Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[SuddenDeath]

Morning Lapalabra.. filled gap. If high 4493 remains..

Morning SD - outlook? Now beneath yesterdays close.

... look for a move below 4440 .internally market is very strong, but we have unfilled gaps during this 7 day up move, FT.com says its 4 years since FTSE has put together a so many consecutive up days,

 

[ian23]

The bigest problem with not following ones stop and waiting it out has to be loss of opportunity, having your cash in a crappy possition and then having to wait gets you in a state where you hope and wish and you end up only making bad calls in one direction based on that. It has happened to me more times than i can remember taking swing trades and believe it or not i am much more desiplened when i scalp for 10 or 20 points. It may be because with a swing i will have to take a much larger loss and my account can not afford to do so at the moment. So small account = small and nerve recking trades and big account = more relaxing swing trades.

 

[lapalabra]

you're absolutely spot on. i make some shonky decisions at the best of times, but i'd just got up, so i don't think that helped. got nervous when it hit my 2 res levels @ 733-35, saw my 125 MA sitting right on my 735 too and just panicked when i saw a little bounce.

in my defence i did at least move my stop to BE first...(for about 10 seconds!! :-0)

AAAARGH...WHEN WILL I START TO BE A GOOD TRADER?!!

i shall make a shrine in front of my computer and sacrifice chickens to the FTSE gods...that'll sort it

For a start, don't trade when you've just got up

Have ample time, create and ordered and calm environment, be alert and carry out SD's dog exercises - whatever creates positive expectation and a clear mind.

This *is* work, remember?

**added to short position with half a position as per money management rules @ pivot again, 4474 - will exit first position on making lower low on 10M**

 

[lapalabra]

**added to short position with half a position as per money management rules @ pivot again, 4474 - will exit first position on making lower low on 10M**

75% closed @ 4460 for +14, remainder target still S1 @ 4447

 

[wallstreet1928]

I have been waiting for ages for a break out of this trend line...........

nice example of a bear flag

Dentist Barclays looking to threaten 300 level ...............my short was triggered at 307.5..

Any downside targets in mind Dentist?

 

[dr.blix]

nice 50% retracement to 476, looks like it's wanting to drop to the next channel floor @ 449

 

[lapalabra]

... look for a move below 4440 .internally market is very strong, but we have unfilled gaps during this 7 day up move, FT.com says its 4 years since FTSE has put together a so many consecutive up days,

Do unfilled gaps always get filled at some later time, or is there a time limit before they can be discounted?

I've been looking at your ranges SD, esp with relations to what % of that range the floor pivots represent to manage scaling out of /adding to positions

 

[lapalabra]

nice 50% retracement to 476, looks like it's wanting to drop to the next channel floor @ 449

Yeah ol' 50%, saw that too - reinforced my idea price just wanted a retracement and to give a top line to its emerging channel. Was nice for an entry though if anyone missed the first down move.

Have my pivot @ 446 (tomato, tomato)

 

[dr.blix]

be alert and carry out SD's dog exercises

aaah, so that's what you've all been doing ey? making good calls and generally knowing what you're doing and it's all down to that german shepherd.

well you could have told me sooner.

i've been doing the jane fonda workout, no wonder things are going t!ts up.

 

[lapalabra]

Price was quite congested around this area yesterday ('45 to '54) and I need to go out and find accommodation for one of my staff coming over on Saturday - therefore closing this @ 4456, +18

See you all in a little bit....good trading all

 

[Geofract]

aaah, so that's what you've all been doing ey? making good calls and generally knowing what you're doing and it's all down to that german shepherd.

well you could have told me sooner.

i've been doing the jane fonda workout, no wonder things are going t!ts up.

LMAO!

 

[Geofract]

Perhaps you would be better off being a comedian DB!?

 

[dr.blix]

Perhaps you would be better off being a comedian DB!?

have you been talking to my bank manager?! :-0

that's exactly what he said yesterday when i asked to extend my overdraft...






cheesy

 

[Manya1983]

I think flavour of the day is risk aversion.

