Warren Buffet suceeded , 95 % of traders fail

foroom lluzers said:
Show us without hindsight results , how it is done in foresight.It means that you have a prediction model , that every time you enter a trade , it will be profitable .

If it worked , based on objective rules , every one can use that market timing model and everone rich.When do we see this model?

If it is subjective model , then it will work for a small proprtion of traders.
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The problem maybe be in the definition of day trading - not every trade will be profitable (it does not need to be). If timing is off; cut the trade, simple - when your timing is on, milk the position.

That was my point about academics, they want/NEED to be right/correct, they need to prove a model. This is why I say you cant compare the likes of the people you have quoted, as it is irrelevant to day trading (be it successful or unsuccessful).
 
wallstreetwarrior87 said:
The problem maybe be in the definition of day trading - not every trade will be profitable (it does not need to be). If timing is off; cut the trade, simple - when your timing is on, milk the position.

That was my point about academics, they want/NEED to be right/correct, they need to prove a model. This is why I say you cant compare the likes of the people you have quoted, as it is irrelevant to day trading (be it successful or unsuccessful).
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If timing is out cut out the trade , take a loss , then trade goes in your orignal direction without you.You cut out trade , on the follwing two weeks it goes 900 ticks without you.

The lower the time frame , the more overtrading one does , the losses from the need to be right are magnified with
short term overtrading .Traders eventually get caught with mind traps , of closing trades and re-entering trades.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/psy...mind-traps-affecting-traders.html#post2896942

A coin toss works better than market timing , when the human brain is added to the equation , with the need to be right ,magnified into multiple losses on overtrading.
 
Here is the 900 ticks without you

Profitable to be in Nirvana with the 900 ticks:LOL::LOL:
 

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foroom lluzers said:
Show us without hindsight results , how it is done in foresight.It means that you have a prediction model , that every time you enter a trade , it will be profitable .

If it worked , based on objective rules , every one can use that market timing model and everone rich.When do we see this model?

If it is subjective model , then it will work for a small proprtion of traders.
Click to expand...


No method works 100%, but multi-day trend-following is more reliable than most. I share your distrust of subjectivity in trading - but each trader can define their own objective rules for identifying a trend and assessing its strength relative to other trend-following opportunities. Of course, these rules are defined in advance, they have to be. I can't predict what the market will do, but I can predict with 100% accuracy what I will do in response.
 
The probability of market timing are
a)price will continue in direction
b)price will stall
c)price will reverse

This gives a 33% chance of success , to increase these odds requires subjectivity.Markets trend about 20% of the time and spend the other 80% grinding through trading ranges, pullbacks and other counter trend action that tests boundaries.The 33% is limited to 20% of the time of trending , less the mistakes and execution underperformance .

In reality only a small % can time the markets , to time the the markets , one needs to know what is going to happen next.
 
Look at some of the internet sites getting $500,000 a year in advertising/sponsorship from bucketshop brokers , the brokers are paying to get something .The factory of forex traders , is designed to trade , overtrade and to lose to the bucketshops.

Everything on these sites is designed to make brokers rich with spreads incomes , at the expense of retail.The retail is brainwashed with misinformation to trade the wrong way to make money , with little information , except 2600 free systems.It is lambs to the slaughter.

All the mugs will pay for the little information of price action courses . yet the site will make $1m a year from it , leaving the lambs without the important information.In the end these buyers will end up in the 95% , either with or without the free information about price action.

Trying to build on the Warren Buffet strategy , will give the little guys an edge and profitable trading.The fake gurus on internet sites will lead you to the slaugther house.
 
foroom lluzers said:
The probability of market timing are
a)price will continue in direction
b)price will stall
c)price will reverse

This gives a 33% chance of success , to increase these odds requires subjectivity.Markets trend about 20% of the time and spend the other 80% grinding through trading ranges, pullbacks and other counter trend action that tests boundaries.The 33% is limited to 20% of the time of trending , less the mistakes and execution underperformance .

In reality only a small % can time the markets , to time the the markets , one needs to know what is going to happen next.
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Your logic's faulty. The existence of three outcomes doesn't automatically mean each has an equal probability of occurring. Otherwise, there'd be a 50% chance of being knocked over whenever we crossed the road.

Trends don't need to be the prevailing behaviour of a market in order to be usable. The one thing that's true about trends is that once established they tend to continue. But, as one trend fails, switch to another one.

