US Indices Intra-day Trading for August 2003

Good morning,

The price action last night was not particular convincing for the bulls but we still closed above 985 and the 61.8% retracement of 986. Today the market will be bullish above 892 and bearish below 985.

I am looking for much higher prices in the indices over the next 2 weeks. I mentioned this in an article I send out to you yesterday about the Fibonacci counts for the years going back. I would like to see the Dow charge through the big 9350 number and go to 9900 before we turn. I am leaning towards the end of the month as the high.

Stocks are in general tired here and momentum will be the key. If we can get a first hour close above 992 it probably means that the bulls have got a market on close buy program coming. The option expiration is on Friday but I have seen no discernible trend as to the direction of the expiration.

The path for today shows that the market is moving higher. However, 9310 is very important from a geometry point of view and I cant rule out that the rally on the path comes from lower levels.

So, all in all, I am bullish and believe the market will move up through the 9350 and get very close to 10,000. However, this will in my view set up a short position.

Tom
 
now I suppose I am going to have to show you the article as well:


DOES FIBONACCI KNOW THE DESTINY OF THE STOCK MARKET?
The bulls are hoping that the rally will continue as the global economy improves. Their problem is a little different to the private investor. The big institutional investors have to be fully invested at all times and can only hope that the economies are picking up across the world. The private investor to some extent has the option to sell his portfolio or even make money as the market moves lower through spread betting companies.

My analysis has been fairly bullish since end of February this year. However, I am now coming around to the idea that the month of August will mark a major turn in the market.

For those of you who have lived on the moon for the last 100 years, you will need a very fast introduction to Fibonacci theory. Many traders use a number sequence called Fibonacci numbers. Adding the preceding number with the current number to get the next number derives these numbers. The numbers are 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89 etc.

This technique is essentially counting backwards to other significant dates in the history of the stock market over the last 100 years.

Here is what I found:

In 2002 the market topped on the 22nd August, which is 1 year ago. The market declined 20% in 50 days, or 1800 Dow points.

In 2001 the market topped again on the 24th August, which is 2 years ago. The market dropped 2400 points in 20 days.

In 2000 the market topped on the 6th September, which is 3 years ago. The market declined 1400 points in 40 days.

In 1998 the market topped in July but had a slight reversal in August. The market topped on the 20th August and dropped 1200 points in little more than a week. This is 5 years ago.

In 1995 the market turned higher on the 24th of August and continued higher for the rest of the year. This is 8 years ago.

In 1990 the market was in a downtrend but in the 15th of august the market made a high before dropping 15% in 8 trading sessions. This is 13 years ago.

In 1982 the market made a huge reversal on the 9th August. The market rallied 30% for the rest of the year. This is 21 years ago. That was also the beginning of the grand bull market, which lasted the next 18 years.

In 1948 the month of August marked a major reversal, which only last 15 trading days. The pattern on the charts from 1948 is identical to the pattern we are seeing right now in the Dow. This is 55 years ago.

In 1914 the market closed at the end of the month due to the outbreak of WW1.It did not reopen until December that year. This is 89 years ago.

What all this points to in my opinion is the possibility of a major turn based on these cycles. It looks to me as if the latter part of August could mark a turn in the market which could lead to a very shift sell-off in the major stock indices, like we have seen in the bond market over the last 8 weeks. It is not very often that you get a cluster of Fibonacci numbers coming together like this. The last time I recall seeing a bigger cluster like the present one was in August 1987. Back then the market fell off a cliff in a spectacular crash in October. My conclusion, while not predicting a 1987-style crash, is at least to buckle up for a bumpy ride for the next 5 months. Good old Fibonacci may just have nailed the market again.
 
not really sure why no one is taking about the USA indexes since 3pm, did the downfall got many of u by surprise? hope not.

**************************************************
a los is a success if you followed your trading system.
 
Theres nothing to say, Genti!

Lots of sideways action, a big drop, then lots more sideways action!

Either that, or I'm looking at a different chart to you ;)
 
I did very well today thank you.....closed shorts at target and just reversed now with 1 contract long.....expecting to see 30 or so up from here, and close back in yesterdays range befor FeD statement
 
i am expecting a big turn in 15-25 minutes....it should be big...i am buying a little now, without confirmation.....
 
is it my grammer, or should I tell Bramleyman, that the FED was yesterday? :)

no, I think I know what you mean, but 30 what? Dow, FTSE, DAX,
 
Just gone long £1 per point on S&P @86.5.

im wondering if Bigbusiness has gone ahead with his 50p, sorry i ment 25p
 
Now Now! Genti

There is no need for that.

Bigbusiness is training hard to retire early.
 
For those that are not faint hearted - there is some good money to be made on the dow tonight.
 
RGlenn, thats a rather pointless statement isnt it? There is always money to be made (and lost) and ALL the markets ALL day. What makes tonight so different?
 
rossored

It's pointless to those that do not know what they are doing!

So if the cap fits as they say!
 
boy, i just took out 6 ticks per contract in the DAX. I have taken out 2 SP points per contract.....

it is happening now, live, on radio t2W....with your host sunman, flanked by Rosse and Rglen as commentators
 
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