Ukraine invasion

[Rufus_Leakey]

Breaking news. . .
Apparently, Putin's been on the hotline to 10 Downing St. and the White House asking the west to impose yet more sanctions. More the merrier, he's absolutely lovin' 'em . . .

View attachment 318612
...
You just keep clinging to what you want to believe, what you wish would happen and ignore the reality.

Speaking of reality ...

Russian ruble's return to pre-war levels no sign of economy back on track

Initial financial panic subsided in Russia, but doesn't show resilience amid cutting sanctions, says exiled economist Sergei Guriev - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Analysis: Russia's rouble rebound not quite what it seems

Six weeks after Russia sent troops into Ukraine, the rouble has staged an apparently extraordinary recovery, but all is not what it seems and the exchange rate used in everyday transactions is sometimes very different to the official one.

www.reuters.com

How Russia made its ruble the world’s top-performing currency

The ruble's apparent resilience isn't the best way to gauge the effectiveness of sanctions.

qz.com

The rally, experts say, is largely artificial, the result of capital controls imposed by Moscow in the wake of Western sanctions. While the ruble may look promising on paper, in reality, many money changers have stopped dealing in the currency because of the extreme volatility in its exchange rate due to low trade volumes.

So the apparent strength of the ruble, does not necessarily mean the Russian economy is strong.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

 

[timsk]

So the apparent strength of the ruble, does not necessarily mean the Russian economy is strong.

Hi R_L,
Yeah, fair points. However, if the trajectory of the Ruble was reversed, such that it was water-falling and Biden and Co were gloating how they'd 'turned the Ruble into rubble' - I suspect that whatever economic woes Russia may have now would be a whole heap worse. And then some! Besides which, the claim that all is not as rosy in Russia as its currency would have us believe can also be said of the U.S. and DXY. Plenty of Americans are struggling big time, yet the dollar has been surging ever upwards - save for a little pull back in the last week or so. Of course, Biden spending tens of $billions on sending thousands of young Ukrainians to an early grave isn't helping, which his electorate will surely wake up to before long.

If I had to put money on which currency will collapse first - the Ruble or the Dollar - I'd bet on the latter. Many pundits, especially those from the Austrian school of economics, say its demise is just a matter of time and that the 'crack up boom' that often occurs immediately before a currency collapse has already begun.
Tim.

 

[timsk]

Whilst denial that Russia is winning the war remains strong on this forum, those who can see the writing's on the wall for Zelensky and Ukraine are starting to break ranks so they don't get caught on the wrong side of history. From Kissinger to the EU, in the coming weeks and months, we'll see many more people, governments - and everyone in between - do what those of us on my side of the debate have been saying from the start; call a ceasefire, then negotiate and compromise. . .

EU cracks widen over Ukraine as Italy, Hungary urge truce​

 

[CavaliereVerde]

I have a question for the "compromisers".
In you opinion what is the future of Transinstria, Abcasia and South Ossetia ?

 

[counter_violent]

It's going so well inside Russia.

Russia's Putin orders $2.3 bln pension hike as inflation bites

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Wednesday for an 8.6% rise in public pensions this year, slightly above the inflation rate, increasing state social spending by another $2.3 billion as consumer price inflation hovers near six-year highs.

www.reuters.com

To keep the sub class onside, Putin has raised the pensions by 8.5%, which will do nothing to dampen the internal inflation problem.
Also, he has removed the upper age limit for conscripts to the army. (must be running out of cannon fodder)
Also, he has increased wages for cannon fodder serving abroad. That will be a real moral booster no doubt !

 

[CavaliereVerde]

He takes care of his supporters: pensioners...
In the mean time young professionals and businessmen are leaving.

 

[counter_violent]

The West won't make that mistake again. Doing business with a totally unreliable partner costs a fortune in the long run.

All adds to Russia's demise.

Putin seeking 'legal solutions' to seize assets of Western companies exiting Russia

The Russian government is trying to retaliate against Western sanctions by seizing the assets Western companies left behind in the country.

fortune.com

 

[Atilla]

So what is the inflation rate at home then?

Fuel and food poverty are rife in the UK and US! Soon will touch the EU as well.

Wait till election time and see how people vote?

As elected governments fall smart politicians will re-appraise what they have gained by sh!t stirring in Ukraine.

Same ol political drivel to divert attention from one's demise by talking about neighbours.

You two CV's sound like you are joined at the hip

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Same ol political drivel to divert attention from one's demise by talking about neighbours.

This is true and so?
Even if war ends today there will be other distractions: monkeys and killers...
By the way there are other topics about politics in UK , US and EU.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

I have a question for the "compromisers".
In you opinion what is the future of Transinstria, Abcasia and South Ossetia ?

Transnistria resisted to the violence attacks by foreign intelligence.
If Moldavia accepts their autonomy, the relations get normal (no sanctions against each other) and they find a way that the Russian peacekeepers are not needed any more,

In Georgia, it is more difficult because there are U.S.-controlled bio labs and many conflicting interests come together.
That must be solved first.

