we've all been there Dr Blix and its tough. I lost 50 points for two days straight some time ago now, at £10 per point - you do the math! Re-evaluated everything and came back much fresher. I took 2 months off in fact. But sometimes you have to learn the hard way. I can confidently say that will never happen to me again.
Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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dr.blix
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hi chaps,
thanks for your feedback. i really appreciate the advice.
good idea stefan, i think i'll lurk about, attempt some analysis now and then and try and pic up more education.
yeah a good strategy would be an idea leo, i'm a bit haphazard at the mo!
thank you dentist, it's very kind of you to offer to help. i think the next time i get ready to try the FTSE again i'll def do that, put up my setups for appraisal, that would be great actually as i have a huge problem with impulsively firing off trades with no reasoning. i think my main problems are psychological than tech analysis, being impatient, lacking discipline, that sort of stuff. i don't want to quit at all, i've just lost my objectivity and i'm getting tangled up with everything. i'm actually doing worse now than when i started last year with absolutely no knowledge at all!
very wise words there lapa thanks. i'm not chucking everything in, i just think i can't see the wod for the trees at the mo. feeling like the more i take on board, the worse my calls are getting, even when i call a move that happens, i rarely capitalise on it myself!
yeah bennie, i'm taking losses constantly i think that calls for re-evaluation.
thanks again everyone for your feedback. i'll still be around babbling inanities, but i'll hold off opening positions until i have a few things ironed out.
oh, and thanks WS for creating this environment. it's been a great help to have contact with people doing the same stuff, only a lot better!
good luck all for 2moro.
thanks for your feedback. i really appreciate the advice.
good idea stefan, i think i'll lurk about, attempt some analysis now and then and try and pic up more education.
yeah a good strategy would be an idea leo, i'm a bit haphazard at the mo!
thank you dentist, it's very kind of you to offer to help. i think the next time i get ready to try the FTSE again i'll def do that, put up my setups for appraisal, that would be great actually as i have a huge problem with impulsively firing off trades with no reasoning. i think my main problems are psychological than tech analysis, being impatient, lacking discipline, that sort of stuff. i don't want to quit at all, i've just lost my objectivity and i'm getting tangled up with everything. i'm actually doing worse now than when i started last year with absolutely no knowledge at all!
very wise words there lapa thanks. i'm not chucking everything in, i just think i can't see the wod for the trees at the mo. feeling like the more i take on board, the worse my calls are getting, even when i call a move that happens, i rarely capitalise on it myself!
yeah bennie, i'm taking losses constantly i think that calls for re-evaluation.
thanks again everyone for your feedback. i'll still be around babbling inanities, but i'll hold off opening positions until i have a few things ironed out.
oh, and thanks WS for creating this environment. it's been a great help to have contact with people doing the same stuff, only a lot better!
good luck all for 2moro.
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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The Bond Bulletin By Carley Garner
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/mon...etin-carley-garner-post787342.html#post787342
Posted by: carleygarner
On: 04-06-2009 02:13 AM
June 3rd, 2009
Treasury bottom or false hope?
Treasury bonds and notes managed to thwart another wave of selling, but many are wondering whether it will last. If you ask us...we think that the sharp reversal in currencies, metals and other commodities suggests that it could. Once again, we can't rule out another retest of the lows...or the fact that we may be wrong, but things seem to be looking up for Treasuries.
The Fed bought $7.5 billion in Treasuries today but that likely wasn't the source of the buying; Bernanke didn't give any indication that the Fed's purchase were going to increase in size or frequency. In fact, the Fed chair did warn that rising U.S. debt is contributing to a spike in longer-term interest rates and it is necessary for congress to begin working on a plan to drastically reduce spending.
It seemed as though the day's gains were primarily the result of short covering triggered by lower equities and a decent ADP prediction; this was despite a slightly disappointing ISM Services figure. Whether the oversold bounce will continue seems highly dependent on whether the stock market and commodity correction extends itself.
For now we are cautiously looking for about 118'25 in the 30-year bond and perhaps 118 in the 10-year note. Assuming that our assumptions are correct, we could see 115'20ish in the 5-year note in the coming sessions.
Keep in mind while our bias is upward, there are several news events going into the weekend that could complicate things. Don't get overly bullish!
