You haven't been able to understand the difference between forecasting based on some bar or bar pair or pattern and implementing a trading plan. To say, for example, that price will or is likely to trade up after a hammer (or, if you prefer, an "upbar" on "high volume" after two or more "downbars" on "increasing" volume; "hammer" is, after all, shorthand) is a duh. But it has no meaning in terms of a trading strategy unless one has at least some idea -- and preferably a tested and clear idea -- of what the probabilities are that price will in fact trade up and of the probable extent of the move, all of which is necessarily tied to the trader's aggressiveness and risk tolerance, and all of which is learned through research and testing, not "rules" which tell you what you could have made last Tuesday, or that "there was money to be made" last Friday (or whenever).
I've "called" the last two turning points in advance, but so what unless the trader has some plan in place to take advantage of those turning points. Instead, thousands of posts are devoted to the subject of what's going to happen next when very few pay any attention whatsoever to what's happening right in front of them. Therefore, they are generally (a) unprepared and (b) late, both of which increase risk.
Using the weekly and daily charts of the NYSE, for example, how does one use what he knows of the dynamics of volume and of price and volume relationships to decide which swing low he's going to buy, if any, and in real time, not what he should have done last week or last month? If he hasn't the slightest idea, then all the hindsight analysis is pointless.
--Db
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