Another possible conflict zone in that area:
In Belarus the U.S. funded and supported Belarus Nazi movement is still not really relevant, they try to play the same play as in Euromaidan in Ukraine to radicalize domestic people as fascists, mostly youngsters.
If I find the links again I will post them here.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

mmmhhh ok so would you live in Transnistria with "autonomy" and "peacekeepers"?
Imagine you are offered the same job in Donetsk and Dnipro, what would you do?
I suggest you to do more research about life in separatist countries liberated by Putin's tanks.

Real and genuine autonomy comes from the people, from legally elected local authorities, not from separatists appointed by a foreing army.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

mmmhhh ok so would you live in Transnistria with "autonomy" and "peacekeepers"?
Imagine you are offered the same job in Donetsk and Dnipro, what would you do?
I suggest you to do more research about life in separatist countries liberated by Putin's tanks.

Real and genuine autonomy comes from the people, from legally elected local authorities, not from separatists appointed by a foreing army.

None of these countries are a place to go by choice if there are alternatives.
But also not Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Tajikistan and others.
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union they left a lot of conflicts as the countries outside of Russia were built by soviet arbitrariness.
The U.S. tried to use them only for their own economic, military or control advantages, never for the people living there.
That increased the conflict potential.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

So US is the problem and separatists backed by Putin is a solution.
I agree that many borders in the world are arbitrary and come from former empires, look to Africa...
The matter is that in Russia there are enclaves with language and etnicity completely differtent from slavic-russian but Putin never thought to shrink Russia to give them autonomy.

The U.S. tried to use it only for their own economic, military or control advantages, never for the people living there.

And Putin is doing exactly the same.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

The matter is that in Russia there are enclaves with language and etnicity completely differtent from slavic-russian but Putin never thought to shrink Russia to give them autonomy.

The difference is that in Russia there is no discrimination, torture or arrest because of ethnic origin or language. (At least not yet, nationalistic fascistic groups are still not common there.)

That's what they failed in the new countries which were part of the former USSR. Nationalism was not a virtue in the USSR. After 1991 suddenly there was a nation built by soviet arbitrariness and not by historic origin.
A nation without really own history, since at least 1919.

With the lack of heroic history they took the Nazi collaborateur Bandera as national hero in January 2010 which was revoked in April of the same year by a district administrative court in Donetzk and officially annulled in 2011. An attempt by the Ukrainian parliament to confer the award again in 2018 was rejected in 2019 (same source).

The coat of arms of Ukraine still uses the sign of Bandera's OUN-M, which was not interested in the Eastern part of Ukraine as far as I could research it, just trying to get independence for the Western (Polish) part. If someone finds a map of the OUN-M and OUN-B territorial aims, please share it.

You find strong relations between Ukrainians and the U.S. government over decades in the - not completely documented - Ukrainian Congress Committee of America.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

In Georgia, it is more difficult because there are U.S.-controlled bio labs and many conflicting interests come together.
That must be solved first.

Have you noticed the population of South Ossetia? 55k
What is the sense of an independent state?
It is just land grabbing to punish Georgia.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Have you noticed the population of South Ossetia? 55k
What is the sense of an independent state?
It is just land grabbing to punish Georgia.

I've also seen that there is a population in the whole "country" of less than a bigger city in Germany.
But "Approximately 100,000 Ossetians fled Georgia proper and South Ossetia, while 23,000 Georgians left South Ossetia."

This conflict is elder than the shutdown of the USSR. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian–Ossetian_conflict

For me this is another typical case of causing future conflicts as a result of building the countries outside of Russia by rudeless soviet arbitrariness.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Do you want to see Dr. Putin? (@ 2:31)

 

[CavaliereVerde]

After 1991 suddenly there was a nation built by soviet arbitrariness and not by historic origin.
A nation without really own history, since at least 1919.

The same with Belarus, but as long as you are a friend of Putin you can keep your soviet arbitrary borders...
Have you digged on historic origin of Donbass?
I did it and it is much less than Ukraine, an arbitrary creation of Putin.
At least ossetians are a people...

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

The same with Belarus,

.. and Poland and a lot of other countries in that area which grapped territory from their neighbors after World War II.

If you go to any spot in these East European areas and go back in history century by century you can discuss who is the legal owner of the place as there were so many different interests and conflicts in the history over these territories.

There was a lot of territory given to Ukraine during USSR existence:

History of Territories Annexed to Ukraine - I Love Kyiv

Given the current political climate in Ukraine (circa 2024), I found this map to be really interesting. Territories annexed to Ukraine Most folks are unaware that a portion of Poland was annexed after World War II and given to Ukraine. That's right, some of modern-day Ukraine was once Poland. In…

ilovekyiv.com

The video there also shows a hypothetical border between Western and East Ukraine where the differences in ethnic origin, culture and language appear from hstorical roots.

So it can easily be understood that the East of Ukraine can't feel Ukrainian like the Western part, as the government failed to integrate them, also offering a certain autonomy.