dr.blix
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Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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The current trend is still down until its negated. If you are placing longs on pull backs you should agressively move stops to cover off any profits. I took 7 points on that pull back although as you said there was potential 15.
Kaisen:
You didn't actually miss the move, the retracement was the bit afterwards. The reason it took long to retrace was because the pattern took long to form, the longer the formation, the longer it takes to verify the pattern. Also on the drop, the technicals were a screaming sell: The 9/26MA cross, it failed to match the previous high, it looked like it was forming a H&S (the volume decreased all the way through the formation which is a great verifier of the HS), Divergence on the stochastic and RSI, bearish engulfing pattern at the top which of course (if you saw the daily chart i posted earlier) has massive resistance and is the first time it has met it, there was a break of the channel eventually (in case you didnt get in at ~65), the hourly/4hourly charts we're also favourable. When you have things lining up like that, you put the house on it!! The target of 10 was from the H&S pattern but I suspected a further drop, perhaps to the 80 level (where i'd buy the hell out of it!).
That any help?
You didn't actually miss the move, the retracement was the bit afterwards. The reason it took long to retrace was because the pattern took long to form, the longer the formation, the longer it takes to verify the pattern. Also on the drop, the technicals were a screaming sell: The 9/26MA cross, it failed to match the previous high, it looked like it was forming a H&S (the volume decreased all the way through the formation which is a great verifier of the HS), Divergence on the stochastic and RSI, bearish engulfing pattern at the top which of course (if you saw the daily chart i posted earlier) has massive resistance and is the first time it has met it, there was a break of the channel eventually (in case you didnt get in at ~65), the hourly/4hourly charts we're also favourable. When you have things lining up like that, you put the house on it!! The target of 10 was from the H&S pattern but I suspected a further drop, perhaps to the 80 level (where i'd buy the hell out of it!).
That any help?
Outa my gourd
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For those who don't know yet, Michael Jackson's dead:-0 Wow, wasn't expecting that!
Absolutely agree - I actually don't buy pullbacks anymore.
Catching a pullback for a short profit, or trying to call a bottom and the beginning of a next trend or a full reversal, can be very profitable if you get it right - I can't however with the method I use, and have lost enough money trying so I'm sick of it.
I can consistently win taking a piece from an existing trend and using pullbacks for entries rather than buying them. My losses are small because it becomes very evident very quickly if I was wrong.
If I was to buy a pullback, and found myself in profit as you did just there, I would have the stop right up behind me.
kaisen
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Thats great thanks. I will go over it and digest it all. Many thanks for your time to explain.
BTW - does the US opening ever affect your views from am analysis?
Nah, he's hanging out with Jim Morrison and Bob Marley in Miami...
Dr B. Ive attached a chart for you to see, your stop should have been slightly below 4220. Ive seen this scenario happen loads of times where there is a drop of equi distance after a pull back. A good entry would have been at 4212 but it didnt actually get there this time.
Attachments
Subject: ECB SOURCES ON COVERED BONDS
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Sources: ECB To Let Nat'l CBanks Do Most Covered Bond Buying>
SOURCES:SOME CBANKS OPPOSE DISCLOSING DETAILS, CITING MKT EDGE
SOURCES: SOME BIG NAT'L BANKS WANTED TO LIMIT ECB PURCHASES
SOURCES: NOT CLEAR WHETHER MATURITIES REALLY 5 YEARS OR LESS
SOURCES: BBB THE LOWEST RATING BUT MOSTLY AAA TO BE TARGETED
SOURCES: CBANK BOND BUYS ALLOCATED BY PCT OF ECB CAPITAL HELD
SOURCES: SMALLER CBANKS SEEN POOLING RESOURCES TO BUY BONDS ..................................................................................................................
PARIS (MNI) - The European Central Bank will buy directly only a small fraction of the E60 billion worth of covered bonds expected to be purchased by Eurosystem central banks over the next year, well-informed monetary sources told Market News International.
The sources said the ECB would buy 8%, or E4.8 billion, of the total amount targeted for purchase, with the eurozone national central banks acquiring the remaining 92%, or E55.2 billion.
The national central bank purchases will be allocated according to the percentage of ECB capital stock held by each bank, they said.
The bond purchase program, first announced in May by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, is expected to begin in early July and continue for one year. ECB officials have said there is no plan thus far to increase the amount of covered bonds purchased, though they have not flatly ruled out such a move.
They have promoted the planned purchases as a policy intended to help jump start bank lending and further ease liquidity conditions in
the euro area money market.
