Ukraine invasion

CavaliereVerde said:
1 I win 100
2 I win 50
3 you win 50
4 you win 100

Sorry but your conditions are not fine for me, immagine Ukraine recaptures Kherson and the landbridge between Crimea and Donbas you still would win, this does not make sense.
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CV,
You haven't addressed the points of my last post, your terms are fuzzy, ill defined and vague. And what are these + / - figures?
1. Ukraine restoring pre war borders: +50
Too ambiguous - what, exactly are 'pre-war borders'? If this is Lukansk and Donetsk - why not say so? Be specific. Otherwise, come the deadline, we'll be arguing about what constitutes 'pre-war borders'.
2. Ukraine restoring 2014 legal borders: +100
As per 1, above. If you're referring to Crimea - why not say so?
3. Ukraine conceding land: -50
How much - one blade of grass? Two? This is meaningless as it stands.
4. Ukraine conceding more than 25% : -100
Who determines the 25% and does it include or exclude Crimea?

Why not just admit you don't want to accept my very simple and straightforward terms and want to introduce all these ambiguous grey areas is so that you can wriggle out of settling the wager on 25th Feb' 2024 when you lose it - which you surely will?
Tim.
 
1. Full territorial integrity, the borders of 2013.
2. The land Ukraine was controlling in Jan 2022.
3. Russia controlling more than Jan 2022.
4. Russia controlling significant more than today, we are at 20%.
Pretty straightforward, if the war ends today you win for condition 3.
 
CavaliereVerde said:
1. Full territorial integrity, the borders of 2013.
2. The land Ukraine was controlling in Jan 2022.
3. Russia controlling more than Jan 2022.
4. Russia controlling significant more than today, we are at 20%.
Pretty straightforward, if the war ends today you win for condition 3.
Click to expand...
CV,
You're ignoring - deliberately or otherwise - the very simple points I'm making. So, for the last lime, here's the wager based on point #2 in your list - take it or leave it . . .

1. If, on the 24th February 2024, Ukraine controls equal to or greater than the amount of territory they had under their control in January 2022, then you (CavaliereVerde) win the bet.
2. If, on the 24th February 2024, Ukraine controls less than the amount of territory they had under their control in January 2022, then I (timsk) win the bet.
3. The winner receives 1oz of 999 fine silver (the loser can choose whether it's a coin or bar), to include delivery to an address specified by the winner.

All the other stuff on your list just complicates the wager unnecessarily. So, this is it bar one last caveat. Namely, in the event of a dispute come 25th Feb' 2024, we need to appoint an arbiter to settle it and agree to abide by his or her decision. In principle, I'm happy to go with whoever you suggest - c_v perhaps - if he's willing?
Tim.
 
timsk said:
CV,
You're ignoring - deliberately or otherwise - the very simple points I'm making. So, for the last lime, here's the wager based on point #2 in your list - take it or leave it . . .

1. If, on the 24th February 2024, Ukraine controls equal to or greater than the amount of territory they had under their control in January 2022, then you (CavaliereVerde) win the bet.
2. If, on the 24th February 2024, Ukraine controls less than the amount of territory they had under their control in January 2022, then I (timsk) win the bet.
3. The winner receives 1oz of 999 fine silver (the loser can choose whether it's a coin or bar), to include delivery to an address specified by the winner.

All the other stuff on your list just complicates the wager unnecessarily. So, this is it bar one last caveat. Namely, in the event of a dispute come 25th Feb' 2024, we need to appoint an arbiter to settle it and agree to abide by his or her decision. In principle, I'm happy to go with whoever you suggest - c_v perhaps - if he's willing?
Tim.
Click to expand...

So let me get this straight.

Russia controlled only Crimea pre invasion and Ukraine controlled the rest?

Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence in 2014, are we saying they were still under Ukrainian control pre Russian invasion 24th Feb 2022 ?
 
Pro Russian separatist controlled only 1/5 of Donbas before the invasion.
Zelensky stated that there would be a truce if the situation is back to Jan 2022.
So it is important that "equal" control is a victory condition for Ukraine.
Without any territorial gain due to invasion I win the bet.
 
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Rufus_Leakey said:
Is this site more accurate?
tass.com

Putin issues decree to increase army’s standard strength by 137,000 as of 2023

According to the decree, the standard strength of the Russian armed forces next year will be set at 2,039,758, including 1,150,628 servicemen
tass.com tass.com
Why would such a powerful country need more soldiers? Maybe Russia is preparing for a very special military occupationoperation?;)
Click to expand...

Looks like the same numbers.

BBC must just have gotten lucky with their wild guess.
 
counter_violent said:
TBH Tim, I don't feel neutral enough so I would have to decline.
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Well c_v, even though we're on opposite sides of the argument, I trust you to do the right thing - whichever side your decision favours. I mean, suppose the wager was to be decided today, would you have any difficulty in reaching a decision? It's a no-brainer!
counter_violent said:
In any case, I might want a piece of the action. :ROFLMAO:
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By all means, but don't leave it too long - it's not an open ended offer!
;)
 
counter_violent said:
Looks like the same numbers.

BBC must just have gotten lucky with their wild guess.
Click to expand...

It's the reporting of the news and the twist they give.

Like Russian army fires at hospital...

Not like Russian army fires at Ukrainian army taking up positions in schools and hospitals.

We then get the Amnestry report 6 months later. LOL.


- Western officials say 80,000 troops killed or wounded! An opinion.

- Recruiting from prisions promises of freedom and money. Not freedom and wages. This is a little like the stating the Avoz battalion who surrendered at Maripol were extracted out by the Russians. Amazing reporting of events as news.

- Limited enthusiasm - is merely an opinion. The intervention still has popular support in Russia. Armies (not just Russia) always have problem recruiting personnel. Same goes for the British https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/why-is-british-army-recruiting-in-such-a-bad-state/ and US army as it happens https://www.heritage.org/defense/co...ort-recruitment-heres-what-we-can-do-about-it

- Front lines have hardly moved... Well that's because Russia is not invading but just stopping the Avoz battalion in the east from killing more civilians than the 14000 already dead. It's a FREAKING intervention force. Not an invading conquering one.

The numbers on the ground have been discussed numerous times.

If one hold's up that shitty BBC loaded and opinion based news as being remotely accurate then one has to be STUPID beyond ignorance not to see the difference.

Tass on the other hand just reports the news and numbers. No opinion, not loaded with bias or claptrap nonsense.


Do you not see the difference?
 
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Atilla said:
It's a FREAKING intervention force. Not an invading conquering one.
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I would call it an occupation force, the initial goal wasn't to face and confront the whole ukranian army on the battlefield.
The goal was to scare Ukraine with a swift mechanized assault, russians had parade uniforms in their tanks.
Taking Ukranie like they took Crimea, with mostly no fight, just the fuel and rations necessary to reach Kiev.
 
Well I hear referendums are being planned for the two regions.

One might call it a liberating force from the Nazi Avoz battalion as well.

As long as there is peace, deaths and persecutions stop no point arguing about potatoes and tomatoes. (y)
 
Atilla said:
One might call it a liberating force from the Nazi Avoz battalion as well.
Click to expand...
Yes that is the russian propaganda position.
The total destructuion of Mariupol, a city with 500k inhabitants to defeat a single battalion.
This is a stain in russian reputation that will never be canceled, worse than Grozny.
 
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