Weekly forecast for S&P 500 cash 2011

[Pat494]

For Week Ending Friday 9th December at 1255.2

Name...........Call.........Points.......Direction .....Podium ...…Total
Pat494……….....1261….......13.......….......1………. .. .....1……....….15
wackypete2.....1215........14.................0. .. .. ........0...........14
Gaffs1964.......1200.........13.................0 ... . ..........0..........13
Atilla...............1288........11.............. .1... .............0..........12
dpinpon..........1285...........9............... 1... .............0.......,..10
Av..................1250...........6........... ...1. ...............2...........9
Wt av.............1243............9............... 0.. ... . ........0...........9
Isatrader........1250.............5.............. .1 . ..............2...........8
DonStar..........1223............8....... ........0 . ........ ......0...........8
robster970......1230.............8................0 .. . ............0...........8
VielGeld.........1260.............3.............. .1.................3............7
LuKOs.ro........0000.............6................0 . .... ..........0............6
dc2000...........0000.............3.............. .0.. ... ..........0............3
bodavula........1290..............0............ ..1.................0............1

Isatrader is coming back to good form, but this week's winner is VielGeld . Good one.

 

[isatrader]

Thanks Pat, but I thought I came second this week, as VielGeld's 1260 was 4.81 pts from the closing price and my 1250 was 5.19 pts from the closing price. So VielGeld's pick was slightly closer than my pick?

 

[Pat494]

Thanks Pat, but I thought I came second this week, as VielGeld's 1260 was 4.81 pts from the closing price and my 1250 was 5.19 pts from the closing price. So VielGeld's pick was slightly closer than my pick?

You are quite right !

thanks

 

[VielGeld]

Aww yeah, best week ever!

I'm pretty much flummoxed for next week. Last options expirations week, EU still doing headlines. Getting close to the end of the year, so mutual funds are likely to boost their stakes if they haven't already. Etc.

All I can is that's it's likelier to go up than anything, imo. So gimme 1280, please.

 

[dpinpon]

Right on Viegeld, congrats, a late comer but pushing up hard.
Will this be the week to bust and blast off from the simmetrical triangle. Santa s rally is around the corner, so heading to 1285 for this coming week end.

 

[bodavula]

I believe Weekly SPX is headed to 1288!

 

[Atilla]

1296 please Pat.

Addenda
Here is what I'm basing the call on guys - purely technical on candle sticks. We are also above MAs so no reason for shorting at this moment in time based on Friday's move.

As for 1300 it will be a fight and we could well fly past it or stall below it. But given the news re: Euro is out and the word Chinese funding crises mentioned leads me to think there is more where that came from but it will be released in trunches to keep politicians under pressure whilst the Great German administration leads the chaos back to the good times.

I'm optimistic. Very optimistic - why not it's the festive season...

 

[Pat494]

Just a few pivot fundamental points for next week ( GMT )
Tuesday 1.30 pm US core sales
Thursday 1.30 pm US PPI
............3.00 pm US Philly Fed manufacturing index
Friday 1.30 pm US Core CPI

I got mixed signals for next week which usually means not too much movement. On the whole though down and 1229 looks likely

 

[robster970]

I don't think anything useful came out of the EU summit and it will get digested and priced in this week.

Everybody looking for the Christmas rally - fade the herd.

1207

 

[Pat494]

FX price action has been dominated by the headlines from the EU saying “unable to secure treaty changes with backing of all 27 states and change at 17 states more likely”. EUR and AUD, the two currencies most sensitive to European related headlines, sold off. EURUSD traded down to 1.3282 from 1.3375 while AUDUSD fell sharply to 1.0048 from 1.0205. Asian regional indices are trading I n the red and European stock futures are looking to open broadly lower. Expectations for today’s EU summit has been significantly ratchet down. Overnight, French President Sarkozy stated that the ECB would manage the EFSF and ESM and that European nations would make available €200bn to the IMF. His comments resulted in the marginal uptick in risk appetite. However, there seems to have been little headway in the fiscal integration principle that Merkel and Sarkozy agreed on Monday. Complex question of how sanctions will be enforced and joint debt financing (however Merkel comments have thrown a wet towel on the idea) still remain unanswered.

