Warren Buffet with charts?

orangetrader

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Basically my background is as follows. I bought my first share and realised my first loss when lastminute floated. I then became a reasonably active investor (not trader) in 2005 and went on to see some gains and but also some serious losses after holding on to some real dogs for far too long (having formed a very sentimental attachment). Anyway 6 months ago I found myself looking for something to occupy my time and decided to pursue trading (for many reasons + long standing fascination) Since then I have gone through numerous books covering technical analysis, trading psychology, money management, trading systems/styles, fundamental analysis/value investing etc…. I then started trading end of Oct/early Nov. So far I’m happy with how things are going. I had a bad break with ROK (I held shares prior to them going into administration) which wiped some of my profits but since then I have got back to a cash positive position (some losers but up by around 10% in 2mths after all losses). So that’s the background.

I would describe my trading style as perhaps swing trading but really it’s fairly broad and discretional e.g. I look for shares which are trending and are at a point where the price movement suggests value from a technical perspective. But then I also apply some fundamental checks i.e. is there a good story and are there any major early warning signals e.g. being over-valued or having too much debt and too little cash.

Anyway to date I am only using TD Waterhouse and a spread bet account for the occasional trade which requires a guaranteed stop. I only place market and stop-loss orders. I have taken the view that at this stage it is better to identify the right share at approx the right time rather than analyse intra-day price movement for the “optimum” price as if I have read the market correctly I will make a profit anyway. I tend to hold for a few weeks on average. Am I missing a trick here – should I spend more time getting the entry point and transaction cost spot-on? Td waterhouse isn’t too expensive (£8.95 per trade at present)

I am very strict about limiting losses and once a threshold has been reached (and my original reason for trading dis-credited) the holding is sold without question. However as time goes by I find myself with shares which are neither making a profit nor realising a loss. Should I hold and give them the benefit of time to see if they turn good? or should I call time and find a more worthy hard working home?

My approach of mixing technical and fundamental analysis – any thoughts? recipe for disaster or the next Warren Buffet with charts? Any opinions/advice would be greatly appreciated.
 
Hi orangetrader. All sounds very rational, and there are many ways to win the game, so there must be countless blends of FA and TA that will work, and countless criteria that can be applied or discounted from both disciplines.

But the big question for an investor (not trader, to use your phrase) is always the same - what will you do in the bear market?
 
Hi Tomorton. I was an investor 4 or 5 years ago but then started buying shares in order to trade/speculate a few months back. I have given this scenario some thought – my current thinking is that whilst in a bear market, you need to be in a sector which is out-performing. On top of this, I would probably adapt my trading style to stocks which are in a range rather trending upwards.
 
Hi Tomorton. I was an investor 4 or 5 years ago but then started buying shares in order to trade/speculate a few months back. I have given this scenario some thought – my current thinking is that whilst in a bear market, you need to be in a sector which is out-performing. On top of this, I would probably adapt my trading style to stocks which are in a range rather trending upwards.

ps I suspect that it isn't quite as simple as this :)
 
Hi Tomorton. I was an investor 4 or 5 years ago but then started buying shares in order to trade/speculate a few months back. I have given this scenario some thought – my current thinking is that whilst in a bear market, you need to be in a sector which is out-performing. On top of this, I would probably adapt my trading style to stocks which are in a range rather trending upwards.


Sorry to be sceptical, it doesn't sound like much of a plan. More along the lines of, '.... and if we do come across some icebergs, we'll just go round them.'
 
@orangetrader - if it ain't broke don't fix it.

If all you are worried about is bear markets, then just use your existing analysis on a long-short basis, either baskets of "long industries" vs "short inductries" or in individual names vs the index. This can yield absolute returns in a south-facing market.

One thing I will suggest though is switching to a discount broker or to spreadbetting with a reputable firm. You will same on commission / tax in the least.
 
But it breaks every 5 years and spends the next 3 years broken. Are we not in the business of making maximum money?
 
But it breaks every 5 years and spends the next 3 years broken. Are we not in the business of making maximum money?

Well... yeah. So if your skill is being good at picking healthy sticks at reasonable prices, keep doing it. Just trade them against the index when the market is going down. You will still make money.
 
@orangetrader - if it ain't broke don't fix it.

