s robust Q4 growth keeping demand of base metals intact with steady economic recovery. LME monitored copper stocks added another 3,825 tonnes taking stocks level to 381,750 tonnes; since December 9 stocks have added 32,000 tonnes.

 

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31-01-2011 TO 04-02-2011

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MARKET WRAP FOR WEEKLY COMMODITY

• Tight supply seen sending copper to fresh peaks
• Lead prices are expected to outshine zinc
• Gold posted its biggest gains in eight weeks on Friday
• Oil spiked by more than 4 percent
• silver rose 3.5 percent to $27.82 an ounce.

Gold ended down for fourth week, its longest weekly consecutive decline, and made a new 4-month low of $1307.88. Gold ended down due to upbeat U.S consumer spending data and rising equity markets but edged almost 2% up later in the week due to U.S GDP data at 3.2% against expected 3.5%. Holdings of the SPDR gold trust, world’s largest gold backed ETF, fell to an 8-month low of 1226.546 vs. 1,251.433 tonnes.


Copper ended 1.2% up and recovered almost 3.5% from its weekly low of $420.08 while LME copper ended near its record high of $9781 at $9635. U.S consumer spending at 4 years high & strong exports as economy regained its pre-recession peak supported copper. Copper prices defied the LME inventories being more of speculative bet as stocks added 800 tonnes to 398.075 tonnes, their highest level since September.


Crude oil ended marginally up at $89.42 but gained almost 4% from its weekly low of $85.10 with U.S economy expanding it its fourth quarter sparking hopes for better demand. Brent crude surged and ended near $100 on Egyptian unrest while U.S consumer spending at 4 years high complimented oil prices. The EIA reported crude oil inventories w/w came up at 4.8M vs. 2.6M as against expected at 0.9M

 

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07-02-2011 TO 11-02-2011

MARKET WRAP FOR WEEKLY COMMODITY

• Gold still heads for first weekly gain this year
• US jobs rose less than expected, unemployment rate down
• Egypt's political situation in focus
• Copper soars to new record on U.S. data boost
• Oil falls on unfounded Egypt report

Gold ended up this week gaining $17.21 to end at $1348.90 posting its first weekly gain of the year though it still lacks a crucial catalyst to drive prices. Gold edged up higher as U.S non-farm employment claims came lower than expected at 36K & non-farm productivity came higher at 2.6%. Holdings of the world’s largest gold backed ETF, New York’s SPDR gold trust rose slightly to 1,299.277 tonnes vs. 1227.153 tonnes w/w.


Copper ended 4.13% up backed by healthier demand outlook in 2011 & made a record high of $460.50 to settle at $457.25. Copper ended up as U.S manufacturing recorded largest jobs gain since Aug 1998 while jobless claims came lower than expected at 415K. LME 3 months copper made a record high of $10,100 and ended $120 up at $10,050 tonnes. The LME copper inventories fell by 325 tonnes to 394,150 tonnes.


Crude oil ended down this week at $88.88 and lost nearly 2% from its weekly high of $92.83 on the back of profit booking due to weaker U.S non-farm employment change at 36K, modest recovery in dollar and speculation over Egyptian president stepping down. Brent crude too fell from its peak of $102.48 to end below crucial level of $100 at $99.83. Crude oil inventories w/w came at 2.6M vs. 2.5M as against expected at 2.5M.

 

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14 FEB TO 18 FEB


Market Wrap For Weekly Commodity

• U.S. oil falls to 10-wk low as Mubarak steps down
  
• Gold slips from earlier 3-week high near $1,370/oz
  
• Largest silver ETF posts first inflow since Jan. 24
  
• Copper ends up after Egypt's Mubarak steps down
  
• Copper in LME warehouses fell 225 tonnes, aluminium fell 2,325 tonnes

Gold ended up marginally though its shine faded post economic stability in Egypt, lower U.S jobless claims and better than expected Fed budget balance signaling economic recovery. Gold gained nearly $10 and made weekly high of $1368 to end at $1356.2. The holdings of the world’s largest gold backed ETF, New York’s SPDR too slipped to their lowest level since January to 1,225.526 tonnes vs. 1,226.436 tonnes.

