Commentary by Kathy Lien: Dollar Rallies on Stronger U.S. Retail Sales
Stronger than expected consumer spending in the month of September helped to lift the dollar against all of the major currencies. Overall retail sales fell 1.5 percent last month, the sharpest decline since December 2008. The drop was less than the market's 2.1 percent forecast but the headline number is actually very close to consensus if you factor in the 0.5 percent downward revision to last month's data. Yet the dollar still rallied because core retail sales doubled expectations with only a mild revision to the prior month's report. Excluding a drop in car sales, consumer spending increased 0.5 percent compared to 1.0 percent in August.
The details of the report indicate that consumers spent more on furniture, health and personal care which suggests that the recovery in the housing market is filtering into other parts of the economy. Gas station receipts also increased, albeit as at slower pace. Back to school sales has kept demand for clothing positive for the past 3 months. As one would expect, the dollar raced higher against the Japanese Yen on the heels on the report. However our readers should not be surprised by the better than expected retail sales number since we talked at length yesterday about the rise in the ICSC chain store sales report and stronger results from individual retailers. If you look beyond the drop in spending that is related to the expiration of the cash for clunkers program, the number is good and indicates that the U.S. economy is still on the road the recovery.
The only problem is that based upon the retail sales reports in July, August and September, consumer spending provided less contribution to GDP in the third quarter than in the second quarter. Meanwhile import prices continued to rise, reflecting lower deflationary pressures. For the Federal Reserve, the latest economic reports are encouraging but not enough for them to pull the trigger on an exit strategy.
This afternoon, the Fed will release the minutes for their most recent monetary policy. Although there is a risk of surprisingly hawkish comments, given the latest speeches from Fed officials, we do not believe this is likely. Last week, Bernanke’s comment about the improving economic outlook helped to lift the dollar but FOMC member Kohn’s warning today that the recovery will subdued suggests that Fed officials really have no intention of unloosening monetary policy anytime soon.