If all you are worried about is bear markets, then just use your existing analysis on a long-short basis, either baskets of "long industries" vs "short inductries" or in individual names vs the index. This can yield absolute returns in a south-facing market.

One thing I will suggest though is switching to a discount broker or to spreadbetting with a reputable firm. You will same on commission / tax in the least.

Thanks gecko – is there a discount broker that you would recommend – I currently pay £8.95 p/trade and trade perhaps an average of 20 times per week.
I couldn’t agree more re: if it aint broke then don’t fix it. On one hand I’m fishing for opinion on the other people seem memorised by intra-day trading. Is that because it’s good fun or much more profitable?
 
Hi orangetrader, I do a similar kind of longer term stock trading. Am currently with Selftrade, but tried Etrade, & TD Waterhouse, but found the slippage to be too high and ETFs priced in dollars had a 1.5% fee to convert back to sterling at TD, which I haven’t found at other brokers. I have a thread in the journals section which might help.
 
Basically my background is as follows. I bought my first share and realised my first loss when lastminute floated. I then became a reasonably active investor (not trader) in 2005 and went on to see some gains and but also some serious losses after holding on to some real dogs for far too long (having formed a very sentimental attachment). Anyway 6 months ago I found myself looking for something to occupy my time and decided to pursue trading (for many reasons + long standing fascination) Since then I have gone through numerous books covering technical analysis, trading psychology, money management, trading systems/styles, fundamental analysis/value investing etc…. I then started trading end of Oct/early Nov. So far I’m happy with how things are going. I had a bad break with ROK (I held shares prior to them going into administration) which wiped some of my profits but since then I have got back to a cash positive position (some losers but up by around 10% in 2mths after all losses). So that’s the background.

I would describe my trading style as perhaps swing trading but really it’s fairly broad and discretional e.g. I look for shares which are trending and are at a point where the price movement suggests value from a technical perspective. But then I also apply some fundamental checks i.e. is there a good story and are there any major early warning signals e.g. being over-valued or having too much debt and too little cash.

Anyway to date I am only using TD Waterhouse and a spread bet account for the occasional trade which requires a guaranteed stop. I only place market and stop-loss orders. I have taken the view that at this stage it is better to identify the right share at approx the right time rather than analyse intra-day price movement for the “optimum” price as if I have read the market correctly I will make a profit anyway. I tend to hold for a few weeks on average. Am I missing a trick here – should I spend more time getting the entry point and transaction cost spot-on? Td waterhouse isn’t too expensive (£8.95 per trade at present)

I am very strict about limiting losses and once a threshold has been reached (and my original reason for trading dis-credited) the holding is sold without question. However as time goes by I find myself with shares which are neither making a profit nor realising a loss. Should I hold and give them the benefit of time to see if they turn good? or should I call time and find a more worthy hard working home?

My approach of mixing technical and fundamental analysis – any thoughts? recipe for disaster or the next Warren Buffet with charts? Any opinions/advice would be greatly appreciated.

First let me say welcome to you Orangetrader...

WELCOME

Now I will give my humble thoughts...

Keep things simple.
Be good or better at swing trading before you spend time on day trading.
Entering the market at the right Time/price is important but getting out at the right Time/price is more important.
Decide on the trade before you take it. Once taken don't second guess yourself. (Very Bad)
Don't over look stock and index options. (Very Good)
If your holdings are not moving then it is waisting you time and money if you are a trader and not an investor.
As a trader charts are more important than the news.
Good traders tend to get board because they see the same thing over and over and over again. Waiting for the setup and then once in a trade waiting for an exit. Don't start second guessing your self because you are board and don't start shooting from the hip to see some action.

Hope you have a great Christmas!
 
You're paying away A LOT of money using guanteed stops. I'd suggest you use a normal stop loss.
 
Going back to your basic style, there's nothing irrational about joining an uptrend. Trends are generally more likely to continue than to end on any particular day, especally when supported by the overall market / sector, and your objective is to see prices increase. The exit point would seem to be when you think it's more likley to end than continue.

By the same logic, there can be nothing irrational about joining a downtrend, especially when the overall market / sector is falling. It seems strange reaction to note a falling market but then to seek out the purchases that have not yet started falling.
 
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