Copper ended negative at $ 455.15 but recovered nearly 5% from $430.9 owing to number of positive economic data and reversal in global equity market. LME copper ended $10 higher at $9,961; near its recent peak of $10,160. Copper is overall bullish and buyers strike in at lower levels. LME copper warehouse fell 225 tonnes to 396,275 tonnes though Shanghai stockpiles rose nearly 10,000 tonnes to 144,197 tonnes.

Crude oil ended down nearly $5 this week to end near its new ten week low of $85.10 at $85.47. Egypt’s president stepping down pushed crude oil prices down, also, on the concerns about potential oil supply disruptions. Though, news of turmoil in Cairo could spread to major oil producers in the Middle East sent Brent crude higher to end above $100. Crude oil inventories came down at 1.9M vs. 2.6M as against expected 2.2M.

 

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21-02-2011 TO 25-02-2011


Market Wrap For Weekly Commodity

• Oil slips in volatile trade eyeing Mideast
  
• Silver rose to a 31-year high on Friday
  
• Gold hit its highest in five weeks on Friday
  
• U.S. market holiday on Monday
  
• Copper up, discounts China tightening move

Gold ended up for third consecutive week posting its best weekly gain since Dec adding $30 to end near its strongest level at $1387.64. The rise in Gold prices was due EU debt jitters, and Middle East tensions. Gold spiked this week after data showed U.S. core consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in Jan, the fastest pace in more than a year, indicating a long period of slowing inflation is over. Also, Chinese inflation had also boosted gold.

Silver hits a new 31 year high of $32.88 gaining nearly 9% this week & 14% this month to end at $32.54. Silver rose as investors took advantage of its percentage fall and turn to it for a hedge as precious metals demand is fuelled due to unrest in ME region. The Gold -Silver ratio dropped to its lowest level in 13 years at around 43.5. While holdings of the world’s largest silver backed ETF, iShares silver trust is up 0.26% to 10,438.56 tonnes.

Copper ended down for 2nd consecutive week at $446.95 after making an all time high of $464.10 as investors discounts China’s recent rate hike. LME 3-month Copper ended at $9860 a tonne, up $58. Though copper ended in its strong territory as investors bet on long term bullish trend as iron ore grades decline, new mines remain scarce and top buyer China grows. LME copper stock is at 6-month high of 407, 925 tonnes adding 725 tonnes.

 

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28-02-2011 TO 04-03-2011

Weekly

Market Wrap For Weekly Commodity

• Gold posts 4th straight weekly gain
• Oil's sharp rally fuels inflation concern
• Saudi Arabia has raised oil output above 9 million barrels per day
• LME copper stocks continue to climb
• Copper posts big gain as energy prices stabilize

Gold ended up for fourth consecutive week gaining nearly $15 to end at $1408.08. Gold is back as a safe haven and its uptrend was on the back of violence in the Mid-East and rising oil prices concerning inflation fears. Though Gold is likely to consolidate between $1410 - $1380 as its uptrend is violated and has left a upper shadow. Holdings of the New York’s SPDR gold trust slipped to a nine month low of 1,211.568 tonnes

Copper ended down for 3rd consecutive week at $444.95 but recovered sharply from its crucial support of $425, nearly 4% due to rising crude oil prices and easing energy prices complimented by weaker dollar, but, on the contrary note LME Copper stocks continue to rise adding another 4,150 tonnes to 416,825 tonnes, up 19% since Dec. The 3 - month LME copper contract shot up $245 or 2.60% to end at $9750 per tonne.

Crude oil breached its multi year highs to end at $98.19, up nearly $9 or 7.54% after making a new two and a half year high of $103.35. Crude oil rallied due to unrest in Mid-East & Libyan crude production could be shut down for a prolonged time that accounts for 2% of global production. Crude oil prices eased down later as Saudi Arab increased oil production by more than 9 million bpd. Crude oil inventories came at 0.8m vs. 0.9m.