Nobody knows what's going to happen next with 100% accuracy but 100% is not needed in order to make a profit.

Overall, I guess you're just being argumentative to stimulate debate as your points are otherwise moronic.
 
tomorton said:
Your logic's faulty. The existence of three outcomes doesn't automatically mean each has an equal probability of occurring. Otherwise, there'd be a 50% chance of being knocked over whenever we crossed the road.

Trends don't need to be the prevailing behaviour of a market in order to be usable. The one thing that's true about trends is that once established they tend to continue. But, as one trend fails, switch to another one.

Nobody knows what's going to happen next with 100% accuracy but 100% is not needed in order to make a profit.

Overall, I guess you're just being argumentative to stimulate debate as your points are otherwise moronic.
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Back tests have revealed , markets are too efficient to provide edge opportunities , the opportunities are subjective .There are many computers exploting the little opportunities in forex.Now is the rise of the computer-driven investing, or funds that use complex mathematical models to bet on markets.

BTW Warren Buffet does not trade trends , he does not try to time the markets.

Trends are mostly visible in hindsight , most of the time.Sometimes you can spot them , forex is not very trendy.
 
foroom lluzers said:
Back tests have revealed , markets are too efficient to provide edge opportunities , the opportunities are subjective .There are many computers exploting the little opportunities in forex.Now is the rise of the computer-driven investing, or funds that use complex mathematical models to bet on markets.

BTW Warren Buffet does not trade trends , he does not try to time the markets.

Trends are mostly visible in hindsight , most of the time.Sometimes you can spot them , forex is not very trendy.
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I don't care about back-test results, since in practice edges exist.

I don't pay regard to what Warren Buffett does or how he does it, since its unlikely to be what I (or any other private retail trader) would do or how we would do it.

Trends are perhaps the most recognisable and reliable chart patterns. I don't know anything about intra-day Forex trends but longer-term its a better field than the majority of alternatives.

For pity's sake we all know this stuff. Do you actually trade or do you invest or do you just run a campaign against trading and trading training vendors?
 
tomorton said:
I don't care about back-test results, since in practice edges exist.

I don't pay regard to what Warren Buffett does or how he does it, since its unlikely to be what I (or any other private retail trader) would do or how we would do it.

Trends are perhaps the most recognisable and reliable chart patterns. I don't know anything about intra-day Forex trends but longer-term its a better field than the majority of alternatives.

For pity's sake we all know this stuff. Do you actually trade or do you invest or do you just run a campaign against trading and trading training vendors?
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Edges exist subjectively for a small proportion of traders , these traders can identify edges.

I do half of both , half trade-half invest , but now I can see all the wrong about the trading industry , that is creating the 95% .I am just comparing the rest of the trading industry , with the 5% Warren Buffet style of succesful trading.

It is amazing when you can see , the blind leading the blind.:LOL::LOL:
 

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cantagril said:
Again, just being curious: what were you hoping to accomplish with your earlier demo account postings when you also have a real one?
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To show this stockmarket indices longs strategy can be successful on shorter term , giving approximate idea of how to trade with options .These are sample trades to give you an idea , how to do it.
 
cantagril said:
Out of idle curiosity: is this still with your demo account at IG as per your earlier screenshots or are you trading for real now?
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the question is.was fl trying to pull the wool over our eyes by making believe that he was really trading a live account;)-
 
itspossible said:
the question is.was fl trying to pull the wool over our eyes by making believe that he was really trading a live account;)-
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You must be focussed on live accounts , with clear strategy , so I am working on removing the snake oil of market timing (my head is full of thoughts that are put in it about market timing ).In real time all these false beliefs become reality ,when you subconcious mind takes over your trading.

The problem with 95% is they can not accept the truth of how simple and easy trading is.They must be clever like clever monkeys , and try to make trading complex .Then they end up on internet sites telling the world , they failed at trading and trading is about "sitting infront of a screen 24 hours a day trying to time the market to make money".

You ask them why , they tell you , they say they read it on the internet it works!Their Guru never traded a live account , but his entire strategy of making money from students relies on the the world believing " maket timing works".Warren buffet does time the market on triple screen method(from a mentor educator) , his mother was a snake oil merchant , so Warren Buffet learnt how to use snake oil.

2500 strategies , promoted by forex bucket shops sponsoring "failure of new trader" , encouraging market timing .Get a life!
 
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