I adjusted my overnight CAD/JPY trade for a stop loss at 4,500 last night and as luck would have it priced reached 4501 stopping me out and taking out my £5 a point wager! Needless to say price went back down after hitting this 50% retractment. I've re-opened the same short position but now at 50p a point instead! Although I'm still happy with the pips banked from 4,600 to 4,500.

Today I've also gone short GBP/USD.

 

[papak]

The bigest problem with not following ones stop and waiting it out has to be loss of opportunity, having your cash in a crappy possition and then having to wait gets you in a state where you hope and wish and you end up only making bad calls in one direction based on that. It has happened to me more times than i can remember taking swing trades and believe it or not i am much more desiplened when i scalp for 10 or 20 points. It may be because with a swing i will have to take a much larger loss and my account can not afford to do so at the moment. So small account = small and nerve recking trades and big account = more relaxing swing trades.

Can't you take smaller positions when you do swing trading?

 

[papak]

Good morning everyone,

Just behind the screen and catching up what has happened.
Here is a chart of what FTSE did. This is very interesting. Yesterday we did a double top intraday and obviously a double top from the May highs.
Then we went down and broke the up trendline (taken from low on the 14th July).
This morning it came back up to the trendline and did a 78% retrace of the down move. We have now broken down lower so I think we have a lot more downside coming.

The 78% retracement is a very powerful tool. Most people work with 38% and 61% fib retracements, but when you study it you will see the 78% a lot.

 

[ian23]

The problem is that on the higher time frame i need to have a larger stop loss and when it comes to that i struggle with taking such a big loss due to limited funds in my account, had i more funds it would not be such a big problem but mentaly it will still make me want to wish and hope and eventially hold. Most entries i get away with and make some good money but once in a blue moon like this here rally i just fail to stick to the stop loss and then it becomes ever so harder to take the loss as it becomes substantially more than you can afford to lose, hence you wish and hope and pray for a retracement or reversal of some kind to get back to your original stop which this time around you are not affraid to take because of the pain you have taken so far. But besides this while all this is going on you can not consentrate on any other trade you wish to make and end up making a few other bad trades aswell.

 

[Geofract]

Only just seen this so quick reply. On H4 (I'm on UWC MT4 right now not IG, not sure if exactly the same?), intermediate term trend is up , short term trend (bias) is down, confirmed by the break of that inside bar @18:00 , here's a pic. If the last bar takes out the lows we got a short term high (hence the arrows)

P.S. Its late there may be errors in that chart ?

Thanks Masnachu for taking the time to put that together.

I have H4 trend bias confirmed as short this morning, on the breach of point 4 on both our charts. H1 bias short was confirmed yesterday – I will post a chart if anyone’s interested.

What we’re talking about is essentially a 12345 count, with the breach of point 4 being confirmation of bias change – I’m sure you know that masnachu, but I am writing it down for those who are interested.

Importantly your H4 chart gives a long bias confirmation of the move up from the 13th way before mine. This seems to be because of time settings. I am using PRT, which is set to GMT +1, and my bars look different to yours, consequently I am getting late confirmation on bias changes. This is what I was alluding to in my earlier post #9134, but seems the problem could be Prorealtime.

As FX is not centralised I am not sure what time zone settings should be.

Watching FTSE for H1 bias change to short, but it has yet to happen. Not that that would concern anyone trading 10min charts.

Hope that makes sense.

 

[papak]

I think flavour of the day is risk aversion.

I adjusted my overnight CAD/JPY trade for a stop loss at 4,500 last night and as luck would have it priced reached 4501 stopping me out and taking out my £5 a point wager! Needless to say price went back down after hitting this 50% retractment. I've re-opened the same short position but now at 50p a point instead! Although I'm still happy with the pips banked from 4,600 to 4,500.

Today I've also gone short GBP/USD.

Ok you probably figured this out yourself by now, but why o why put a stop at a round figure of 4,500?? Put it at 4505 or something, a few points away form that level (dont even put it at 4501 or 4502 because thats wehere everybody puts their stop and stophunters will go for it!

 

[SuddenDeath]

GSK reports 12.30 could this move markets?