Watch HowardCohodas Trade Index Options Credit Spreads

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Hmm, and the prem as % of your account is how much, 0.3% or something?

That should be easily calculated from the information I already gave you, but I'll save you the trouble. ;)

.2%. That's pretty much in line with the well known trade-off with credit spreads, i.e. high probability of success against an adverse risk return ratio.
 
Ok, 0.3% not miles off then.

Ok so to get 50%+, you need to trade 250 (50 / 0.2) of these things, and have them all go to zero? Please tell me if I am being dense.
 
Ok, 0.3% not miles off then.

Ok so to get 50%+, you need to trade 250 (50 / 0.2) of these things, and have them all go to zero? Please tell me if I am being dense.

The spread we are talking about is a weekly. $1.90 on a $25 difference in strike prices yields 8.2% on that one spread alone. An unusually high return. I look for around 5% generally. It remains to be seen if Monday brings an opportunity to add to the return with a CALL spread which would not require any additional quarantined funds.

Weeklies normally do not live long enough to roll one of the sides. I've not seen such an opportunity in my limited experience with weeklies.

Monthlies do live long enough to permit rolling. This can boost the return on the quarantined funds quite high. IIRC there was a Nov expiration with a return of over 50% for the 60 days.

According to the summaries in post #465, 32 out of the 55 closed spreads to date were part of Iron Condors with 3 or more spreads during their life.

I'm not sure I've dealt with your concern, though. I don't yet have my Dashboard moved and debugged to make it available to you to do the what-ifs the controls permit. Would a list of each IC and its return help answer your question?
 
howard?

when I'm sober fancy a phone call?

p.s. haven't read ANY of this thread in last while so if there's something going on TERRIBLY SORRY
 
That should be easily calculated from the information I already gave you, but I'll save you the trouble. ;)

.2%. That's pretty much in line with the well known trade-off with credit spreads, i.e. high probability of success against an adverse risk return ratio.

And this yields 10% a month ??? confused...
 
So the 10% a month isn't percentage of your entire account ?

How about the 64.6% with compounding - is that percentage of your whole account?
 
So the 10% a month isn't percentage of your entire account ?

How about the 64.6% with compounding - is that percentage of your whole account?
Perhaps I am confused. Let me reset.

The chart is on the entire account.

The 64.6% is on the entire account.

The .2% represents the spread as a percentage of the entire account, but represents an 8.2% return on funds at risk for the spread by itself.

The review in post #465 represents most of the trades that filled the account for the reporting period ending 31 DEC 2010. There are also credits from trades still open in the account total.

Can you and MR, without confusing me further (obviously easy to do), state clearly what you are trying to tease out of this with the serial questioning?
 
Howard

From my position - I just don't see how things add up.

You are in pre-production mode, small size, yet are somehow compounding? Let's say you trade 1 option on each side - how do you compound that without doubling your size? How do you get the funds to double your size if your trades yield .2% of your account size?

On top of this, you are speaking with the lawyers of a charity because you want to give them your profits which are sizeable. Are you a billionaire & your pre-production mode/small size runs to thousands of contracts?

Then - we have an individual spread that yields .2% of your account size. You trade 2 spreads per index per month - or 6 spreads, plus weeklies. If .2% is your average return, how are you making 10% of your account size every month? How did you suffer a 30% drawdown (presumably of account size) in a month?

as a teacher, you appear to be obfuscating something that is supremely simple - the amount you risk, the amount you earn and the profits you make.

Every time I think I get it, you throw another spanner in the works and I am back to scratching my head.

I am not accusing you of lying - I am just saying I can't relate your per-trade returns to your total account returns, your ability to compound, your pre-production size & the army of lawyers figuring out how to give these huge sums of money to charity.
 
Howard

From my position - I just don't see how things add up.

Let's deconstruct your comments one at a time and using your order, because they represent partial representations of what I have tried to communicate. I say try to communicate, because some of the confusion involves answers I posted specifically in response to your questions. Obviously, my responses did not register (probably my fault) so I'll give it another try.

