Weekly forecast for S&P 500

[SanMiguel]

Well i see the S&P at 119 probably 120 by the end of the week, we got the quantitative easing news coming up at the end of the week so probably low volume throughout the week and towards the end we'll see some more activity and hopefully theres some money to be made

goodluck :cheesy:

sell the news

 

[Pat494]

Seems I was away for longer than I thought.
I see that Pat has sold said soul to the .
Perfect 10 Pat! Congratulations.
I will say 1161 for Friday November 5th.

when the cats away etc.

 

[Pat494]

Well i see the S&P at 119 probably 120 by the end of the week, we got the quantitative easing news coming up at the end of the week so probably low volume throughout the week and towards the end we'll see some more activity and hopefully theres some money to be made

goodluck :cheesy:

Hi,
Welcome
Are we talking about the same S&P ?
Should I see your 119 as 1119 for next Friday ?

 

[robster970]

So I reckon the only thing of importance is the amount of QE2. I reckon it will be greater than $1tr seeing as all Primary Dealers filled in a questionnaire sent to them by the Fed and it's in their interests to pump it up.

Obama? Noise. NFP? Noise.

Lots of short squeezing towards end of week.

1205

 

[Amerf1]

Hi,
Welcome
Are we talking about the same S&P ?
Should I see your 119 as 1119 for next Friday ?

Sorry i was talking about the ETF SPY. but yea i meant 1190 for next friday. probably a major sell off after we hit that level.

Major resistance around the 1200 level and short sellers will be looking to grab an opportunity so we'll wait and see how it goes.

If we dont hit 1190 by Friday then we'll see some more buying the week after it and either way we'll reach 1190 to 1200 very soon

just my opinion what do you think?

 

[Amerf1]

So I reckon the only thing of importance is the amount of QE2. I reckon it will be greater than $1tr seeing as all Primary Dealers filled in a questionnaire sent to them by the Fed and it's in their interests to pump it up.

Obama? Noise. NFP? Noise.

Lots of short squeezing towards end of week.

1205

i like the way you think. 1205 is probably a realistic number and about the short squeezing i totally agree with you because once we pass that 1200 level everyone will be looking to short.

 

[Pat494]

i like the way you think. 1205 is probably a realistic number and about the short squeezing i totally agree with you because once we pass that 1200 level everyone will be looking to short.

They may not wait for 1200 !
To short right down to 1140s
Tuesday will show direction imho

 

[robster970]

i like the way you think. 1205 is probably a realistic number and about the short squeezing i totally agree with you because once we pass that 1200 level everyone will be looking to short.

You should watch Pat - he seems to be in league with lucifer when it comes to predicting the numbers.

 

[SanMiguel]

i like the way you think. 1205 is probably a realistic number and about the short squeezing i totally agree with you because once we pass that 1200 level everyone will be looking to short.

Is there anyone to short squeeze?
Whole market is bullish and put call ratios don't show that either.
We're only going up due to low volume HFT churn.

 

[robster970]

Is there anyone to short squeeze?
Whole market is bullish and put call ratios don't show that either.
We're only going up due to low volume HFT churn.

COT was showing SP as net short by quite a considerable amount. I've not looked at Friday's yet though but can't imagine it's shifted that much. I've typically associated net long/short positions as showing speculative rather than hedged bias.

 

[Amerf1]

Is there anyone to short squeeze?
Whole market is bullish and put call ratios don't show that either.
We're only going up due to low volume HFT churn.

yea volume is low because most people are waiting for the news and i dont expect volume to pick up until the end of the week because we got some news coming up then, and believe me when i tell you its going to be a crazy end to the week because we got the jobs report of friday plus the QE2 and election news so its triple trouble. from there on we'll know where the markets heading for the rest of the month. we'll have to wait and see

 

[SanMiguel]

COT was showing SP as net short by quite a considerable amount. I've not looked at Friday's yet though but can't imagine it's shifted that much. I've typically associated net long/short positions as showing speculative rather than hedged bias.

Any ideas how the bullish percent index is calculated?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX

Large traders are short on the COT but commercials long. I find the COT data on the emini fluctuates quite a lot though even the COT index compared to things like FX and commods though.

 

[robster970]

Any ideas how the bullish percent index is calculated?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX

Large traders are short on the COT but commercials long. I find the COT data on the emini fluctuates quite a lot though even the COT index compared to things like FX and commods though.

I look at SP and not the ES data for exactly that reason SM. I think SP naturally filters out smaller traders that would show up on ES. I use the commercials for SP too which have shown net short for the last few weeks.

I've no idea how the bullish index is derived. I tend to get the raw data for these things and then infer at my leisure.

e2a - I've just realised why some of this might not make any sense. Volumes on NYSE have been low for a long while so I have a suspicion that it is the futures contracts that have been leading the index for some time and hence it is the shorts on SP and to some extent ES who are positioned around this area of consolidation just below 1200 that will get squeezed as a consequence of QE2 causing to go 1200+ next week.

 

[SanMiguel]

I look at SP and not the ES data for exactly that reason SM. I think SP naturally filters out smaller traders that would show up on ES. I use the commercials for SP too which have shown net short for the last few weeks.

I've no idea how the bullish index is derived. I tend to get the raw data for these things and then infer at my leisure.

e2a - I've just realised why some of this might not make any sense. Volumes on NYSE have been low for a long while so I have a suspicion that it is the futures contracts that have been leading the index for some time and hence it is the shorts on SP and to some extent ES who are positioned around this area of consolidation just below 1200 that will get squeezed as a consequence of QE2 causing to go 1200+ next week.

SP globex?
Possible but if you look at the 6month COT index of net longs/shorts it shows commercials short, large traders long, retail somewhere in the middle. Usually when there are major opposites, someone is going to get mashed on soon but you have to take into account the hedging aspect somewhere...maybe more so with commods.

 

[Gaffs1964]

Well done again Pat, I'll go for 1150 for bonfire night. Happy Haloween all

 

[starman45]

They may not wait for 1200 !
To short right down to 1140s
Tuesday will show direction imho

SP500 has support @ 1155

 

[robster970]

SP globex?
Possible but if you look at the 6month COT index of net longs/shorts it shows commercials short, large traders long, retail somewhere in the middle. Usually when there are major opposites, someone is going to get mashed on soon but you have to take into account the hedging aspect somewhere...maybe more so with commods.

CME - http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm

It's listed as 'S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE' and is the $250 contract traded on CME.

I've got data going back to Jan 2008 but it's publicly available anyway.

 

[breadman]

i will go for a range for the week of 1168 to 1206 with a close on friday of 1186.

 

[TRADEFUTURES]

1145

 

[oiltrader81]

I am expecting a bearish week for both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq.

My quantitative models and volatility forecasts are all giving me the same outcome : GO SHORT !!!

Obviously, better than expected news could change everything but I am not seeing any comforting macro news so far ( I do not include QE from the Fed because thats politcs and not finance, how much money the Fed can pump into the system without destroying it?)

Check my website. I post weekly forecasts every weekend on the major markets