In a big blow, British Prime Minister David Cameron came out with straight forward language rejecting the German and French amendment to the EU treaty in order to create tighter fiscal control. He stated, "What is on offer isn't in Britain's interests, so I didn't agree to it." Given the conflicting news flow from Europe we are pessimistic we will get any meaningfully agreement from policy makers today. Judging from the price action this morning, clearly, traders are not expecting anything either. In addition even if a proposal is announced markets will have a difficult time interpreting its relevance. On the peripheral, China CPI eases to 4.2% vs. 4.5% exp from 5.5% prior. IP in line at 14.0%, retail sales 17.3% vs. 16.8% exp. But given the market preoccupation with Europe the reaction was muted.

Yesterday's ECB announcements focused largely on the conditions of bank liquidity, were bolder than we had expected. Super Mario Draghi acted boldly, with the lone exception of providing support for Europe through quantitative easy and buying massive amounts of European sovereign debt. In fact, in no uncertain terms, Draghi stated that the ECB would not help bailout Brussels. And his earlier reference that fiscal integration would trigger great involvement from the ECB was completely shot down. It seems that the only way for the ECB to become the lender of last resort, would be will if a full mandate change were made. The effect in the Euro and FX markets are stark. After a sharp rise in risk currencies as Draghi unleashed policy easing and nonstandard measures risk quickly reversed, as it was clear that there would be not ECB funded silver bullet. As was widely expected policy rate was cut by 25bp to 1.00. The banks rationalized that the cut was due to "substantial downside risk" to economic outlook. However, the vote was not unanimous as some members were arguing to hold off, while surprisingly the topic of 50bp never came up. It seems that despite the storm clouds building in Europe, some within the ECB is still completely focused on the fact that inflation remains above the 2.00% upper threshold. The primary objective of the meeting was clearly moving forward with "measures to support bank lending and money markets activity". The ECB announced that they would expand refinancing operations with a maturity of 36 months. The longer duration means that there is less likely to be mismatches between a bank’s assets and liabilities. Given the recent rise in difficulty which some banks have been having when it come to finding funding, this would help them avoid heading to capital markets in inopportune times. In addition the banks announced the broadening of eligible collateral that the ECB would be willing to accept in exchange for borrowing. The central bank also reduced the reserve ratio to 1.0 from 2.0, in essence decreasing the banks funding demand and "will free up collateral and support money market activity." Interestingly, there was no comment on the SMP program but Draghi's continued reference to the spirit of the EU treaty suggested he is skeptical of enlarging the program. So now the focus will be on the EU summit and press conference. The schedule for this is loose with working session commences at 11am Brussels time with working lunch ending at 3pm then a press conference expected in the evening.

Traders should watch for risk to retreat significantly ahead of the weekend and lack of a crystal clear solution emulating from the EU summit.

 

[isatrader]

The 200 day moving average has had three attempts at it and price is butting up against the downtrend line resistance again. The Dollar Index has made a double top with a lower high as has the US 30 year Treasuries which both trade inversely with Equities. So with the Euro mess taking a slightly less prominent role for a day or so as people digest what happened on Friday, I think we could a break up above the 200 day moving average. Which will then change the technical picture somewhat.

So 1300 for me please Pat

 

[DonStar]

I don't think we will break the upside of the 78.6% Fib. If it does break through we could see that SC Rally.

I think we're more likely to consolidate - a little toward the upside.

1261 for me please.

 

[N Rothschild]

1320-1330, bears about to get slaughtered some seriously bullish info lurking in the darkness

 

[wackypete2]

Too high, too fast, euro situation still cr@p.
1225

Peter

 

[N Rothschild]

bears be aware that there is quite literally a powder keg of buy stops above 1270..get above there the stops run all the way to 1330. also after a quick dip below we are back above some good support. then there is what should be the spark to take out those buy stops..which im not telling!

 

[dc2000]

its been a while can I have 1124 for this week please

 

[N Rothschild]

over the next 30 days or so, there is currently a 6.35% chance of a 2std deviation move to the downside, and a 1.04% chance of a 3std dev move. (this changes daily ofcourse)

 

[N Rothschild]

I don't think anything useful came out of the EU summit and it will get digested and priced in this week.

Everybody looking for the Christmas rally - fade the herd.

1207

no but the ECB did something that has been over looked, a 3 year refinancing facility which means eur banks can buy sov debt and post it as collateral for discount rates. wont fix **** but it takes the heat off the banks for now.

 

[Doomberg]

1225 please, i don't think their will be much as of an xmas rally this year

 

[Gaffs1964]

1230 for me please Pat