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
May 21 - Our clients were recommended to sell the July bond 112 puts for 25, fills ranged from 25 to 23. This option traded at just 10 ticks early in the day but an explosion in volatility allowed us to sell the option for a considerate amount of premium. The premise of the trade is to profit from declining volatility and or positive bond movement. The strike price is over 7 handles out of the money to give the position a considerable amount of room for error but of course the risk is unlimited below 112.
May 27 - We recommended that our clients sell the July bond 109 puts for 25 or better, some fills were reported near 30.
• May 28 - For those holding both the 112's and the 109's we lowered the delta of the trade by selling the July 123 calls for 30 and buying the 110 puts for 56. If we detect stability, we will salvage what we can for the long put and hold the strangle.
• May 29 - we sold the long 110 puts this morning for 30 and are holding the lopsided strangle looking for a decrease in volatility and accelerated premium erosion.
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
May 26 - Buy the June 5-year note at 116'05 or better ( you should have rolled this into the September contract, which would be equivalent to an entry near 115'06)
• May 29 - Look to liquidate this trade near 115'29
Eurodollar Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
All the best,
T2W Day Trading & Forex Forums
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/mon...etin-carley-garner-post787342.html#post787342
Posted by: carleygarner
On: 04-06-2009 02:13 AM
June 3rd, 2009
Treasury bottom or false hope?
Treasury bonds and notes managed to thwart another wave of selling, but many are wondering whether it will last. If you ask us...we think that the sharp reversal in currencies, metals and other commodities suggests that it could. Once again, we can't rule out another retest of the lows...or the fact that we may be wrong, but things seem to be looking up for Treasuries.
The Fed bought $7.5 billion in Treasuries today but that likely wasn't the source of the buying; Bernanke didn't give any indication that the Fed's purchase were going to increase in size or frequency. In fact, the Fed chair did warn that rising U.S. debt is contributing to a spike in longer-term interest rates and it is necessary for congress to begin working on a plan to drastically reduce spending.
It seemed as though the day's gains were primarily the result of short covering triggered by lower equities and a decent ADP prediction; this was despite a slightly disappointing ISM Services figure. Whether the oversold bounce will continue seems highly dependent on whether the stock market and commodity correction extends itself.
For now we are cautiously looking for about 118'25 in the 30-year bond and perhaps 118 in the 10-year note. Assuming that our assumptions are correct, we could see 115'20ish in the 5-year note in the coming sessions.
Keep in mind while our bias is upward, there are several news events going into the weekend that could complicate things. Don't get overly bullish!
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
May 21 - Our clients were recommended to sell the July bond 112 puts for 25, fills ranged from 25 to 23. This option traded at just 10 ticks early in the day but an explosion in volatility allowed us to sell the option for a considerate amount of premium. The premise of the trade is to profit from declining volatility and or positive bond movement. The strike price is over 7 handles out of the money to give the position a considerable amount of room for error but of course the risk is unlimited below 112.
May 27 - We recommended that our clients sell the July bond 109 puts for 25 or better, some fills were reported near 30.
• May 28 - For those holding both the 112's and the 109's we lowered the delta of the trade by selling the July 123 calls for 30 and buying the 110 puts for 56. If we detect stability, we will salvage what we can for the long put and hold the strangle.
• May 29 - we sold the long 110 puts this morning for 30 and are holding the lopsided strangle looking for a decrease in volatility and accelerated premium erosion.
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
May 26 - Buy the June 5-year note at 116'05 or better ( you should have rolled this into the September contract, which would be equivalent to an entry near 115'06)
• May 29 - Look to liquidate this trade near 115'29
Eurodollar Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
All the best,
T2W Day Trading & Forex Forums
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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australia down 1.82%
rio down 6%
billiton down nearly 4% overnight
rio down 6%
billiton down nearly 4% overnight
SuddenDeath
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good morning room
SuddenDeath
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US jobless data and productivity and costs at 1.30pm UK time
fast trader7
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Morning everyone,
Oil up, Pound going up after yesterday's loss.
We may be in for an up day
Happy trading
Oil up, Pound going up after yesterday's loss.
We may be in for an up day
Happy trading
wallstreet1928
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wallstreet1928
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closed position for 25 points profit
I am too - using Mozilla instead to connect, no idea why IE is having probs with it though.
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