Here is a bit more information about the Dow spreadsheet. I don't use it for trading. It just helps me work out when the odds are more or less favorable.
The highlighted percentages show:-
+50, the % of times the Dow goes up at least 50 points from the previous close
-50, the % of times the Dow goes down at least 50 points from the previous close.
Both, the % of times the Dow goes both up and down at least 50 points from the previous close.
(+)(-), the % of times the Dow goes both up and down at least 1 point from the previous close.
One way, the % of times the Dow goes only one way from the previous close.
H/L 20 close, the % of times the Dow closes within 20 points of the high or low of the day.
Inside 20%, the % of times the Dow closes within 20% of the high or low of the day.
Here are the conclusions I drew after 851 trading days:-
From the last 851 trading days. From the previous days close:
504 days reached at least +50 points
529 days reached at least -50 points
202 days went both up and down at least 50 points
95 days only went one way, averaging a 154 point move
The average rise was 83 points
The average fall was 93 points
In conclusion,
In the last 851 days, the dow has from the previous days close:
Risen at least 50 points 59% of the time
Fallen at least 50 points 62% of the time
Gone up and down 50 points 24% of the time
Only gone one way 11% of the time
Like I said before, my excel skills are poor and it is worth checking the numbers for mistakes. This is not a guide to trading, just some numbers that I find interesting.
Edit:-
I hadn't updated the results on the spread sheet so I have attached an updated version.