You are in pre-production mode, small size, yet are somehow compounding? Let's say you trade 1 option on each side - how do you compound that without doubling your size? How do you get the funds to double your size if your trades yield .2% of your account size?

For some time now, I have been in pre-production on weeklies only. In rereading part of the thread, I'm mystified by how I communicated the wrong impression. I tried to make clear that with weeklies in pre-production, I was still able to boost my December performance by two percentage points. I have no understanding of how the idea that my entire account was in pre-production registered with you.

I provided, at your request, a breakdown of weeklies, monthly and quarterlies vs. the indexes I trade. And I pointed out that I trade on a 60 day cycle for monthlies.

I provided, at your request, a breakdown of how I earn more than two credits per series with rolling.

On top of this, you are speaking with the lawyers of a charity because you want to give them your profits which are sizeable. Are you a billionaire & your pre-production mode/small size runs to thousands of contracts?

Did my notes above clear this up for you?

Then - we have an individual spread that yields .2% of your account size. You trade 2 spreads per index per month - or 6 spreads, plus weeklies. If .2% is your average return, how are you making 10% of your account size every month? How did you suffer a 30% drawdown (presumably of account size) in a month?

With rolling happening at the rate shown in the table that I provided at your request, you will note that there are far more spreads per monthly series than just two.

Furthermore, monthlies are on a 60 day cycle. Therefore I am in two series at the same time for the same index.

Lastly, when you asked me about the 30% loss on funds at risk on the one spread and you asked me how that effected my month, clearly there was no 30% draw down in my account. How did you come to that conclusion?

as a teacher, you appear to be obfuscating something that is supremely simple - the amount you risk, the amount you earn and the profits you make.

I have not intentionally obfuscated anything. I've been asked the same question over and over again and have tried to answer it differently rather than louder. I you discover an inconsistency, point it out and I'll clear it up.

I have been reporting every close since I started this thread. Show me where your summaries have any resemblance of what I have reported contemporaneously. I report facts, so it should be able to reconcile.

Every time I think I get it, you throw another spanner in the works and I am back to scratching my head.

Review your questions to me and the answers I gave. That should clear up some of the things you stated that are not correct. If I have not been clear, show me where and I'll fix it.

I am not accusing you of lying - I am just saying I can't relate your per-trade returns to your total account returns, your ability to compound, your pre-production size & the army of lawyers figuring out how to give these huge sums of money to charity.

When my wife exaggerates to this level, I respond that "I've asked you a billion times not to do that." I'm sure you get my point.

No army of lawyers, just one in the firm that represents the charity. He will need to consult another on some issues. Huge is in the eyes of the beholder. The lawyers are needed not for the size but because of some special circumstances.

In summary, you are usually much more careful with your "facts" in your posts. Perhaps you just had a bad day. I'm not offended. Let's get the confusion cleared up.
 
I am not having a bad day, I am just saying you are obfuscating the information.

Surely your platform could just print off a list of trades in the 3 months with percentage returns, right? No-one needs to see the size of your dick, but it sure is tough to tell how hard it is based on the way you present the information.

If you have closed less than 60 trades and your typical return on a spread is .2% of your account, then I am stuck on how you have made more than 60% compounded return on your account in 3 months.

As for 30% loss - that information came from this post, as did the fact that November was in pre-production mode YET your account grew 11.2%.

The one credit spread that had a 30.3% loss happened in Nov. That month my account increased 11.2%. This trade was in pre-production (small money) mode. I was none-the-less disappointed because it was the result of a mistake at entry that I let ride and came back to bite me.

Don't you see the confusion?

So - what exactly is a 30% loss in your statement? 30% loss of the .2% credit you received? 30% loss of the account?

If it's 30% of a .2% credit - how are these .2% credits adding up to such a large return?
 