One senior source said the ECB and national banks will "buy a little bit of everything" with ratings of BBB or above, "though the majority of the purchases will be concentrated on paper with ratings of AAA."
The ECB has said that the bonds eyed in the purchase program would overlap with those posted as collateral in its regular refinancing auctions. But another source said it may not work out that way in practice, at least in some countries.
"You will want to take the bonds with the best ratings from each, so the instruments bought will not be the same as those used as collateral, as those tend to be shorter, for example 1 week, or 1 month," this official said.
A third source said that he was not personally aware of any concrete agreement yet to limit the bond program to maturities of 5
years or less, despite reported comments earlier this week by ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny specifying just such a limit on
maturities.
Nowotny's comments appear to contradict remarks made at the June 4 ECB press conference by Trichet, who said the bond buying program would target securities with maturities ranging from 3 to 10 years.
It should be noted, however, that Trichet was speaking three weeks before Nowotny. Furthermore, some technical details of the bond purchase program have yet to be settled, even though the purchases could start within a week or so.
The third source worried that limiting maturities on bond purchases in the way suggested by Nowotny would exclude a huge segment of the secondary market without significantly reducing risks.
The same official said that initially, the ECB wanted to buy a much larger proportion of the covered bonds. But some of the larger national central banks wanted to keep the ECB's share as small as possible, he
said. "The ECB launches the program so as to influence that particular
market segment," he said. Those central banks objecting to large-scale ECB participation argued that, "if the ECB were also heavily involved in executing the program, there might be a conflict of interest," this source said.
"The national central banks, on the other hand, can act as regular market players just as private banks," he noted.
The official added that at some of the national central banks, the market investment teams are resistant to disclosing details of the bond purchase program, because they fear that doing so would put them at a competitive advantage vis a vis other market participants. That could make it "close to impossible" for the central banks to have an effective investment strategy, he said.
The national central banks generally do not provide specific details of their financial investments, including covered bonds.
But sources said the national central banks are on board with the
program. "Each country wants to participate and will if they have the instruments," the second source said.
The senior source said that some of the smaller central banks in the eurozone are likely to pool their resources in order to buy their share of the covered bonds.
"In some countries where the covered bond market is limited, we expect banks to issue new bonds," he said, noting that this has already begun to happen since the ECB announced the plan to buy covered bonds.
This official downplayed concerns that the covered bond program could cause distortions in the market.
"No, the purchase program is widely distributed and covers only 3% to 5% of the market," he said. He added that it "could influence on the margins." However, "we don't want to be a substitute for the market, but only to get the market going again," he said.
"In short, we are not doing an American operation."
Auto forwarded by a Rule
Sources: ECB To Let Nat'l CBanks Do Most Covered Bond Buying>
SOURCES:SOME CBANKS OPPOSE DISCLOSING DETAILS, CITING MKT EDGE
SOURCES: SOME BIG NAT'L BANKS WANTED TO LIMIT ECB PURCHASES
SOURCES: NOT CLEAR WHETHER MATURITIES REALLY 5 YEARS OR LESS
SOURCES: BBB THE LOWEST RATING BUT MOSTLY AAA TO BE TARGETED
SOURCES: CBANK BOND BUYS ALLOCATED BY PCT OF ECB CAPITAL HELD
SOURCES: SMALLER CBANKS SEEN POOLING RESOURCES TO BUY BONDS ..................................................................................................................
PARIS (MNI) - The European Central Bank will buy directly only a small fraction of the E60 billion worth of covered bonds expected to be purchased by Eurosystem central banks over the next year, well-informed monetary sources told Market News International.
The sources said the ECB would buy 8%, or E4.8 billion, of the total amount targeted for purchase, with the eurozone national central banks acquiring the remaining 92%, or E55.2 billion.
The national central bank purchases will be allocated according to the percentage of ECB capital stock held by each bank, they said.
The bond purchase program, first announced in May by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, is expected to begin in early July and continue for one year. ECB officials have said there is no plan thus far to increase the amount of covered bonds purchased, though they have not flatly ruled out such a move.
They have promoted the planned purchases as a policy intended to help jump start bank lending and further ease liquidity conditions in
the euro area money market.
One senior source said the ECB and national banks will "buy a little bit of everything" with ratings of BBB or above, "though the majority of the purchases will be concentrated on paper with ratings of AAA."
The ECB has said that the bonds eyed in the purchase program would overlap with those posted as collateral in its regular refinancing auctions. But another source said it may not work out that way in practice, at least in some countries.
