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Jobs data out and worse than expected. Probably means that the dow will tip down at the open and then climb for the rest of the day based on the usual excuses that the data is a lagging indicator and it is seasonal and spikes are to be expected with data of this type 
The US seems to be taking any data at the moment and finding the best of it. Give them a piece of coal and they'll tell you it could have been a diamond.
Don't take my tongue in cheek forecast as a serious comment but don't be surprised if this market carries on being irrational.
The US seems to be taking any data at the moment and finding the best of it. Give them a piece of coal and they'll tell you it could have been a diamond.
Don't take my tongue in cheek forecast as a serious comment but don't be surprised if this market carries on being irrational.
Paddington
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Jobs data worse than expected. from Yahoo
"Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 last week from a revised 434,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected initial claims to edge down slightly to 425,000 from the 430,000 originally reported for the week ending June 28."
The futures seem to be leading to a good start for "The path of Tom" this morning.
ever hopeful of a slide in the mkts (well it's about time!)......
Paddington Bear
"Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 last week from a revised 434,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected initial claims to edge down slightly to 425,000 from the 430,000 originally reported for the week ending June 28."
The futures seem to be leading to a good start for "The path of Tom" this morning.
ever hopeful of a slide in the mkts (well it's about time!)......
Paddington Bear
Bullish Bear
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Tom,
I find it strange that you put times on your Path but not figures....is this so it can be applyed across the 3 main indecies or is there another reason?
I find it strange that you put times on your Path but not figures....is this so it can be applyed across the 3 main indecies or is there another reason?
Re: JE2000 point on jobs data:
Concensus expectation was 420k; actual figure was 439k. Bulls would have wanted 410k/less, adding weight to their positive outlook on economic growth.
SB s appeared to drop circa 25/30 points but recovery to/waivering at 9100 level right now.
As per jpwone comment, we're experiencing stubborn resistance to the downside and Tom's path for today appears to fit the situation well.
Concensus expectation was 420k; actual figure was 439k. Bulls would have wanted 410k/less, adding weight to their positive outlook on economic growth.
SB s appeared to drop circa 25/30 points but recovery to/waivering at 9100 level right now.
As per jpwone comment, we're experiencing stubborn resistance to the downside and Tom's path for today appears to fit the situation well.
bullish bear, if I told you how I did the path you would understand, but I dont want to give that away....The key is direction rather than velocity...I think I have explained this in depth to a320 before.....it is the tide anology....the element missing is the human emotion....So I can tell what the direction should be, but I can say how strong it is going to be.......I can tell the time but not force....I hope this helps
I am on Bloomberg all weekend for the moneyshow...she is sooo lovely that girl....hmm....
anyway, a guy I respect for his analysis ( I rarely listen to any) told me that the gap lower today in the SP will have all the bulls falling over themselves to buy...My take is the opposite, so it will be very interesting to see who will be right.....
I have done some work on the circle, but I cant print it as it is handdrawn....Essentially I got the high like many other using 61.8. I just used circle geometry and a few arches...what bothers me is that there is the potential for a new high, as per using this method...just an observation for now....good luck today all
I am on Bloomberg all weekend for the moneyshow...she is sooo lovely that girl....hmm....
anyway, a guy I respect for his analysis ( I rarely listen to any) told me that the gap lower today in the SP will have all the bulls falling over themselves to buy...My take is the opposite, so it will be very interesting to see who will be right.....
I have done some work on the circle, but I cant print it as it is handdrawn....Essentially I got the high like many other using 61.8. I just used circle geometry and a few arches...what bothers me is that there is the potential for a new high, as per using this method...just an observation for now....good luck today all
Bullish Bear
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hi Tom,
tx for answering. I'm not gonna hammer away at it. I obviously am looking at this from a different perspective. On a tidal analysis can you not look up tidal heights for rivers? so you know that the high tide on a particular day is gonna be X and on the next day Y as well as knowing what time?
tx for answering. I'm not gonna hammer away at it. I obviously am looking at this from a different perspective. On a tidal analysis can you not look up tidal heights for rivers? so you know that the high tide on a particular day is gonna be X and on the next day Y as well as knowing what time?
hi Tom,
tx for answering. I'm not gonna hammer away at it. I obviously am looking at this from a different perspective. On a tidal analysis can you not look up tidal heights for rivers? so you know that the high tide on a particular day is gonna be X and on the next day Y as well as knowing what time?
YES, but you cant look up the wind, you cant look up temperature....this means something in this matter
tx for answering. I'm not gonna hammer away at it. I obviously am looking at this from a different perspective. On a tidal analysis can you not look up tidal heights for rivers? so you know that the high tide on a particular day is gonna be X and on the next day Y as well as knowing what time?
YES, but you cant look up the wind, you cant look up temperature....this means something in this matter
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