I am not having a bad day, I am just saying you are obfuscating the information.

And how do you account for your statements that are completely contrary to the my answers to YOUR questions. Not just once, but several times as I mentioned in my post.

No, I don't see the confusion in the post you reproduced. Spell it out for me and the others reading this thread.

Saying I intentionally obfuscate just because you fail to reconcile your questions with my answers does you no service.

Until you deal with the big issues of confusion, the little ones are irrelevant.

I can have this dialog deleted from my journal, but I don't want to. I suggest we take this off line to get it properly resolved.
 
Howard - I didn't say you were intentionally obfuscating. I said you were obfuscating. There is a difference.

Can you explain then how a typical spread earns .2% return, yet you are averaging 10% returns and have compounded over 60% in 3 months?
 
Howard - I didn't say you were intentionally obfuscating. I said you were obfuscating. There is a difference.

Can you explain then how a typical spread earns .2% return, yet you are averaging 10% returns and have compounded over 60% in 3 months?

I have puzzled on this a bit. I think I have some, if not all, of the answer.

You cannot make the deduction you are trying to make with the data you have at hand. All of my reporting has been without reference to the number of options I trade with each spread I report. And I see no reason to do so as the information I provide is on the profitability of the spread as a percentage, not a currency amount.

The only connection I provide between my account size and the spreads is to illustrate the effect of cash reserves and losses on the monthly growth. I was initially reporting more detail on overall account growth until I realized it added no value in understanding my methods.

The .2% number that seems to hold such interest was not provided unsolicited. It came as a result of a question I was asked. And I reported it as one spread (two options) relative to the size of my account as of today. Since the account is larger now than when I opened it, that number (.2%) would have been larger for a smaller size account. Even though weeklies are in pre-production, you cannot make any inference from what I reported regarding the number of options involved.

The compounding result of 64.6% was reported in answer to a question and would not normally be reported.
 
How about we remove all lack of clarity by using some absolute numbers.

Let's say (for example) that you began with $100k in August.. this is now $165k, right?

How many $ do you receive in premium for the typical spread?
 
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And I see no reason to do so as the information I provide is on the profitability of the spread as a percentage, not a currency amount.

Yes - but your percentages are not percentages of account - they appear to be percentages of capital/margin committed to the trade - which is actually pretty meaningless, although it is a larger number. Still trying to put the pieces together H.

A while back, we observed the following about one of your positions.

Per contract risk = $2,500 (difference in strike prices & * 100)
Per contract credit = $160 (net credit * 100).

Now - I could do something similar with AAPL.

Buy 1000 shares of AAPL
Target - 16 cents ($160)
Stop loss 250 cents (-$2500)

Most trades would be winners. A winning run of 50 trades would not be a big surprise.
Each trade would require $80,500 in capital (with 4x leverage) with day trading margins.
Compounding would be tricky - each winning trade would enable you to buy approx 1 additional share.

So - onto your system - we are trying to fill in the blanks.
- We know that a typical trade has rewarded $160 and risked $2500.
- We also now now that a typical trade returns .2% of capital.
- We know there was a 30% drawdown.
- We know you have approx 60 trades under your belt.
- We know that you are averaging 10% per month.
- We know your total return is 62%.

We also know that you want to teach this method, a savvy student will want to crunch the numbers, so it makes sense to have this laid out as clear as possible.

Of course, we also know you consider the onus is on the teacher to ensure his explanations are clear to the students - as you have said many times.

Professor HC - it is not clear :smart:
 
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How about we remove all lack of clarity by using some absolute numbers.

There is absolutely NO good reason why a hypothetical starting balance could not be used.

His comment about having perfectly legitimate posts by DT removed tells me everything I need to know.
 
There is absolutely NO good reason why a hypothetical starting balance could not be used.

His comment about having perfectly legitimate posts by DT removed tells me everything I need to know.

Double negative, you're saying Howard should use a $100k starting balance to illustrate?
 
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