"You will want to take the bonds with the best ratings from each, so the instruments bought will not be the same as those used as collateral, as those tend to be shorter, for example 1 week, or 1 month," this official said.
A third source said that he was not personally aware of any concrete agreement yet to limit the bond program to maturities of 5
years or less, despite reported comments earlier this week by ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny specifying just such a limit on
maturities.
Nowotny's comments appear to contradict remarks made at the June 4 ECB press conference by Trichet, who said the bond buying program would target securities with maturities ranging from 3 to 10 years.
It should be noted, however, that Trichet was speaking three weeks before Nowotny. Furthermore, some technical details of the bond purchase program have yet to be settled, even though the purchases could start within a week or so.
The third source worried that limiting maturities on bond purchases in the way suggested by Nowotny would exclude a huge segment of the secondary market without significantly reducing risks.
The same official said that initially, the ECB wanted to buy a much larger proportion of the covered bonds. But some of the larger national central banks wanted to keep the ECB's share as small as possible, he
said. "The ECB launches the program so as to influence that particular
market segment," he said. Those central banks objecting to large-scale ECB participation argued that, "if the ECB were also heavily involved in executing the program, there might be a conflict of interest," this source said.
"The national central banks, on the other hand, can act as regular market players just as private banks," he noted.
The official added that at some of the national central banks, the market investment teams are resistant to disclosing details of the bond purchase program, because they fear that doing so would put them at a competitive advantage vis a vis other market participants. That could make it "close to impossible" for the central banks to have an effective investment strategy, he said.
The national central banks generally do not provide specific details of their financial investments, including covered bonds.
But sources said the national central banks are on board with the
program. "Each country wants to participate and will if they have the instruments," the second source said.
The senior source said that some of the smaller central banks in the eurozone are likely to pool their resources in order to buy their share of the covered bonds.
"In some countries where the covered bond market is limited, we expect banks to issue new bonds," he said, noting that this has already begun to happen since the ECB announced the plan to buy covered bonds.
This official downplayed concerns that the covered bond program could cause distortions in the market.
"No, the purchase program is widely distributed and covers only 3% to 5% of the market," he said. He added that it "could influence on the margins." However, "we don't want to be a substitute for the market, but only to get the market going again," he said.
"In short, we are not doing an American operation."
Can someone offer any opinion on what will happen monday tuesday next week with it being the end of the 2nd quarter? Will the market bounce upwards like it does at the end of most significant time frames with people getting rid of contract shorts and profit taking on shorts in a negative period?
Outa my gourd
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That'd be a jamming session! The more I read, the more I'm coming to the conclusion that I'm last to know this. No change there then :whistling
RIP Jacko - mad as a box of frogs, but quite a musician.
Great question hughar;
The opinion around the office and in other institutions (and hence my own opinion since i'm relatively new to the game!) is that the markets will go up until tuesday, S&P target of 930 before a sharp downwards correction in July. Now some of the reasoning i've heard is a bit conspiracy theory-esque but friends close to the matter say that since Goldman are pretty much the only big traders left in NY (since Lehman and Bear went last year), they have always had a habit of proping up markets at quarter close if it's been bad or a reversal may be near since they can then sell more to their clients and make more money. This would mean a rally up until tuesday.
Now I don't ever buy into those types of theories, but from a technical standpoint, S&P to hit 930 and then a correction (to dare I say 600?!!) to 800.
Kaisen: The way the equities work (just from experience, not gospel!) is that pre-14:30, the S&P futures follow the FTSE/DAX and after that it's the other way around. The main thing to remember though is that whatever happens in the US affects everyone, it's just the way the worlds money/finance is constructed. If america are ****ed, we all are!
The opinion around the office and in other institutions (and hence my own opinion since i'm relatively new to the game!) is that the markets will go up until tuesday, S&P target of 930 before a sharp downwards correction in July. Now some of the reasoning i've heard is a bit conspiracy theory-esque but friends close to the matter say that since Goldman are pretty much the only big traders left in NY (since Lehman and Bear went last year), they have always had a habit of proping up markets at quarter close if it's been bad or a reversal may be near since they can then sell more to their clients and make more money. This would mean a rally up until tuesday.
Now I don't ever buy into those types of theories, but from a technical standpoint, S&P to hit 930 and then a correction (to dare I say 600?!!) to 800.
Kaisen: The way the equities work (just from experience, not gospel!) is that pre-14:30, the S&P futures follow the FTSE/DAX and after that it's the other way around. The main thing to remember though is that whatever happens in the US affects everyone, it's just the way the worlds money/finance is constructed. If america are ****ed, we all are!
kaisen
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